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Peter Schmuck: Are the Orioles a strong playoff contender? Not yet.

January 3, 2026 by Baltimore Baseball

Now that Orioles president of baseball operations Mike Elias has fleshed out the starting rotation, added significant pop to the lineup and might still have an ace up his sleeve, it’s okay to start getting excited about the start of spring training six weeks from now.

It’s just too early to dream.

The O’s certainly have enough talent to climb out of the AL East cellar, but a big chunk of the reason they got there was injuries and underperformance by players who will be key to getting back into playoff contention.

Elias and control owner David Rubenstein have kept their promise to loosen the club’s purse strings, signing premier slugger Pete Alonso to a $155 million contract and spending $28 million on likely closer Ryan Helsley. The O’s also committed $10 million to rehabbing starter Zach Eflin, sacrificed quite a bit of minor league capital to acquire starter Shane Baz, and gave up starting pitcher Grayson Rodriguez for power-hitting outfielder Taylor Ward.

So, it’s already been a solid offseason and the front office still hopes to add a front-line starter and more relief help.

If all that happens, the chances of recapturing the magic of the 2023 season will look pretty good, but a strong playoff run also depends on the Orioles avoiding the pitfalls that turned 2025 into a huge disappointment for fans who felt the organization was positioned to be a perennial pennant contender.

The changes Elias made in the coaching staff might turn out to be just as important as the additional star power. New hitting coach Dustin Lind and assistant Brady North have to figure out why 2024 Rookie of the Year runner-up Colton Cowser looked so helpless at the plate after returning from the severe hand injury he suffered at the start of last season. If he can channel his impressive rookie season and play a solid center field, that would go a long way toward stiffening the newly rebalanced batting order.

Though Gunnar Henderson had, by all accounts, a very solid ‘25 season, he also didn’t deliver the punch that made him an American League MVP candidate in 2024. Some across-the-board dropoff in his production was probably predictable after his terrific numbers that season, but his performance clearly was impacted by the left-hand dominant Oriole lineup’s overall vulnerability to good left-handed pitching.

That issue has been addressed with the arrival of Alonso and Ward, which should make other teams less likely to overload lefties against the Orioles this year. It should also help Cowser and young Jackson Holliday play up to their potential.

The added offensive and pitching help also should insulate the Orioles against a repeat of the rash of serious injuries that handicapped the club from the middle of the 2024 season through the late summer of 2025, but Elias and new manager Craig Albernaz still have some work to do to assemble a solid bullpen after trading away Seranthony Domínguez, Gregory Soto, Andrew Kittredge and Bryan Baker at midseason.

Kittredge was re-acquired by the Orioles and presumably will join Yennier Cano and Helsley as the main late-inning arms. Still to be determined is where potential starter/swingmen Tyler Wells and Albert Suárez fit into the staff on Opening Day.

And, of course, even with the improved depth, the Orioles need to get full seasons from Jordan Westburg, Wells and Kyle Bradish while O’s fans pray that Tyler O’Neill can stay off the injured list long enough to play in 100 games.

From your lips to the baseball gods’ ears.

Filed Under: Orioles

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