The Orioles could clinch a playoff spot this weekend. They could also fall out of the top wild card position.
The final month of this season has frequently not been a fun one for the Orioles and their fans, with the team hitting a major pothole in the form of a struggling offense. The O’s scoring 24 runs in a 12-game span should haunt everyone in Birdland as things head towards the end. Despite this, the Orioles enter this weekend’s series against the Tigers with the possibility of clinching a spot in the postseason and potentially even clinching the home field position for the wild card round.
As things stand right now, the Tigers, who the Orioles are playing this weekend, are the team whose losses shrink the magic number. The Tigers and Twins are tied for the third wild card spot in the standings, with the Twins holding the head-to-head tiebreaker. That magic number of Orioles wins plus Tigers losses is 5. If the Orioles sweep, they will guarantee a postseason spot and nearing a clinch of hosting the wild card round. Win two of three and that magic number will be down to just 1.
That’s the mathematical possibility. We all know that the Orioles, as they have been playing this month, are not capable of a three-game sweep against anyone, no matter how good or bad the other team is or has been playing. They haven’t won a series against a currently-above-.500 team in more than two months. It’s the offense, or the lack of it, that is the problem. The O’s are averaging 3.56 runs scored/game for the month, with a team OPS of .658. It’s not good.
On the subject of mathematical possibilities, the Orioles could be eliminated from division contention this weekend as well, if they are the team that gets swept instead and the Yankees pull off a sweep of their own against the Athletics.
The lack of offense was on display just last weekend when these teams matched up in Detroit. The Orioles scored six runs across three games and were on the losing end of 1-0 and 4-2 games. The 1-0 loss was particularly ugly, with the O’s nearly ending up as the first team to have a combined perfect game pitched against them, and only avoiding a combined no-hitter with Gunnar Henderson’s two-out ninth inning triple. No wonder this team has won just four of its last 13 games.
In the previous series, the Tigers used the “opener and friends” strategy to good effect. As of this writing, there is no announced starting pitcher for either the Friday or Sunday games of the series, so it seems like Detroit is going to go back to that same well.
Why shouldn’t they? This kept the reeling Orioles offense off balance last time around and they can hope that might happen again. Though the O’s now have some reinforcements on the way as Ramón Urías and Jordan Westburg have started rehab assignments, that’s not likely to impact the next three games.
In this series, the same as the last one, the Orioles have the good fortune of avoiding the probable AL Cy Young winner, Tarik Skubal. The O’s did not take advantage of this last time. We’ll see if they can do differently in the final home regular season series here this weekend.
Game 1: Friday, 7:05 Eastern
Note: This game will have a video broadcast only on Apple TV+ streaming. It will not air on MASN. The radio broadcast across the Orioles Radio Network is unaffected.
- BAL starter: Corbin Burnes – 30 GS, 3.06 ERA, 3.63 FIP, 1.119 WHIP
- DET starter: None announced
Burnes faced off against the Tigers in the last series, looking a lot like the dominant Burnes that we all hoped the Orioles acquired back when they dealt for him in February. That outing saw Burnes pitch seven shutout innings, with seven strikeouts recorded and only two hits and one walk allowed. It was a great outing that continued a September bounce-back from what was a dismal August for Burnes. If he can carve through them again, the weekend will get off to a nice start.
In all likelihood, this is the penultimate regular season start for Burnes. August’s bad results knocked him out of serious contention for a second career Cy Young award. His season performance overall points to a guy who’s still a pretty good pitcher but also one who’s been on a continual decline path ever since winning that Cy three years ago. The 2024 season has seen another strikeout rate decline for Burnes, with the hits allowed rate increasing.
Is Burnes the Game 1 starter for the Orioles likely wild card appearance? Would you move Zach Eflin ahead of him? Either pitcher could be lined up to make the start on either game; Eflin and Burnes will both be on lined up for next week’s series against the Yankees for their final starts of the regular season and that means they’ll each be rested for the postseason series as well.
Game 2: Saturday, 4:05 Eastern
- BAL starter: Cade Povich – 14 GS, 5.74 ERA, 5.13 FIP, 1.536 WHIP
- DET starter: Reese Olson – 20 GS, 3.50 ERA, 3.23 FIP, 1.206 WHIP
Through his first nine starts this season, Olson had a 2.16 ERA and a record of 0-5. It’s not like this is entirely because the Tigers were a bad team in April or May. They went 17-13 for March/April, although they’d fallen below .500 by the end of May. Olson, 25, has pitched reasonably well this season, though he did miss a couple of months with a shoulder strain.
This start will only be Olson’s second one since coming back from the IL. He lasted just 2.2 innings into the previous one. In his sophomore MLB season, Olson has a career ERA that we wish Grayson Rodriguez had instead.
Povich also pitched in the last series against the Tigers. It was a decent five innings, with two runs allowed on two hits and two walks. Povich also struck out eight batters. That was good. He took the loss anyway. If he is able to pitch at least that well in this series, the Orioles will at least have a chance at winning the game. That depends on the offense.
Game 3: Sunday, 1:35 Eastern
- BAL starter: Albert Suárez – 30 G / 22 GS, 3.60 ERA, 3.92 FIP, 1.321 WHIP
- DET starter: None announced
Suárez has been a fun story this season, and he might just be the best choice to start game 3 of a wild card series, if they’re in the first round and that series goes the distance. That being the case, it would be nice to see a bit of a rebound for Suárez, who has two September stinkers on his stat sheet as the season works towards its end. He was torched for six runs in 4.1 innings by the White Sox, and four runs in 3.1 innings by the Giants.
The Orioles were blown out in both of these games, pairing a characteristic lack of offense with this poor pitching. It’s already been kind of a freebie for the Orioles to have gotten as many good starts from Suárez as they have. 34-year-old guys who last pitched in MLB seven years ago do not show up and post ERAs in the mid-3s very often. Their chances of making and advancing in the postseason will be helped if Suárez can turn in at least three more good ones, starting with a better outing against the Tigers here in this series finale.
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There are nine games left to be played in the Orioles regular season. This series accounts for one-third of what’s remaining. Play well and they could clinch. Play poorly and they could find themselves on the cusp of losing their current seed with danger still remaining to miss out entirely. The O’s cannot control what happens with the Yankees, the Twins, or the Royals this weekend, but they can control what happens to themselves and to the Tigers.