The last time the Orioles played the Red Sox, we had no idea how bad the O’s would be.
Things—you know—could be going better for the Orioles, whose season has taken a sharp left turn since they last saw the Boston Red Sox. If you’ll recall, that was the second series of the year, after the Orioles had split a four-game opener in Toronto. Back at home in Oriole Park, Baltimore would take the first game against then-starter option Sean Newcomb (no longer starting for Boston) before dropping the next two against Tanner Houck and Garrett Crochet, respectively. Since then—you know—the Birds have gone 13-28.
As for Boston, one of those big-budget teams always predicted to be at the top of the AL East, their season is going fine, in the sense that, despite being just below .500 (25-26), neck and neck with Toronto, and 5.5 games behind division-leader New York, they’re still very much in the playoff hunt. They’re a good-hitting team (sixth in MLB in runs scored), but not so much in pitching (an MLB eighth-worst in runs allowed).
When last we met these guys, Rafael Devers was still grouching about being displaced from third base by Alex Bregman, and wasn’t hitting. It was definitely “a thing.” Flash forward to late May, and the experiment is working fiendishly well for Boston: Devers is OPS’ing .931 as a DH and Bregman .954 as a 3B.
But the Red Sox have personnel issues elsewhere on the diamond. First baseman Triston Casas was seriously injured early in May and the replacement-by-committee approach is not working. Top prospect Kristian Campbell is hitting .229 and putting up negative WAR at second base. Shortstop Trevor Story is OPS’ing .616. Meanwhile, top outfield prospect Roman Anthony is lighting up Triple-A, hitting .322 with six home runs, leading for calls to bring him up, regardless of a position backlog.
When last these two teams met, there was also lots of talk about the fact that the Red Sox had aggressively pursued Garrett Crochet in the offseason and the Orioles hadn’t. These days, it’s impossible to deny that, whatever the front office’s plans were for the Orioles rotation, they’ve failed. So we’re not blame-shifting when we say that the Red Sox’s experience so far serves as a reminder that pitching excellence isn’t just a matter of signing checks.
Other than Crochet, the starting rotation hasn’t been great. Tanner Houck has been poor, with an -1.6 WAR and 8.04 ERA. Lucas Giolito is also in negative WAR, with a 7.08 ERA/5.50 FIP. Longtime Dodger Walker Buehler and fourth-year hurler Brayan Bello have identical, just-above-average ERA+’s of 104. Hunter Dobbins has been good, 2-1 with a 3.62 ERA, but not fantastic.
The Orioles will miss the Red Sox’s best and worst this time around, settling for Giolito, Bello, Dobbins, and Buehler.
Game 1 – Thursday, 6:45 pm, MASN
- Cade Povich (1-3, 5.23 ERA, 38 SO) v. Lucas Giolito (1-1, 7.08 ERA, 17 SO)
The Orioles are still trying to figure out whether they have much of a starter in Povich, who, along with Yennier Cano, came over from Minnesota in 2022 for then-All Star closer Jorge López. A 5.23 ERA doesn’t inspire tons of confidence; a 4.77 FIP is better. His last five starts have been mixed: he allowed seven runs to Cincinnati and five to Minnesota, but one, two, and three, respectively, versus Washington (twice) and New York. Over his last two weeks, hitters are batting .158 against him, so that’s nice, although he’s still getting crushed by righties (.304 average, .876 slugging).
Another Boston player whose “Sox” used to be “White,” Giolito is having one of the worst starts of his career since coming off the IL to start the season. In four starts, he’s been worth -0.7 WAR, courtesy of the highest walk and home run rates of his career. His last start, against Atlanta, he allowed six runs for the second time in four tries, including on three home runs, two in the first inning. He’s not going deep either, having required 87 pitches to get through four frames his last time out.
Game 2 – Friday, 7:10 pm, MASN
- Charlie Morton (0-7, 7.68 ERA, 40 SO) v. Brayan Bello (2-1, 4.02 ERA, 20 SO)
I really want Charlie Morton, he of the distinguished 18-year career, to figure it out for Baltimore this season. Since being bumped to the bullpen, he’s been better, posting a 4.43 ERA instead of a 10.89 one in his first five tries. His last time out of the ‘pen came in relief of Kyle Gibson, who allowed six runs in less than an inning in what was perhaps his last time pitching as an Oriole. Sigh. Best to turn the page on that memory quickly. But Morton was really good: his fastball had lots of life, and he whiffed six in 4.1 innings. The Red Sox are a very tall order, but this is kind of an important test for Morton, and this rotation.
Brayan Bello took a loss against Atlanta in his most recent start on Sunday, allowing seven runs on 10 hits and five walks with three strikeouts over 4.1 innings. His first five starts of the season were good, with only seven runs allowed, but he’s had three consecutive starts where he’s failed to complete five innings. He’s allowing traffic on the basepaths, having difficulty keeping the ball in the strike zone, and failing to draw many whiffs. He’ll carry a 4.02 ERA, 1.69 WHIP and 20:19 K:BB across 31.1 innings into this matchup.
Game 3 – Saturday, 4:10 pm, MASN
- Zach Eflin (3-2, 5.08 ERA, 17 SO) v. Hunter Dobbins (2-1, 3.62 ERA, 25 SO)
Zach Eflin is having the opposite season as Charlie Morton, in that he started off brilliantly, got sidetracked due to injury (Morton, for all that he’s 41, remains a paragon of pitcher health in a tough era), and turned in a dreadful outing his last time out. Eflin posted a clean 3.00 ERA in March/April, but it’s less clear whether he’s fully healed. In two starts since he returned from injury, he allowed two runs to the Halos and an awful eight runs on ten hits against the Nationals.
Rookie Hunter Dobbins has been middle-of-the-pack for Boston, sniffing neither the brilliance of former White Sox Garrett Crochet nor the badness, currently, of Giolito. Across six starts, he’s pitched to a respectable 3.62 ERA, 1.30 WHIP and 25:5 K/BB rate. He earned a no-decision last Monday against the Mets, allowing one run on five hits and one walk over 4.2 innings, while striking out two. The Lubbock, Texas, native has been very good at limiting walks and getting hitters to chase his slider, curveball and sweeper.
Game 4 — Sunday, 1:35 pm, MASN
- Dean Kremer (3-5, 5.50 ERA, 40 SO) v. Walker Buehler (4-1, 4.00 ERA, 33 SO)
Dean Kremer got off to a hot start in May with back-to-back outings of seven strong innings, but he has given up four runs apiece in his two starts since then. Kremer has pitched much worse on the road (6.93 ERA in seven starts) than at home (2.50 ERA in three starts) this season, and in his career he has struggled at Fenway Park, going 0-3 with a 7.71 ERA in five starts.
Walker Buehler is in his first year with the Red Sox after a prolific but injury-riddled career with the Dodgers. He has already spent a stint on the IL this year with shoulder inflammation. He made his return May 20 against the Mets but pitched only 2.1 innings before getting ejected for arguing balls and strikes. Before the injury he had been rounding into form, with a 2.59 ERA in his four previous starts. The Orioles faced Buehler with the Dodgers last year and tagged him for four runs in 4.2 innings but lost the game.
**