Neither the Orioles nor the Royals can claim their bullpens as real strengths.
A lot of us in these parts still hear “Royals” and “postseason” and get nightmarish visions of the 2014 American League Championship Series, in which Kansas City knocked the AL East Champion Orioles out in four games. Well, that was a decade ago, and these are not the same Royals who won two AL pennants and a World Series with All-Stars Greg Holland, Wade Davis, and Kelvin Herrera locking down the late innings. Then again, for their part, I’m sure the 2024 Orioles would love to have Brad Brach, Darren O’Day and Zack Britton in the back end of their bullpen, too.
With an unexpected Detroit loss on Sunday to the 121-loss White Sox, the Royals overtook the Tigers for the AL’s fifth seed, making them the Orioles’ opponent in the Wild Card series. Technically, this is a better matchup for Baltimore than Detroit, against whom they dropped four of six games.
The Orioles won the season series against the Royals, 4-2, although in run differential it was mighty close: 29-27 Orioles. Because this is a preview of the bullpens, I’m pleased to tell you that two of those wins came courtesy of walkoff hits: on April 1, Jordan Westburg homered off Royals reliever Nick Anderson, and on April 3, James McCann singled home two runs against closer Will Smith.
OK, I guess it’s been a long time since even April 2024. Nick Anderson is actually now in the Orioles’ farm system, having been released by Kansas City in July, and Will Smith last pitched a month ago, being sidelined with back spasms. Those two, along with Chris Stratton and John Schreiber, were actually new spring additions to the KC roster meant to stabilize the bullpen, but these moves didn’t work out as hoped.
For most of the year, in fact, the Royals bullpen would have been an easy punching bag. From the beginning of the season through the month of August, the unit had an MLB-sixth-worst ERA of 4.42 and struck out fewer hitters than all but Colorado.
But while September was a tough month for Orioles relievers, the opposite has happened to the Royals. To quote our sister site, Royals Review:
[W]hile the offense has gone in the tank in September, leading to two separate seven-game losing streaks, the bullpen has quietly become a strength in the last month of the season. This month, Royals relievers have a 3.25 ERA (11th-best in baseball) a 2.75 FIP (third-best), and most amazingly they have become a bullpen that can miss bats with the fourth-best strikeout rate in the game.
Gone is Anderson, and down with injury are Smith, Stratton and the struggling James McArthur (with a 4.92 ERA). We won’t see former Oriole Hunter Harvey, either, who’s sidelined with back tightness and also had a 6.35 ERA for KC.
The remaining throwers are pitching much better. Lucas Erceg, acquired from the Athletics at the trade deadline, had several bad months in Oakland this season, but he’s got a 3.18 ERA and a 0.79 WHIP this month. Onetime starter Kris Bubic has rounded into form, with a 2.67 ERA and 39 strikeouts in 30.1 innings since being reactivated after Tommy John last year. The 6’6” Daniel Lynch IV, a converted lefty starter, spent most of the year in Triple-A but he hasn’t allowed a run in September over 17.1 innings.
Rounding out this outfit are Carlos Hernández, who has a 100-mph fastball and consistency problems, Angel Zerpa, a groundball-inducing lefty who had a 9.82 ERA in August, and Sam Long, one of the few recently struggling Royals relievers, with an elevated 5.56 ERA this month.
A few of these names are likely to be replaced with a trio of right-handed starters the Royals won’t need in the three-game Wild Card series: Alec Marsh (9-9, 4.53 ERA, 1.26 WHIP in 129 IP), RHP Michael Lorenzen (7-6, 3.31 ERA, 1.24 WHIP in 130.1 IP), and perhaps Brady Singer (9-13, 3.71 ERA, 1.27 WHIP in 179.2 IP).
The Royals bullpen could crash to earth after their hot September, but it still sounds like the Orioles want to score early and often off KC starters if they can—particularly as their own relief corps has been shaky down the stretch, with the third-worst September ERA in baseball, at 5.51.
Like Kansas City, the Orioles will be trying to add by subtracting some of the worst September offenders: Craig Kimbrel (22.09 ERA, released on Sept. 18), Bryan Baker (7.71 ERA, optioned Sept. 28), Burch Smith (8.44 ERA, placed on the IL Sept. 20), and Cole Irvin (6.75 ERA, DFA’d Sept. 15).
They can’t snap and make all their problems disappear, though. Lefty Cionel Pérez has a bloated 9.00 ERA in his last 11 outings. Two guys the Orioles have tried to use to fill the Félix Bautista-sized hole at closer, Yennier Cano and trade deadline pickup Seranthony Domínguez, have an identical 6.43 mark in September. Still, for lack of other options, it’s unlikely these three won’t make the postseason roster.
Some Orioles relievers who are pitching well of late are Jacob Webb (a 3.00 ERA in his last six outings), Gregory Soto (a 2.08 ERA and 11.42 K/9 in September, and looking much less wild than he did in August), and lefty Keegan Akin (a 2.38 ERA and 11.91 K/9 in his last eleven outings). Danny Coulombe, reactivated on Sept. 20 after bone chip surgery, couldn’t be joining the team at a better time: he hasn’t allowed a run in four appearances in September.
Overall, these two units are close, and neither is particularly distinguished. Kansas City has a slight advantage in reliever ERA (4.13 to 4.24) and a nearly-identical 3.90 FIP (the Orioles’ is 3.89). The Orioles relief corps has allowed more home runs (1.03 per game to Kansas City’s 0.89), but Baltimore relievers have been much more prolific in strikeouts (9.15 K/9 to a third-worst 8.04 for KC).
Overall, neither of these two contenders should hope this series is defined by the strength of its bullpen. Hopefully the Orioles build up large leads early and give these guys an easy assignment.