It’s last place vs first place. Can the Orioles win another series from the Yankees?
The Orioles finish their road trip this weekend with a three-game series against the first-place New York Yankees. This will be the second time the Orioles see the Yankees this season; back in April, the Orioles took two out of three but were outscored 22-12. The two wins were of the one-run variety and the loss was a 15-3 beatdown.
The Yankees’ 43 wins are the least of any division leader (tied with the Astros) and they hold just a slim two-game lead over the Rays. That’s the smallest lead in the American League. They are coming off of two bad series where they got swept by the Red Sox and lost three out of four to the Angels. I don’t necessarily think that means the Orioles are more likely to beat them this weekend, but I do love when the Yankees lose.
This year, the Yankees are averaging 5.1 runs per game, which is best in the American League. In the month of June, however, that number is down to 3.9. A number of their players who got off to hot starts, such as Jazz Chisholm, Paul Goldschmidt, and Trent Grisham, have cooled off lately.
Do you want to guess who hasn’t cooled off? Yes, it’s Aaron Judge. It seems impossible to fathom, but Judge is having a better year at the plate this year than he did in 2024. He currently leads the league in bWAR, runs, hits, RBI, batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, and intentional walks (of course). He is one off the lead for home runs behind Cal Raleigh.
I would like to request that the Orioles not pitch to Judge this weekend. Tonight is his bobblehead night, by the way. His bobblehead is dressed as Superman.
The Yankees’ starting rotation has been one of the best in baseball this season, led by free agent signing Max Fried. Carlos Rodón and Clarke Schmidt are doing well to give them a solid top three. The Orioles will miss Rodón this series.
Game 1: Friday, June 20th, 7:05 pm – MASN, MLBN (Out of Market)
Starters: LHP Max Fried (15 GS, 95 IP, 1.89 ERA / 2.89 FIP) vs RHP Tomoyuki Sugano (14 GS, 80 IP, 3.38 ERA / 4.70 FIP)
The only thing keeping this guy from being the best lefty in the AL is Tarik Skubal. The Yankees signed Max Fried to an eight-year, $218 million contract in the off-season, and so far he is earning every penny. He’s averaging over six innings per start with a WHIP under one. On May 30th, Fried allowed six runs in five innings to the Dodgers. In each of his other 14 starts, he has allowed two or fewer runs.
There is also the fact that he is a lefty. As we all know, the Orioles are unbelievably bad against lefties this year. Fried doesn’t have a big split between lefties and righties over his career; he’s good against everyone. This year, lefties have actually done better.
Tomoyuki Sugano has been the most solid starter for the Orioles this season, but he was unable to complete five innings in each of his last two starts. His strikeout numbers remain low, which makes his margin for error pretty small. Sugano’s season high in strikeouts came against the Yankees in April, when he fanned eight in five shutout innings.
Game 2: Saturday, June 21st, 1:05 pm. – MASN
Starters: RHP Clarke Schmidt (11 GS, 62.2 IP, 3.16 ERA / 3.54 FIP) vs RHP Zach Eflin (10 GS, 58 IP, 4.81 ERA / 5.01 FIP)
Clarke Schmidt is coming off of two very good starts against the Royals and Angels. Neither are powerhouses, but I won’t scoff at 13.2 shutout innings with just six hits allowed. He’s pitched into the sixth inning in eight of his 11 starts.
Eflin’s most recent start, against the Rays, was terrible. Eflin allowed seven runs in five innings. They knocked him around for 12 hits. Eflin had some troubles when he came off the IL, but he looked like he had straightened himself out before that clunker. Here’s hoping it was just a blip.
Game 3: Sunday, June 22nd, 11:35 am – Roku
Starters: RHP Will Warren (15 GS, 69 IP, 4.83 ERA / 2.89 FIP) vs Dean Kremer (15 G / 14 GS, 85.1 IP, 4.80 ERA / 4.23 FIP)
A note about this game being broadcast on Roku. This game is available for free even if you don’t have a Roku. You can stream it on Roku’s website or download the app for your device.
Will Warren has a higher ERA than the other Yankees starters, but he’s had some success this year. He also strikes out 11.7 batters per nine innings, which is pretty impressive. He made his debut last year but is still in rookie status in 2025. He is coming off an 11-strikeout game against the Angels, where he allowed three runs in six innings. It was just his second start of the year where he completed at least six innings.
Which Dean will show up for this game? In nine starts since May 1st, Kremer has pitched to a 3.52 ERA, much better than his overall number. But even in that span, he allowed at least four runs four times. That’s not good! Dean is a true grab bag.