The O’s will help the Red Sox open up Fenway Park for the 2024 season.
The Red Sox entered the season as the consensus picks to finish at the bottom of the AL East. While that may still come true, the team asserted itself well on a season-opening road trip that took them down the entire west coast (Seattle, Oakland, Anaheim). They will finally open Fenway Park this week, welcoming the Orioles as their esteemed guests.
Pitching has been the BoSox hallmark early on. Their 1.49 team ERA is the best in the bigs, as is their 2.92 FIP and 3.08 xFIP. Both the rotation and the bullpen have seen success through the season’s first 10 games, but the relievers have been a bit more susceptible with their 3.18 FIP and 3.40 xFIP. They could be at risk of some negative regression if their .234 BABIP comes back to earth a bit. Kenley Jansen, Greg Weissert, Josh Winckowski, and Justin Slaten are yet to allow an earned run out of the bullpen, and save chances have been shared between Jansen, Slaten, and Chase Anderson.
Boston’s offense has been middle-of-the-road in most categories. They have scored the 11th most runs in MLB, rank 14th in batting average (.248), 12th in on-base percentage (.325), and 13th in slugging percentage (.402). But they are a threat on the bases, stealing 10 bags so far. New outfielder Tyler O’Neill is leading the team in most categories with his .357/.514/.893 batting line to go with five home runs and 12 runs scored. Jarren Duran (142 wRC+) and Reese McGuire (186 wRC+) have also been early-season studs while Rafael Devers (132 wRC+, two home runs) has had an expectedly solid start to the year.
The Red Sox have had to deal with some injuries in this season’s infancy. Lucas Giolito was lost back in spring training with a UCL injury. He will miss the entire campaign. More recently, starting shortstop Trevor Story suffered a dislocated left shoulder while diving for a ball in between short and third base during their series against the Angels. That injury is still being evaluated, but it is possible that his season is over as well.
An interesting strategy that the Red Sox front office has just taken up is signing some of their young, non-elite foreign-born players to long-term deals. Brayan Bello signed a six-year, $55 million deal in March. He’s expected to be a solid rotation contributor for years to come. And just this week they agreed with outfielder Ceddane Rafaela on an eight-year, $50 million contract. Rafaela’s bat is nothing to write home about, but the guy can run and cover some grass in center field.
Game 1: Tuesday, April 9th, 2:10 p.m., MASN/MLB Network
RHP Corbin Burnes (1-0, 2.31 ERA) vs. RHP Bryan Bello (1-0, 5.40 ERA)
This Burnes guy can really pitch. His second start (5.2 IP, two runs, nine hits, three strikeouts, no walks) in orange and black was not quite as dominant as his first (six IP, one run, one hit, 11 strikeouts, no walks), but it was still good! Anytime he pitches feels like a game the Orioles should win. This will be his first time pitching at Fenway and only his second game against the Red Sox,
Bello has faced the Orioles once in each of the last two seasons. He allowed three runs over 5.1 innings in 2022 and then allowed three runs over five full frames in 2023. So far this season, the default ace of the staff has made two so-so starts, most recently serving up four runs over five innings to the lowly Athletics. The righty pitches to contact, striking out only 7.20 per nine so far and walking a minuscule 0.90 per nine.
Game 2: Wednesday, April 10th, 7:10 p.m., MASN/MLB Network
LHP Cole Irvin (0-1, 7.20 ERA) vs. RHP Nick Pivetta (1-1, 0.82 ERA)
Irvin will be the final member of the O’s rotation to get his second start of the season. The lefty was not great in his debut against the Royals (five innings, four runs, seven hits, two walks, three strikeouts). And that significantly increased velocity he saw early in the spring was nowhere to be found. He was up slightly from his averages in 2023, but it didn’t look like some reinvented pitcher.
The only run that Pivetta has allowed to this point came on a solo homer against J.P. Crawford. But overall he has been nails, striking out a total of 13 across 11 innings while walking only one and allowing eight strikeouts. He faced the O’s just once last year, and it came in late September. On that day he struck out 10 across seven scoreless innings.
Game 3: Thursday, April 11th, 7:10 p.m., MASN/MLB Network
RHP Grayson Rodriguez (2-0, 2.19 ERA) vs. RHP Kutter Crawford (0-0, 0.84 ERA)
The ace-in-waiting has possibly been the Orioles’ best starter through two turns. Even in freezing conditions in Pittsburgh over the weekend he was throwing in the mid-to-upper 90s. The only problem for Rodriguez so far has been home runs. Every single run he has allowed this season (three) has come on solo homers.
Much like Pivetta, Crawford has been exceptional in his first two starts. The righty is yet to allow a run over 10.2 total innings while striking out 12. He only made it through 4.2 innings against the Angels in his last start because he did walk three. So if the Orioles can make him work then they could get into the bullpen early. Crawford held the O’s scoreless over six innings when he faced them back in September as well.