The Orioles’ magic number to clinch a postseason berth is two, according to Major League Baseball. They can clinch on Tuesday night if they beat the Yankees and Kansas City loses at Washington or Minnesota loses at Miami. Their magic number to clinch the top wild-card spot is three.
Despite losing five straight series for the first time since August 2021, the Orioles are still a near certainty to play beyond this Sunday. BaseballReference.com calculates their odds at 99.6 percent. FanGraphs and ESPN give the Orioles a 99.9 percent chance of making the postseason.
Let’s look at some postseason questions.
Could the Orioles still win the American League East?
The only way the Orioles win the AL East is if they win their last six games at New York and Minnesota and the Yankees lose their last six against the Orioles and Pittsburgh.
FanGraphs gives this scenario a .1 percent chance of occurring.
When will the wild-card series start?
The wild-card round is best-of-three, and the games will be played at the home of the team with the better record. The games are October 1st, 2nd and, if necessary, October 3rd.
There are four wild-card games, and we don’t know what time the Orioles would play.
Who will the Orioles play in the wild-card round?
Detroit and Kansas City are four games behind the Orioles. Minnesota is five games behind.
The Tigers have proven over the past two weekends that they’ll be a tough matchup for the Orioles, winning back-to-back series. Tarik Skubal, the likely Cy Young winner who leads the American League in wins, ERA and strikeouts, didn’t pitch against the Orioles in either series.
Corbin Burnes pitched brilliantly against the Tigers in the two games the Orioles won, allowing five hits in 14 scoreless innings.
Though Zach Eflin didn’t beat the Tigers, he pitched well, allowing one run on five hits in 6 2/3 innings on September 13th when the Orioles were no-hit for 8 2/3 innings.
Burnes and Eflin should be lined up to start the first two games of the wild-card round, and that will help.
Kansas City is the biggest unknown because the Orioles haven’t faced them in more than five months. In the event they face the Twins, that would be interesting because they’ll play them in the final three games of the season.
What will the roster look like for the postseason?
The Orioles have 28 players on the roster. They’ll have to subtract two since the postseason limit is 26. They can use a maximum of 13 pitchers, but it’s possible that in a three-game series, the Orioles could choose to use 14 position players and 12 pitchers, though the guess here is that they’d go with 13 pitchers.
The two remaining questions involve first baseman Ryan Mountcastle and starting pitcher Grayson Rodriguez.
Mountcastle played first base and was the designated hitter last weekend for Triple-A Norfolk, and there’s a possibility he’ll be activated for the series that begins Tuesday against the Yankees. He’d be an asset to the Orioles provided that his sprained left wrist has healed.
He had a rough time before his wrist injury. In the second half, Mouncastle has hit .250 with a .643 OPS, a home run and 18 RBIs.
Rodriguez, who remains on the injured list with right lat/teres strain, hasn’t pitched a live batting practice and didn’t go to Norfolk for a rehab assignment. Perhaps he’ll travel with the Orioles or go to Sarasota to face hitters, but it seems unlikely he’ll be on the active roster for the first round of the playoffs.
Should the Orioles advance to the Division Series, they can change their roster.
If the Orioles win the wild-card round, who would they play?
Assuming that the Orioles are the top wild-card team, they’d play the division champion with the best record in the Division Series, which is best-of-five. Currently, the Yankees have a better record than Cleveland, which has clinched the American League Central.
What do the Orioles need to do to make October memorable?
The Orioles’ starting pitching has been a strength in September. Their starters have a 3.11 ERA.
Their offense has been a weakness, scoring just 71 runs in 17 games, an average of 2.7 runs per game.
After starting the month with three straight wins, they’ve lost 11 of 16.
The return of Ramón Urías and Jordan Westburg should help the offense. If Mountcastle returns and plays well, that’s another boost. Since Mountcastle went on the injured list, Ryan O’Hearn has just one home run and six RBIs.
Relief pitcher Danny Coulombe’s two scoreless outings this past weekend should mean a stronger bullpen. On Sunday, Coulombe, Keegan Akin, Cionel Pérez and Yennier Cano combined for four hitless innings, which could have been a difference-maker had the offense produced.
With Craig Kimbrel’s departure and Coulombe’s return, manager Brandon Hyde has a back-end bullpen that includes Akin, Cano, Coulombe, Pérez and Seranthony Domínguez, with Matt Bowman and Gregory Soto in reserve.
Since Jacob Webb returned from his time on the injured list with right elbow inflammation on September 15th, he’s allowed two runs on three hits in three innings with three walks and no strikeouts.
Do the Orioles have a chance to play well into October?
After a 58-38 record in the first half, the Orioles have gone 28-32. History is full of examples of teams that got hot at the right time, including last year’s Texas Rangers, who shocked the Orioles with a three-game sweep in the Division Series.
The Tigers could be that team this year. They’re 27-11 since August 11th, a torrid pace for nearly a quarter of the season.
Last year, the Rangers finished with 90 wins and got hot in the postseason. The Orioles need some confidence, and if they play two strong series against the Yankees and Twins this week, perhaps that may set them up for an October surprise.
Note: The Orioles game at Minnesota on Saturday will start at 7:15 p.m. and be shown on FOX. It was originally scheduled as a 2:10 p.m. start.