The Twins are 15-20, fourth in the Central, and not hitting too great.
It can’t be super easy to be a Minnesota sports fan. Your teams are always hovering around good, but rarely great. And even when they do have a great season and make it to the playoffs—the Vikings, the Wild—getting bounced early seems like almost a natural law.
Last season, the Twins were a potential contender picked to make a lot of noise in the AL Central, but a second-half collapse left them four games out of a playoff spot. That very much included their last series of the year, in which they got swept by the Orioles in three games.
This season, the Twins are fourth in the AL Central (15-20) and they expected to be doing better. In fact, team president Derek Falvey has called their start “incredibly disappointing.” (We know the feeling.) The Twins are seven games behind front runner Detroit (22-13) and ahead of only Chicago, who—news flash—still sucks. The Twins are pitching well but they can’t hit (they are 21st in offense and 7th in pitching).
The roster looks much like last year’s. Ty France came over from Seattle to play first base. He’s hitting OK for contact but no power (.254/.326./.381). Carlos Correa, Eduoard Julien and Byron Buxton are back, to mixed results: the 31-year-old Buxton is hitting for power and one of Minnesota’s top players in WAR but also leading the league in strikeouts. Second baseman Julien was just optioned to the minors for his struggles at the plate, and at 30, Carlos Correa is off to another disappointing season, with a -0.1 WAR and a .560 OPS. Bright spots include catcher Ryan Jeffers (.796 OPS) and outfielder Matt Wallner (.847 OPS).
Twins pitchers, however, have been pretty good, with a collective 3.60 ERA that’s sixth in the AL. All of their starters except one have a positive ERA+, indicating above-average performance. Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Pablo López and David Festa are all having great starts on the mound. Out of the ‘pen, closer Jhoan Durán has been excellent, with a 1.17 ERA and 17 strikeouts in 15 innings. Former Oriole Danny Coulombe has also been excellent for Minnesota in relief, having not allowed an earned run in 12.1 innings, as if just to make us feel worse about the choices we make.
The Orioles are lucky enough to be facing three right handers this time around. In a scheduling quirk, Baltimore will face Minnesota twice in the next two weeks, once one the road now and again at home starting May 13. That’ll be the last time the two teams meet in the regular season.
Game 1: Tuesday, 7:40 p.m., MASN
LHP Cade Povich (1-2, 5.16 ERA) vs. RHP Pablo López (2-2, 2.25 ERA)
This is the same matchup that kicked off the Orioles’ last series of 2024. Back then, Povich had a tough 2-9 record and 5.59 ERA and Lopez was the Twins’ best starter.
This year, López hasn’t been the Twins’ best starter due to the fact that the rotation has gotten better around him. He’s pitching well, with five starts in which he’s allowed two runs or fewer in all of them. Last year López saw a concerning decline in strikeouts but he’s whiffed six hitters in each of his last three starts.
As with last year, Cade Povich is still figuring it out, but showing enough to be interesting. Across six starts this year, he has one real stinker to his name, allowing seven runs in 3.1 innings to the Reds. But then he came out and held Washington to one run in 6.2 innings. So we’ll see which Povich we get as the young lefty continues to work on consistency. One thing he’s doing better this year is limiting walks: if we leave out his one bad outing, he’s allowed seven in 22 innings.
Game 2, Wednesday, 7:40 p.m., MASN
TBD vs. RHP Simeon Woods Richardson (2-2, 4.03 ERA)
The 24-year-old Simeon Woods Richardson is a onetime Mets draft pick who debuted in 2022. He is also a man who does fun things with his free time like cook, fish, draw and put his name on cookie companies, since he likes to eat them so much. In six starts this year, he’s had an up-and-down time of it, allowing four runs to Kansas City and three against Atlanta. Hitters are averaging .274 against the right hander, but he is striking out just over a batter per inning.
The Orioles have not yet announced Wednesday’s starter, which is unusual, and is probably due to Dean Kremer taking a 103-mph rocket off the thigh during his last stellar outing. MASN’s Roch Kubatko speculates that manager Brandon Hyde wants to give Kremer an extra day of rest. The trouble is it’s not clear who will pitch in his stead. After allowing eight runs to Kansas City on Sunday, the bullpen might not be a great place to turn for a spot start. Chayce McDermott could only get the call-up if he’s replacing an injured player. Neither Zach Eflin or Trevor Rogers would seem to be ready to return from rehab just yet. A disappointing but reasonable option would be a Keegan Akin opener followed by Charlie Morton, who we hope will find “it” again at some point.
Game 3, Thursday, 1:10 p.m., MASN
RHP Dean Kremer (3-4, 5.73 ERA) vs. RHP Joe Ryan (2-2, 2.93 ERA)
Joe Ryan is having an excellent start to the season. In seven starts, he’s allowed one run or fewer in five of them. He shut out both LAA and KC over seven innings in two stellar April starts. (You mean starters are allowed to do that?) His one clunker came in a six-run dud against the Braves.
That means Dean Kremer will need to be in top form to prevail in this starter matchup. His season has been the inverse of Ryan’s—one great start and lots of clunkers. In seven starts, Kremer has allowed five runs or more in four of them. Last week, however, he, too, shut out KC over seven innings, allowing just three hits and one walk. This was enough to lower his ERA by over a full run, but we’ll need to see a lot more from the righty to believe in him and this rotation.