The O’s are back on the road, heading out to Cincinnati for a three-game set against Elly De La Cruz and the up-and-coming Reds.
The NL Central has a chance to turn into one of the league’s most compelling division races. While the Reds currently trail the Brewers and Cubs by a few games in the standings, the run differentials of the three teams aren’t all that different, and there is plenty of reason to believe the upstarts in the Queen City could make a run at Central supremacy.
It all starts with Elly De La Cruz. His page on Baseball Savant is a whirlwind. The guy is fast and strong, sporting elite foot speed and one of the game’s best throwing arms. That power is evident at the plate as well, where he is capable of obscene exit velocities. De La Cruz leads MLB with 18 steals and just squeaks inside the top 10 in the league with eight home runs. His 31% strikeout rate is high, but he makes up for it with production.
The other key cog in Cincinnati’s offense is Spencer Steer. The outfielder is a well-rounded player that makes an impact both in the box and on the bases. Steer owns a 129 wRC+, has swiped eight bases, and sports a .252/.364/.450 batting line.
Tyler Stephenson and Jake Fraley are two other members of the lineup that can make an impact. Stephenson owns a 112 wRC+ with three homers, but he has missed four straight games after being hit on the hand. He is expected back for this weekend. Fraley has a 118 wRC+ with a .293/.359/.414 line and five stolen bases, but Reds manager David Bell tends to sit him against southpaws.
The rest of the Cincinnati lineup has been rather disappointing to this point. As a team they have an 88 wRC+, tied with the Oakland Athletics for 24th in MLB. That has been dragged down by poor starts from Jonathan India (87 wRC+, .295 slugging), Jeimer Candelario (83 wRC+, 34% strikeout rate), and Christian Encarnacion-Strand (44 wRC+, .196 batting average).
Injuries have also been a problem. TJ Friedl is yet to debut this season due to a wrist fracture that he is rehabbing at the team’s spring training facility. Matt McLain was a brilliant rookie in 2023, but he has also been on the shelf following left shoulder surgery that will keep him out until late in the season at best.
Cincinnati’s bullpen is a middle-of-the-road crew that has decent depth but lacks a lockdown arm. Fernando Cruz is the best of the bunch with his 16.97 strikeouts per nine innings and 1.86 xFIP. The 34-year-old righty is a late-bloomer that features a nasty split-finger fastball to get whiffs, but he also walks 4.63 per nine. Alexis Diaz and his slider get the save opportunities in this group. The 2023 All-Star is in fine form to begin the season (3.75 ERA, 117 ERA+).
Game 1: Friday, May 3rd, 6:10 p.m., MASN
LHP Cole Irvin (2-1, 3.49 ERA) vs. RHP Hunter Greene (1-2, 3.63 ERA)
This version of Irvin is exactly what the Orioles hoped they were getting from Oakland heading into last season. Over his last three starts, Irvin has thrown 18.1 innings, allowed two runs, walked two, and struck out 11. The stuff is never going to be overwhelming, but when Irvin stays out of the middle of the plate and manages to avoid walks he becomes a valuable innings eater.
Greene has a great fastball, and he uses it a lot. Who can blame him? The offering averages 98 mph and opponents are hitting only .175 against it this season. In his most recent start (against the Rangers) he threw 72% fastballs, the most in any single outing in his career. It worked as he allowed just one hit and one walk over seven innings.
Game 2: Saturday, May 4th, 6:40 p.m., MASN 2
LHP John Means (season debut) vs. LHP Andrew Abbott (1-3, 3.27 ERA)
The Orioles will be handing Means his first start of the season with some cautious optimism. The 31-year-old wrapped up his rehab with seven shutout innings, but it was a rocky prior to that. He tossed 95 pitches in that final appearance for Triple-A Norfolk, and he will be working on an extra day of rest, so there should be no limitations here apart from performance.
Abbott features four pitches with half of his offerings being four-seamers and the other half being equally represented by changeups, sweepers, and curveballs. The changeup is his money pitch. It’s get 32.5% whiffs and opponents are hitting only .095 against it. Recently, Abbott has been susceptible to home runs, allowing four over his last 15.2 innings.
Game 3: Sunday, May 5th, 4:10 p.m., MASN 2
RHP Dean Kremer (2-2, 4.19 ERA) vs. LHP Nick Lodolo (3-0, 1.88 ERA)
Five out of six starts this season have been quite good for Kremer. He is coming off of a seven-inning, two-run performance against the Yankees. The only recurring issue for him is home runs. He has served up eight long balls in 34.1 innings. Nearly one in every five fly balls he allows end up leaving the park. That is not good!
Lodolo missed most of 2023 with a leg injury, but he has been healthy to begin 2024 and has impressed to this point. His last start against the Padres was a seven-inning gem in which he allowed just one run and struck out 11. The lefty has found a lot of success with his curveball, which is getting 50% whiffs and has an opponent batting average of .135.