WEST SACRAMENTO, California—The news that Corbin Burnes needs Tommy John surgery may reinforce executive vice president/general manager Mike Elias’ strategy in bidding for free-agent starters.
It’s no cause for celebration that the Orioles escaped a costly contract by not securing an extension for Burnes, a pitcher who didn’t want to sign with the Orioles in any case.
In his six years with the Orioles, Elias has signed only outfielder Tyler O’Neill to a contract of more than one year. O’Neill has a three-year, $49.5 million contract, and he can opt out after this season. Since he’s played only 24 games with a .188 average, two home runs and 10 RBIs, it seems unlikely that O’Neill will find a better deal for 2026 and 2027 than he has with the Orioles.
The Orioles have plenty of potential free agents, and should they not get in the race in the next six weeks, there could be plenty of movement around next month’s trade deadline. Outfielders Cedric Mullins, Ramón Laureano, first baseman Ryan O’Hearn, starters Zach Eflin, and Tomoyuki Sugano, and relievers Seranthony Domínguez, Andrew Kittredge and Gregory Soto could be on the move.
Kittredge has a $9 million option for next season. Laureano has one for $6.5 million, so there may be an incentive to keep them.
The post-deadline starting rotation could feature Kyle Bradish and Tyler Wells, who are rehabbing after season-ending elbow injuries last June, and Albert Suárez, who’s been out since the first series of the season with a rotator cuff injury.
There also could be lots of playing time for Coby Mayo, outfielder Dylan Beavers and perhaps catcher Samuel Basallo.
Next year, Bradish, Wells and Grayson Rodriguez, whom the Orioles hope to see in the second half of the season, could all be in the starting rotation. So could Dean Kremer, Cade Povich and Trevor Rogers, who could be recalled soon from Triple-A Norfolk. Brandon Young, who’s rehabbing a shoulder injury at High-A Aberdeen, is a candidate, too.
The guess here is that the Orioles will be aggressive in the free-agent pitching market but won’t offer more than three or four years, which should be sufficient to entice a starter or two to pitch in Baltimore.
It’s likely there will be several new relievers next season, though left-hander Keegan Akin and right-handers Félix Bautista, Bryan Baker and Yennier Cano remain under club control for next year.
The Orioles’ catching looks set with Basallo and Adley Rutschman. So does the infield if Mayo plays well at first base in his extended audition now that Ryan Mountcastle is out for two or three months because of a right hamstring injury. Jackson Holliday, Gunnar Henderson and Jordan Westburg will be back, and the Orioles can keep Ramón Urías, who’s proved to be ultra-valuable and has another year until free agency.
O’Neill and Colton Cowser should be back in the outfield next season, and Beavers, who’s had a solid year at Norfolk, could play a key role next season. So could the Orioles’ No. 2 prospect, Enrique Bradfield Jr., who’s now at Chesapeake.
Dylan Carlson is also a candidate for next season as is Laureano, if he’s not traded at the deadline.
Elias is likely to bid for another outfielder or two.
The guess here is that the Orioles will spend aggressively, though not wildly, this fall and winter.
The most pressing offseason question is who will be managing this group. Despite the sharp and unexpected falloff this season, there is talent, and the team should be willing to spend, making it an attractive job.
Tony Mansolino will be given consideration since he’ll have 4 ½ months to prove himself, but even if Elias is inclined to make him the manager for 2026 and beyond, it’s still an opportunity to see who’s available.
When Elias was named to his position in November 2018, the Orioles’ managerial job was the only vacant one. This time, the Orioles’ job will be far more appealing than it was seven years ago.
Candidates could include former major league managers Mike Matheny, Skip Schumaker and Scott Servais, if Elias is inclined to choose a manager with big league experience, as I think he will.
After taking over on May 17th with just a few hours notice before his first game, Mansolino has shown some appealing qualities. He readily admits he doesn’t know it all, and has a great knowledge of analytics, a necessity for modern managers.
He’s positive without fawning over players and politely answers questions and explains his answers. He seems to enjoy the give-and-take.
While the Orioles may not get back in the playoff hunt, the final 98 games of the season will still be meaningful and revelatory.
Call for questions: Most weekdays, I’ll be answering at least one Orioles question. Please send yours to: Rich@BaltimoreBaseball.com