The Orioles have a chance to take control of the division with a big series in the Bronx.
This is as big as a mid-June series gets. The Orioles and Yankees are the top two teams in not only the American League East, but the junior circuit at large. And if you dig into the numbers enough, you can pretty easily make an argument for these being the finest offenses and pitching staffs in the entire sport. There’s still plenty of season to go from here, but what happens at Yankee Stadium this week will, at the very least, have a big impact on vibes in the immediate future.
You will note that this is not the first time that these teams will face off this season. The Orioles took three out of four from the Yankees during a series that ran from April 29-May 2 at Camden Yards. Since then, the two teams have both been on fire. And importantly, for the Yankees anyway, Aaron Judge has emerged from his early-season funk to become the frontrunner for MVP in the AL.
New York boasts a powerful, but somewhat top-heavy, lineup, led by Judge. His numbers are cartoonish, featuring a .299/.425/.686 line with a league-best 26 home runs and 210 OPS+. Juan Soto is right behind him with a .315/.433/.592 line that includes 18 home runs and a 189 OPS+.
There are several other big contributors on the New York offense, but the drop-off is steep. After Soto’s 1.025 OPS, the next highest is Giancarlo Stanton and his .776 OPS. Stanton is also third on the team with 17 home runs. Anthony Volpe is their well-rounded shortstop that has a .728 OPS, 15 stolen bases, and stellar range at shortstop. He’s a tier (or two) below Gunnar Henderson and Bobby Witt Jr., but a good player all the same. Outfielder Alex Verdugo (108 OPS+) and catcher Jose Trevino (116 OPS+) give the lineup some depth.
New York will be without Anthony Rizzo for a while as he suffered a fractured arm in the series finale against the Red Sox on Sunday. He had been struggling in June (.373 OPS), but brought a good veteran presence to the infield. DJ LeMahieu will probably take over his innings at first base in the meantime. Other familiar names that will not play in this series are pitcher Clarke Schmidt (lat strain), pitcher Nick Burdi (hip), and infielder Jon Berti (calf).
One area of New York’s roster that could use an upgrade is its bullpen. Their 4.19 xFIP is in the bottom third of MLB. That is a reflection of their sub-par strikeout rates (8.53 K/9) and walk rates (3.87 BB/9). Their closer, Clay Holmes, is the closest thing they have to a lockdown reliever, but he has struggled a bit since the end of April and is posting the lowest strikeout rate of his career. Michael Tonkin’s 0.81 ERA is lovely, but his 3.62 xFIP is less so. Even if the O’s are trailing late, there should be opportunities to come back.
Game 1: Tuesday, June 18th, 7:05 p.m., MASN, TBS
RHP Albert Suárez (3-0, 1.61 ERA) vs. LHP Nestor Cortes (3-5, 3.59 ERA)
Suárez makes his fifth straight appearance as a starter. Over his last four games he has a 1.40 ERA/2.74 FIP with 16 strikeouts and eight walks over 19.1 innings. Opponents are hitting just .214 in that time and he has not allowed any home runs. In fact, Suárez has given up just one home run all season long. This powerful Yankees lineup will be his stiffest competition yet.
This will be Cortes’ second time facing the Orioles this season. Back on April 30 he allowed four runs on eight hits, two walks, and five strikeouts over six innings. The southpaw has not been particularly good so far in June with a 4.86 ERA over three starts and a .894 OPS against, but he is coming off of a seven-inning, two-run outing against the Royals last week.
Game 2: Wednesday, June 19th, 4:05 p.m., MASN, MLB Network
LHP Cade Povich (0-1, 4.76 ERA) vs. RHP Gerrit Cole (season debut)
What a spot for Povich to make his third career start. He was brilliant against the Braves last time out, keeping them off the board while striking out six over six innings. Suddenly, the Orioles will need to count on the rookie a lot more with so many veteran arms on the IL. At the same time, expectations should be tempered, and the Orioles need to put him in a position to succeed. Facing the top of the Yankees order three times might be out of the question here, but it will all depend on how he is looking.
Cole’s return is huge for the Yankees, who have actually gotten steady production from their rotation in his absence. Reporting indicates that Aaron Boone won’t push his ace beyond 80-85 pitches in his first big league start of the season. He maxed out at 68 pitches during his rehab, so that makes sense. That could also be a break for the Orioles, who should be able to get to the bullpen relatively early if things go well.
Game 3: Thursday, June 20th, 4:05 p.m., MASN, MLB Network
LHP Cole Irvin (6-3, 3.03 ERA) vs. RHP Luis Gil (9-1, 2.03 ERA)
Irvin has come back to earth a little bit in the month of June. Over three starts (17.2 innings) he has allowed nine runs (seven earned) on 25 hits, two walks, and 15 strikeouts. His contact-oriented approach does not feel like an ideal matchup against these Yankees, but he has made many of us look foolish with his output to this point in the season. Hopefully he can continue his effective, finesse approach this time out as well.
Gil may be the favorite for AL Cy Young right now. He has been terrific so far, posting a 198 ERA+ and striking out 96 over 80 total innings. Walks continue to be an issue though, no one has issued more than his 39 free passes, but he has limited all other damage to such a degree that it doesn’t really matter. He tossed 6.1 shutout innings against the Orioles back on May 1, New York’s only win in the series.