After two straight series losses, Baltimore will look to solidify their playoff position as they visit the surging Tigers.
After a pair of disappointing series against Tampa and Boston, the Orioles get a reprieve from AL East play, as they’ll spend their weekend taking on the Tigers in Comerica Park. The Orioles and Tigers could play a big part in where each team finishes after Game 162. Baltimore and Detroit play each other six times in the next nine games, with both jockeying for playoff position. The Orioles currently hold the top Wild Card spot, three games ahead of the Royals in second. The Tigers have had an excellent second half, a run that’s propelled them to just 3.5 games back from the last postseason berth.
If the O’s can repeat their results against Detroit from the 2023 season, it’s going to be a good weekend in the Motor City. Last year, Baltimore went 6-1 against the Tigers, including a 3-1 series win in Comerica Park. Unfortunately for the Orioles, most of the stars from that series are currently on the IL. Grayson Rodriguez and Kyle Bradish both delivered good starts in Baltimore wins, while Jorge Mateo went 5-15 with 2 HRs and 4 RBIs.
Historically, Comerica has been a tough place for the Orioles to collect wins. Since the park opened in 2000, Baltimore is 39-40 and 10-13 in series. The good news for the O’s, as they try to reverse those fortunes, is they won’t have to face presumptive AL Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal. The dominant lefty threw six innings last night against Colorado and isn’t scheduled to pitch again until next week vs. Kansas City. After supposedly chasing a trade for the Tigers’ ace at the deadline, the Orioles will at least avoid the double disappointment of not making a deal AND getting beat by the player.
The Orioles have played well against the other AL Central teams this year, going 16-7 against the Guardians, Royals, Twins and White Sox. Gunnar Henderson has been the driving force behind much of that success, posting a .371 average with 9 HRs and 20 RBIs. We also may be ripe for a James McCann revenge series, as the catcher tends to destroy the pitching of his former teams. In his career against Detroit, McCann has .322 average, .825 OPS with a pair of homers.
Game 1: Friday, September 13th, 6:40pm ET, MASN2
Probable pitchers: RHP Zach Eflin (10-8, 3.65 ERA., 125 Ks) vs. TBD
Eflin will look to avoid any more bad luck as he tries to bounce back from his worst start in black and orange. The veteran righty took the loss last time out against his former team the Rays, allowing three runs over 5.2 innings while giving up two home runs. The standard has been that high for Eflin as an Oriole, where a near-quality start qualifies as his worst outing with the O’s, but Baltimore needs him to be excellent given the extreme up-and-down nature of their offense.
Despite being in his ninth major league season, Friday will be the first time Eflin toes the rubber in Comerica. His only career appearance against the Tigers came last season in the Trop, where he held Detroit to one run and three hits over five innings.
Eflin has been much more curveball-heavy lately, and expect that approach to continue against the Tigers. Leadoff man Matt Vierling and former No.1 pick Spencer Torkleson handle the curve well, but the rest of the Detroit regulars hit around .225 or lower against the big benders. Across August and September, opponents are 5-23 against Eflin’s curve with only one extra-base hit.
In their last two turns through the rotation, the Tigers have used an opener the day after Skubal, with rookie Brant Hurter following the opener. Hurter, the former seventh-round pick out of Georgia Tech, is a lanky lefty that on a heavy sinker-sweeper mix. The matchup with the rookie southpaw could be good news for Adley Rutschman, who’s hitting .321 against sinkers this season and .338 vs. lefties.
Game 2: Saturday, September 14th, 6:10pm ET, MASN2
Probable pitchers: RHP Corbin Burnes (13-8, 3.18 ERA, 157 Ks) vs. TBD
After struggling throughout the month of August, Burnes seems to be back to his normal self through two starts in September. While the All-Star allowed 13 hits in 11 innings vs. the White Sox and Rays, he limited the runs and has a 2.45 ERA across those two starts. The righty seems to have simplified his approach, throwing more cutters than ever and using his curveball as his go-to out pitch.
Burnes will hope Saturday can be a repeat of his only career appearance at Comerica. During the shortened 2020 season, Burnes dominated the Tigers, throwing seven shutout innings, only allowing one hit and striking out 11. The matchup with the current Tigers lineup will pit two contrasting trends against one another. Burnes’ cutter has been much better against lefties this season, with lefties hitting 30 points lower against his primary pitch. The O’s starter will hope that holds up against a Tigers lineup that has lefties like Riley Greene, Kerry Carpenter and Zach McKinstry who all crush cutters.
Detroit will probably go with an opener on Saturday again but expect former first-round pick Ty Madden to get extended innings in Game 2. The 24-year-old Texan has been strong across his first three big league outings, posting a 2.57 ERA with 10 Ks across 14 innings. Despite his slider grading out as his best pitch as a prospect, Madden has been fastball-heavy in his first several outings. The righty’s splitter has been his go-to out pitch, which makes him an intriguing matchup for Tony Taters. Santander is slugging .818 against splitters this season with three homers.
Game 3: Sunday, September 15th, 12:10pm ET, MASN2
Probable pitchers: LHP Cade Povich (2-8, 5.91 ERA, 52 Ks) vs. RHP Keider Montero (5-6, 4.88 ERA, 65 Ks)
Sunday will see a battle between two rookies as Cade Povich makes his Detroit debut. Pitching away from Camden Yards has been a perilous proposition for Povich. The 24-year-old currently has an 11.37 ERA on the road compared to a 3.60 in Baltimore. The good news for Slim is that Detroit has struggled against lefties all season. The Tigers rank 22nd with a .234 average against lefties, with only 27 HRs all season off southpaws.
Veteran infielder Andy Ibáñez has been Detroit’s best hitter against lefties this season, leading the Tigers with a .322 average, four HRs and 24 RBIs against LHP. Povich should look to lean on his curveball against Ibáñez and the rest of Detroit’s lefty-mashers. None of Detroit’s top hitters against southpaws hit the curveball well, but it will come down to if Povich can execute his breaking ball. Over his last two starts, opponents haven’t registered a hit on the rookie’s curveball—but right-handers are still hitting .370 against his curve in 2024.
The Tigers will counter with rookie right-hander Keider Montero. The 23-year-old Venezuelan relies heavily on his upper 90s fastball and compliments it sharp-breaking slider. The rookie is coming off the best start of his career against Colorado, tossing a complete-game shutout while allowing three hits and striking out five. Montero has been much better in Comerica this season, with his ERA almost a full run lower and his BAA 50 points less at home.