The AL East’s second place team comes to Baltimore this weekend, with the O’s once again looking to prove they can put up a fight against baseball’s best teams.
Hey, didn’t we just see you guys? Nine days after splitting four games against the Rays in Tampa, the Orioles welcome their AL East rivals north to Camden Yards. Baltimore will hope they can earn a series victory against the visiting Rays, but based on how the O’s are playing lately, it’s not likely.
After going 7-3 between June 11th and June 20th, the Orioles are back to scuffling, having dropped four of their last five. Offensive consistency has been a major problem all season in Baltimore, but it’s gotten especially bad over the last week. In three of those four losses, opposing pitchers took no-hitters into the 7th inning, as the Baltimore bats continue to wilt under the summer heat.
The weather in Tampa was a big discussion when the Orioles traveled to George M. Steinbrenner Field, with interim manager Tony Mansolino comparing it to “playing in the jungle.” After a recent heat wave in Maryland, things should be slightly cooler this weekend, meaning we hopefully won’t have to rely on weather as an excuse for the O’s performance.
Ever since MLB reduced the number of division games in 2023, the Orioles have actually been better against the Rays in Tampa than in Baltimore. Over the last two seasons, the O’s went 10-3 at the Trop but were only 7-6 against the Rays in Camden Yards.
In many ways, these two teams are having a Freaky Friday moment in how their 2025 seasons are playing out. The Rays were thought as potential AL East cellar dwellers before the season, with the O’s expected to be in the mix for their second division crown in three years. Instead, the Orioles are in last place while the Rays currently sit one game back of their landlords, the Yankees, for first place in the East.
You might think that the Rays’ impressive start to the year was built on the backs of the offensive boost that comes from playing home games in a minor league park. Instead, they’ve been one of the best road teams in baseball, leading MLB with a .613 winning percentage away from the Gulf Coast.
Game 1: Friday, June 27th, 7:05pm ET, Apple TV+
Probable pitchers: RHP Tomoyuki Sugano (5-4, 3.55 ERA) vs. RHP Ryan Pepiot (5-6, 3.04 ERA)
The results from Tommy Sugar have been a little less sweet for O’s fans over the past month. Sugano has a 4.58 ERA in the month of June and has been struggling to go deep into starts. After averaging six innings per start over his first 12 starts, the 35-year-old rookie from Japan has failed to make it out of the fifth inning in any of his last three outings.
The heat certainly seems to be playing a factor in Sugano’s recent dip in form. The Yomiuri Giants, Sugano’s former team in Japan, played their home games in the Tokyo Dome. Even when playing outside, temperatures in Japan rarely rise above the mid-80s, so the oppressive heat of the East Coast summers is something foreign to Sugano.
It seems like Sugano’s struggles with the heat and keeping his hands dry from sweat have led him to remix his pitching approach. After relying heavily on his splitter and cutter throughout a successful May, Sugano’s cutter usage has dropped drastically while we’ve seen an uptick in his sweeper and four-seam fastball. Opponents have been teeing off on his sweeper lately and it’s made it hard for him to get right-handed hitters out. Over his four starts in June, righties are hitting .356 with a .578 slugging percentage against Sugano.
Opposing the Orioles’ Japanese sensation is 27-year-old righty Ryan Pepiot. After injuries limited Pepiot to 130 innings in 2024, he’s healthy and playing his best baseball in 2025. The former Dodgers top prospect is on pace for 185 innings in 2025 and should make 30+ starts for the first time in his big league career.
Pepiot’s 3.04 ERA and 1.10 WHIP mean he doesn’t run into trouble a lot, but when he does run into to trouble it’s usally against his fastball. Ryan O’Hearn has crushed fastballs all year, so look for him to break out of his mini slump (6-26 in the last three series) against Pepiot.
Game 2: Saturday, June 28th, 4:05pm ET, MASN/MASN+
Probable pitchers: RHP Zach Eflin (6-4, 5.64 ERA) vs. RHP Zack Littell (6-7, 3.78 ERA)
Saturday we get a Zach vs. Zack battle as Zach Eflin seeks revenge against his former team. The Orioles’ Zach has seemingly lost his feel over his last couple of starts. He gave up 12 hits and seven runs over five innings in Tampa 11 days ago, before getting chased after giving up six runs in three innings last Saturday in the Bronx.
Limiting the home run ball has been the biggest predictor of success for Eflin and the Orioles this season. In the six Eflin starts where the Orioles won, he’s allowed all of two HRs over 36.2 innings. In the five Eflin starts that didn’t go the Orioles’ way, he’s 13 HRs in 24.1 innings—including allowing five homers over his last two starts.
Eflin’s only faced the Rays once before in Baltimore, as he took the L against Tampa last September after giving up 3 ER and 8 hits over 5.2 innings. The majority of his ex-teammates love facing Eflin, as eight players on the Rays have an OPS over 1.000 against the 10th-year vet (though no one has faced him more than 9 times).
Saturday could be a get-right game for Gunnar Henderson. After he saw his 14-game hit streak snapped last Saturday against the Yankees, Gunnar is 0-for-14 with five Ks. He’s historically crushed the Rays’ Zack, though, having gone 7-for-18 with two HRs in his career vs. Littell.
Game 3: Sunday, June 29th, 1:35pm ET, MASN/MASN+
Probable pitchers: RHP Dean Kremer (6-7, 4.60 ERA) vs. RHP Taj Bradley (5-5, 4.57 ERA)
If the Orioles can win one of Games 1 and 2, they’ll feel pretty good about their chances at taking the series with Bradley on the mound. The 24-year-old has a 8.71 career ERA against Baltimore and is giving up a .295 average against Orioles hitters. No opponent has hit more home runs against Bradley, with the former Top 20 prospect allowing nine long balls in 20.2 IP against the O’s.
Last time out in Tampa, Bradley was only able to get four outs as Baltimore handed him the shortest start of his career. Colton Cowser started the onslaught in the 2nd inning with a three-run homer, Cedric Mullins added a solo shot and Gunnar Henderson chased him with a two-RBI single. Bradley would finish with a line of 1.1 IP, 6 H, 7 R (6 ER), 1 BB and 2 Ks as the O’s raced out to an 8-0 lead (we won’t talk about what happened after).
Kremer was one of the few Baltimore pitchers to pitch well last time these two teams faced. He earned the win after pitching five innings while allowing only one run on four hits and four Ks. While the Orioles have been a nightmare for Bradley, the Rays are usually a welcome sight for Kremer. The 29-year-old has a 2.25 ERA over 40 innings against Tampa, holding Rays hitters to a .228 average.