Come make your picks on the number of MLB players traded, catchers used, games played by Samuel Basallo, and plenty more!
Last year, I wrote that the Orioles were limping into the All-Star break before Alex Verdugo handed them a gift in the first-half finale. Kyle Stowers pulled a reverse Verdugo last week by ushering bad vibes into Birdland.
Fresh off a division crown in 2023, the Orioles held a legitimate chance to repeat as AL East champions. Gunnar Henderson and Anthony Santander were cruising toward a combined 80 home runs, and Grayson Rodriguez was set to eclipse 15 wins in a season.
The Birds were gearing up to buy at the trade deadline, and Jackson Holliday had yet to return from Triple-A Norfolk. You can check out all of last year’s over/unders and reflect on your picks from last season here.
We were all happy to dodge questions on Rougned Odor and Jahmai Jones, but we didn’t know quite how good we had it. The Orioles provided a solid reminder of what it’s like to watch a losing baseball team in 2025, and things will get worse before they get better with the trade deadline rapidly approaching. Either way, I’m back with my sixth iteration of Orioles over/unders for the second half.
Over/under 6.5 MLB players traded away by the deadline
Speaking of the trade deadline, let’s get this one out of the way. The Orioles traded Bryan Baker away earlier this month, so Baker does count as a player for the sake of this exercise.
The roster features several talented players set to become free agents. Charlie Morton, Zach Eflin, and Tomoyuki Sugano could all help a competitive team grind through the second half. Morton and Eflin could round out a rotation or work out of the bullpen in the postseason, but Sugano may not garner interest after a rough end to the first half. Eflin didn’t exactly shine in his last few starts before hitting the IL with a back issue either.
Ryan O’Hearn will be one of the better hitters on the market, and Cedric Mullins features several valuable skills. Bullpen arms like Seranthony Domínguez, Gregory Soto, and Andrew Kittredge will all be on the block, and there could easily be a surprise or two. Ramón Urías could go for the right price, as could Ramón Laureano, and the O’s could attempt to sell low on Tyler O’Neill.
Mike Elias doesn’t feel like the type to get bullied at the deadline. The Orioles still need to field a roster in the second half, and Elias could hold fringe trade candidates if he fails to receive an attractive offer.
Over/Under 7.5 combined starts by Kyle Bradish, Grayson Rodriguez and Tyler Wells
Kyle Bradish is set to begin a rehab assignment on Thursday, but the Orioles recently shut down Grayson Rodriguez. The O’s will not rush any of the three back, but Bradish should return to Baltimore at some point in August. Rodriguez remains a mystery.
Your answer here likely depends on whether you think Rodriguez will pitch at all for the Orioles in 2025. Tyler Wells is set to return at some point, but the Orioles could use the former Rule 5 pick out of the bullpen.
Over/Under 2.5 players with 20+ home runs
Cedric Mullins led the Orioles at the end of the first half with 13 home runs. With Mullins set to be dealt, Jackson Holliday (13), Ramón Laureano (12), Gunnar Henderson (11), and Jordan Westburg (10) represent the most likely candidates to eclipse 20 homers on the season.
Westburg should get there if he manages to stay healthy, and Gunnar Henderson appears to have found his groove after a slow start. Colton Cowser (8) has displayed a knack for extra-base hits since returning from the IL as well.
Over/Under 7.5 catchers used by the Orioles this season
This question feels absolutely absurd, but the O’s have already used six catchers this year. Adley Rutschman, Gary Sánchez, Maverick Handley, Chadwick Tromp, Jacob Stallings and Alex Jackson have all suited up for Baltimore, and top prospect Samuel Basallo is all but certain to debut in the second half.
David Bañuelos pinch hit for Jordan Westburg last Sunday, but he didn’t technically put on the catcher’s gear. Several of these guys should heal up before the end of the season, but I’m not taking anything for granted.
Over/Under 12.5 combined home runs by Heston Kjerstad and Coby Mayo
We’ll stick with the home run theme, but this one really boils down to whether these guys crack the everyday lineup. Heston Kjerstad hit four home runs over 54 games before returning to Triple-A, and Coby Mayo hit his only first-half homer against a position player.
Both of these players developed tremendous power reputations while slugging their way through the minor leagues. Both should receive additional opportunities after the trade deadline, and the O’s really need at least one of these two to demonstrate MLB talent down the stretch.
Players develop at their own pace. Jackson Holliday nearly started the All Star game this year after spending last year’s break with Norfolk. These guys should be able to combine for eight long balls in the second half.
Rapid Fire:
Over/Under 74.5 wins
The O’s played at a much better pace over the last two months, but they are set to lose several talented players.
Over/Under 0.5 contract extensions handed out
This one feels highly unlikely, but it could represent a solid opportunity to gain some goodwill among the fan base.
Over/Under 13.5 K/9 for Félix Bautista
Bautista posted a 12.8 K/9 over the first half. He struck out 11 batters per nine innings as he eased back into things in April, but he posted a ridiculous 15.5 K/9 over 11 games in June.
Over/Under .800 OPS for Gunnar Henderson
Henderson posted a .803 OPS over the first half.
Over/Under 19.5 games played for Samuel Basallo
Basallo’s bat looks MLB ready, but the O’s have yet to pull the trigger on his MLB debut. Basallo can DH when he’s not behind the plate, but Baltimore may look to ease the top prospect into MLB action.