The Orioles will come out of the All-Star break with many of the same troublesome issues that greeted them at the start of the season.
First and foremost, do they have enough rotation depth to go deep in the playoffs and can they get more before the upcoming trade deadline?
Is future Hall of Fame closer Craig Kimbrel still a consistent enough replacement for injured Félix Bautista, and is there really anyone better out there who could be had at a reasonable cost?
Perhaps Oriole fans can take heart in the fact that the club overcame all of the doubts about the pitching staff that surfaced during the spring to end the non-mathematical first half right where they ended last season – at the top of the American League East standings.
And in spite of the five-game losing streak that ended on Sunday because of some very friendly fielding by the second-place Yankees, their 58-38 record at the break is just one game shy of last year’s mark after 96 games.
Still, if the landscape looks similar to last year’s 101-win AL East championship season, the horizon looks very different. The Yankees are back from a rare down year and the Boston Red Sox, who were picked to finish a distant fifth in the division, have risen up and taken advantage of the concurrent recent struggles of the Orioles and Yankees to creep to within 4 ½ games of first place.
Don’t think anyone doubts that the Orioles are still on course for a second straight postseason run, but they have to hope that the four-day break breathes new life into a starting rotation that appears to be down to just two dependable arms and executive VP/general manager Mike Elias can find some new blood in the next couple of weeks. That won’t be easy unless he’s willing to give up a big chunk of his major league ready minor league talent.
Some might say that’s what it’s there for, but Elias expects to see several of those highly ranked young players on his own big-league roster either this year or next, so don’t expect him to sweep out the Norfolk clubhouse for a couple of decent rental players.
There are some good starters who might be available without dealing one of the club’s top three prospects – Jackson Holliday, Coby Mayo or Samuel Basallo – but the O’s are going to find themselves in the same situation during the offseason if they settle for a guy who can become a free agent this winter.
If they want someone with more seasons under club control the price goes up and the possibilities may be limited by factors other than what Elias will have to give in return.
For instance, White Sox starter Garrett Crochet is a talented 25-year-old left-hander who will be under club control through the 2026 season, but he already has pitched almost twice as many innings (107 1/3) than he did in his only other significant season in the major leagues (54 1/3 in 2021).
There’s also a lot of chatter about Tigers lefty Tarik Skubal, who is having a terrific All-Star season (10-3, 2.41 ERA, 4.5 WAR). He also would have two more years under reserve, but he’s just 33 innings away from his career season high and has had two major arm surgeries over the course of his amateur and major league careers.
It’ll be interesting to see if Elias is willing to gamble a big chunk of his top young talent on anyone of questionable durability, but adding an All-Star starter to the club’s postseason roster could very well make the difference between a short postseason run and a World Series title.
Obviously, the O’s also need bullpen help after a first half in which Kimbrel struggled mightily to protect one-run leads in the ninth inning, but it seems unlikely they’ll land an elite closer. More likely, Elias will look for a power arm who can contribute anywhere in the late innings.