The series isn’t what we imagined it would be a few months ago
This series between the Orioles and Yankees has been circled on the calendar for a long time as a possible showdown for the division. But while the division isn’t officially decided, it will be soon.
The Orioles are six games back of the Yankees with six games to play, which means that as soon as the Yankees win one more game, it’s over. The only way for the season to end with the Orioles on top of the AL East is if they win every remaining game while the Yankees lose every remaining game.
The Orioles will lose the division in the next few days. But they can secure a spot in the playoffs today if they win and the Minnesota Twins or Kansas City Royals lose. Unfortunately, the Twins are playing the Marlins, whose next loss will be their 100th, and the Royals are playing the Nationals.
For much of the season, both the Orioles and Yankees muddled along, neither team seemingly interested in taking control of the division. But while the Orioles have continued to tread water, the Yankees finally started putting things together. The Orioles were in first place as recently as September 6th. Since then, the Orioles have gone 4-10 while the Yankees have gone 11-4. That’ll flip the standings real quick. (That 4-10 is the same record that the 120-loss White Sox have over the same period)
The Yankees continue to have an offense powered by two stars, Aaron Judge and Juan Soto. Judge had a 16-game homerless streak through early September, which for a normal baseball player is like 700 games. Even with that he leads the league in nearly every offensive category. He does not lead in batting average, which is still .323. There are six games left in the season and he incredibly has an OPS+ of 221. He also leads the league in grounding into double plays! Take that, Aaron.
Game 1: Tuesday, September 24th, 7:05 pm – MASN, YES, TBS (out of market)
Starters: RHP Dean Kremer (7-10, 4.19 ERA, 120 K) vs RHP Clarke Schmidt (5-4, 2.37 ERA, 80 K)
Clark Schmidt spent the bulk of this season on the injured list after suffering a strained right lat on May 26th. He has been back since the start of the month and will make his fourth start of September tonight. He’s been effective since his return with an ERA of 1.76, but has not yet been going deep into games.
But he has ramped up his pitch count over those three starts and can probably pitch as deep into the game as the Orioles batters let him.
Dean Kremer has just been chugging along doing Dean things. His starts are mostly good with some clunkers thrown in. His last start was one of those clunkers against the Giants. This will be his third start against the Yankees this year. The first two had varying success. The first, in April was a seven-inning two-run start, though he walked four. In the second, in July, Kremer gave up two runs in 4.2 innings.
Game 2: Wednesday, September 25th, 7:05 pm – MASN, YES
Starters: RHP Zach Eflin (10-9, 3.53 ERA, 133 K) vs LHP Nestor Cortes (9-10, 3.77 ERA, 162 K)
Over his past eight starts, Cortes has given up one of fewer runs in six. That’s pretty good. In the other two, he gave up 11 runs in 8.2 innings. We should try to hope for one of those kinds of starts, but I wouldn’t put any money on it.
Cortes faced the Orioles twice in the first half. He gave up four runs in six innings in April and threw six shutout innings in June. Over this season, Cortes has held lefty batters to a .204/.248/.282 hitting line, so that’s bad news for the Orioles. He’s also been much better at home.
I don’t think it’s an exaggeration to say that the Orioles would be lost without Zach Eflin. Since arriving with the Orioles, Eflin has pitched to a 2.31 ERA over eight starts. He has faced the Yankees three times this season when he was part of the Rays organization but has not pitched against them as an Oriole. He held them to a 2.50 ERA in those three starts with 17 strikeouts in 18 innings. That’s not bad.
Game 3: Thursday, September 26th, 7:05 pm – MASN, YES, MLB Network (out of market)
Starters: RHP Corbin Burnes (15-8, 2.95 ERA, 172 K) vs RHP Gerrit Cole (7-5. 3.67 ERA, 94 K)
This is your marquee pitching matchup, friends. It could also be the final regular season start for Corbin Burnes as a member of the Orioles. I have really enjoyed having him. After a bit of trouble in August, Burnes has been back strong over his last five starts, including an excellent start over the Tigers last Friday.
Gerrit Cole’s ERA is his worst since 2017, but considering it’s still just 3.67 that’s not really that exciting. Cole missed much of the season with elbow inflammation but still has faced the Orioles twice already. In June, Cole gave up two runs in four innings to the Orioles. He was better in July with one run in six innings. He has had just one bad start since the start of August, a six-run clunker against the Red Sox on Sept 14th.