The Rockies come to town and offer the Orioles a trio of winnable games this weekend.
It’s nice to have an opponent coming to town that the Orioles should, at least on paper, be better than. Perhaps it will give this group one more happy memory before a few of them are sold at next week’s deadline.
The Rockies have had a nightmarish season, one of the worst in recent memory. But they have improved in the last few months. At the end of May, they were on pace to win 25 games for the entire season. Since June 1 they are 17-27 and have won four of their last six. That has improved their overall winning percentage to .255, on pace to win 41 times, equal to what the White Sox did a season ago.
Looking at season-long statistics for the Rockies yields predictable results. They are at or near the bottom of baseball in most categories. Since June 1 they have seen better performance from their lineup. In that time they have a 93 wRC+ and a .259/.311/.430 batting line.
Ryan McMahon and Hunter Goodman are the most recognizable names in their lineup. McMahon is a player coveted by several playoff contenders, but is the latest Rockies player to be inexplicably held onto too long by the franchise despite signals that they need to do a proper rebuild. Goodman was the team’s all-star rep this year. He’s a good player, boasting a 119 wRC+ and .360 wOBA, both are third-best among qualified MLB catchers.
Another name to watch for Colorado is Tyler Freeman. The outfielder dealt with injuries early in the season, but has been one of the team’s best bats since June 1. In that time he has a 143 wRC+ and a .345/.429/.468 batting line.
Something you cannot really paint a pretty picture of is the Rockies bullpen. It’s a mess, and July has been particularly brutal for them. Their 6.36 ERA this month is MLB’s worst mark. Jimmy Herget (2.38 ERA, 10.32 K/9) and Tyler Kinley (2.79 ERA, 12.10 K/9) have been the bright spots this month.
Germán Márquez will miss this series with biceps tendinitis, and Kris Bryant has been out since April with his latest injury issues. The 33-year-old Bryant is yet to play more than 80 games in a season for the Rockies since signing a seven-year, $182 million contract prior to the 2022 season. Infielder Thairo Estrada is expected back this weekend. He sprained his thumb earlier in the month.
Game 1: Friday, July 25th, 7:05 p.m., MASN/MASN+
RHP Dean Kremer (8-7, 4.06 ERA) vs. LHP Kyle Freeland (2-10, 5.19 ERA)
Since May 1, Kremer has a 2.98 ERA and 3.20 FIP over 84.2 innings. He has allowed one or fewer runs in five of his last six outings, and has tossed 14 total innings over his last two starts. It has been a truly impressive run for the 29-year-old, the best he has looked since 2022.
Freeland has been on the Colorado pitching staff since 2017. Does anyone remember his 2018 campaign? That season saw him finish with a 2.85 ERA over 202.1 innings and 7.8 bWAR. The Denver native has not been near that level ever since, but remains capable of some moments of brilliance. He’s got a 3.57 ERA in the month of July.
Game 2: Saturday, July 26th, 7:05 p.m., MASN/MASN+
LHP Trevor Rogers (3-1, 1.74 ERA) vs. RHP Antonio Senzatela (4-13, 6.41 ERA)
Is the Rogers turnaround here to stay? This the best that the southpaw has pitched his entire career. He tossed seven more strong innings against the Rays in his last start and looks more and more like an important part of the Orioles 2026 rotation rather than a trade piece.
Senzatela has dealt with ongoing injury issues the previous two seasons. He has been healthy this year, but the results have been rough. He leads the league in losses and hits allowed. It’s not what you want out of pitcher. But he has stayed off the IL, which feels like an important individual step for him.
Game 3: Sunday, July 27th, 1:35 p.m., MASN/MASN+
RHP Tomoyuki Sugano (7-5, 4.54 ERA) vs. LHP Austin Gomber (0-4, 6.03 ERA)
Sugano’s recent struggles continued in his last outing. Over just 3.2 innings against the Guardians he allowed four runs (three earned) on six walks, four walks, and four strikeouts. His season ERA has increased by nearly a run-and-a-half since the beginning of June. With each passing start Sugano looks more like an innings-eater for the O’s than a helpful addition to a playoff roster.
Another left-handed pitcher will always be a scary proposition for these Orioles, but Gomber isn’t the toughest arm they could face. He’s a soft tosser that throws a lot of strikes but does not get many whiffs. That’s a dangerous combination for him, and it would be a frustrating pitcher to see beat your team.