The White Sox are very, very bad, and the Orioles really need to go on a winning streak.
There are no guarantees in baseball. Bad teams can (and do) beat good teams. So while these White Sox are absurdly, historically, undeniably awful, they are also capable of rolling into Camden Yards and winning a game this week. Let’s not allow that to happen.
It is worth sticking on the White Sox’s remarkable struggles for just a moment. Readers of this blog will remember the rather recent stretch of Orioles baseball from 2018-2021 that included three seasons of 100+ losses. The 2018 campaign was particularly brutal as the team went 47-115, sold off everyone, and started the organization on a massive rebuild. That felt pretty terrible, right? These White Sox are on pace to win only 36 games, 11 fewer than those dreadful 2018 O’s.
No team since 1900 has had a full-season winning percentage below .235 (1916 Philadelphia Athletics). The 2024 White Sox currently sit at .225, and there are no signs of that turning around. They are 7-45 since the start of July, including a 21-game losing streaked that tied the 1988 Orioles for the worst run in modern MLB. That performance cost Pedro Grifol the manager’s job. Former player Grady Sizemore was promoted from within the coaching staff to take over on an interim basis. Things have been no better under him. The ChiSox come to Baltimore this week in the midst of a 10-game losing streak.
Offense is the big problem for the White Sox. They have scored 100 runs fewer than the second-worst offense (Marlins) in baseball. Gavin Sheets (93 OPS+) or Andrew Vaughn (90 OPS+) are probably their best hitters. Neither one has an OPS above .680. Luis Robert Jr. is their most valuable position player at just 0.6 bWAR, but he has had a tough time at the plate (.219/.275/.395). Most of his value is tied up in his base running and outfield range.
On paper, the Orioles are a superior team, even considering their .500-ish play since mid-June. A sweep in this series could catapult them back into first place in the AL East as the Yankees travel to Texas for three games with the defending World Series champs. It’s a golden opportunity that needs to be taken advantage of.
Game 1: Monday, September 2nd, 3:05 p.m., MASN/MLB Network
RHP Corbin Burnes (12-7, 3.23 ERA) vs. RHP Chris Flexen (2-13, 5.29 ERA)
Nothing was working for Burnes in August. He made five starts, tossed 25.2 innings, and gave up a total of 28 runs (21 of which were earned). His 7.36 ERA in the month rose his season ERA from 2.47 to 3.23 and likely wiped away his hopes of a Cy Young, although he may still get some down-ballot consideration. There is no version of this Orioles team that can win the World Series without Burnes firing on all cylinders. That will require a bounceback in September. Hopefully that begins in this game.
No pitcher has more losses on the season than Flexen. That is more a reflection of the White Sox being horrible than Flexen actually being the worst pitcher in baseball. His 4.89 FIP and 4.75 xFIP paints the picture of a competent, although subpar big league hurler. Over his last two starts he has allowed five runs over 12.1 innings.
Game 2: Tuesday, September 3rd, 6:35 p.m., MASN2
LHP Cade Povich (1-7. 6.58 ERA) vs. RHP Nick Nastrini (0-6, 7.04 ERA)
Povich has flashed some impressive abilities this season, but he is clearly not ready for a full-time role in the rotation. Injuries have necessitated him to pitch quite a bit anyway. If ever there was an opportunity to prove he belongs, this is the game. This White Sox lineup is far less formidable than the Dodgers one that lit Povich up for five runs on 10 hits over 3.1 innings in his last outing.
The rookie Nastrini is learning on the job as well for Chicago. He just got called back up at the end of August, and diced up the Rangers lineup (6 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 3 SO) in his first start. The White Sox may as well see what their 18th-ranked prospect can do for the remainder of this sunk season.
Game 3: Wednesday, September 4th, 6:35 p.m., MASN2
RHP Albert Suárez (7-4, 3.14 ERA) vs. RHP Jonathan Cannon (2-9, 4.70 ERA)
Right now, in this moment, Suárez is the Orioles’ best pitcher. He re-entered the rotation at the start of August when Grayson Rodriguez hit the IL. In six appearances within the month, he had a 1.97 ERA. Can he sustain it? Who knows. But he has been a savior for an Orioles team that has been starved for pitching most of the season due to recurring injuries.
Cannon was having himself a nice rookie season up until his last four starts. Prior to that run, he had a 3.91 ERA on the year and was coming off of back-to-back starts in which he allowed one run and went 6+ innings in eachtttt. Since then, he has a 7.78 ERA over four starts. In that time he has tossed 19.2 innings, allowed 26 hits, walked 12, and served up four homers.