It was a somewhat busy offseason in Boston, but none of the moves made by the new front office seem to have improved the 2024 version of the team. Could another last place finish be imminent?
Things have not been going great for the Red Sox recently. They have ended each of the last two seasons in the cellar of the AL East. Evidently, ownership had seen enough of the Chaim Bloom era, firing the club’s chief baseball officer back in September.
Former big league reliever Craig Breslow was brought in to replace Bloom the following month. That began an offseason of half measures that may have moved the Red Sox closer to their long-term goals, but it didn’t set them up for much success in 2024.
That led to some pointed comments from both third baseman Rafael Devers and closer Kenley Jansen. Devers said “You know what we need and they know what we need. It’s just some things I can’t say. I’m not allowed.” While Jansen described himself as “frustrated” following an underwhelming winter.
Expectations for Boston will be modest, at least on the national scale. While the lineup should still be able to pack a punch up and down the order, there are more questions than ever regarding the rotation. If that sounds interesting to you, you will be able to watch the drama unfold on their Netflix series later this year.
Additions & Subtractions
Naming Breslow the chief baseball officer is the move that will have long-term reverberations for the franchise. But he clearly was not given an edict to get the Red Sox back to the playoffs in 2024. The moves he made in his first offseason largely maintained the status quo.
Alex Verdugo was traded to the Yankees in early December. In exchange, the Red Sox landed a trio of pitchers: Greg Weisset, Richard Fitts, and Nicholas Judice. Weissert will likely plug into a middle relief role, Fitts could see some big league time later in the summer, while Judice is yet to play in a pro game after being drafted last July.
Tyler O’Neill arrives from the Cardinals to take on the role vacated by Verdugo’s departure. The 28-year-old is a good athlete that has a 34-homer season (2021) on his resumé. But he has also struggled with injuries throughout his career, limiting him to 72 games in 2023 and 96 games in 2022. He’s due to be a free agent at season’s end, which could mean the Red Sox view him as a trade chip if they fall out of the playoff race early.
Their final big move of the winter came in late December when Chris Sale was traded to the Braves for infielder Vaughn Grissom. This is a deal that at least makes some sense. Sale needed a change of scenery, but his value was limited given how often he has been hurt. Grissom is only 23 years old and under team control through 2029. His upside appears limited, but at least it gives the Red Sox some youth and roster flexibility.
Lucas Giolito joined the team in January, and he seemed like a low-risk bounceback candidate that could also serve as a trade chip. But he suffered a UCL injury in spring training and will now miss the entire 2024 season.
Starting Rotation (projected)
- Brayan Bello
- Nick Pivetta
- Kutter Crawford
- Tanner Houck
- Garrett Whitlock
Boston gave Bello a six-year extension earlier this month that also includes a club option for a seventh year. He has had a nice start to his big league career, including a 4.24 ERA over a team-best 157 innings last season. The profile is closer to that of a mid-rotation arm rather than an ace, but he will be the team’s Opening Day starter regardless.
Pivetta is a solidifying veteran presence in this rotation. His run in Boston has been solid. Over four seasons he has compiled a 4.34 ERA and been fairly durable, tossing at least 140 innings each of the last three seasons. He was in the conversation with Bello and a pre-injury Giolito for the Opening Day start.
The back half of the rotation is expected to contain the trio of Crawford, Houck, and Whitlock. Each of them have shown flashes, but the overall results have been underwhelming. You can see why Giolito was brought in to fortify things, but it’s curious that no moves have been made since he was ruled out for the year.
There has long been speculation that Boston remains in contact with Jordan Montgomery as a possible solution to their pitching woes. Michael Lorenzen could also make a lot of sense.
Bullpen
Jansen is no longer the elite back-end arm he once was. But he’s still quite good. He struck out 10.5 per nine innings in his first season with the Red Sox and saved 29 games. It earned him an all-star game appearance.
Behind Jansen, much of the bullpen is expected back from 2023. Josh Winckowski led the unit with 84.1 innings as a set-up option last year. Chris Martin was arguably the most effective of the bunch with his 1.05 ERA over 51.1 innings.
The middle innings will be more familiar names. As mentioned above, Weissert came over from the Yankees and figures to be in the mix here. Joely Rodriguez is a non-roster invitee in camp after struggling with the Red Sox last year, but projects to make the roster anyway. Brennan Bernardino will look to duplicate his solid 2023 (3.20 ERA over 50.2 innings).
Starting Lineup (projected)
- Jarren Duran, RF
- Rafael Devers, 3B
- Trevor Story, SS
- Tyler O’Neill, LF
- Masataka Yoshida, DH
- Triston Casas, 1B
- Ceddane Rafaela, CF
- Enmanuel Valdez, 2B
- Connor Wong, C
The Red Sox are capable of scoring some runs. They finished 11th in MLB in runs scored last year, sixth in batting average (.258), 13th in on-base percentage (.324), and ninth in slugging percentage (.424). They won’t be mistaken for the Big Red Machine, but it’s a passable offense.
Devers took a slight step back last season, but remained a stud in the middle of the lineup. He slashed .271/.351/.500 with 33 home runs and a 126 OPS+. They will need him at the absolute top of his game in the season ahead.
A healthy season from Story will be paramount as well. He’s yet to play more than 94 games in a year for Boston. And when he did play in 2023, it was bad (52 OPS+). If he’s washed, the Red Sox have a problem.
Yoshida provided surprisingly good production in his first MLB season, finishing sixth in Rookie of the Year voting. Casas was even better, finishing third in the voting after smacking 24 home runs and asserting himself as the Red Sox first baseman of both the present and the future.
Durran became a do-it-all threat despite less-than-ideal peripherals. The outfielder has game-changing speed that allowed him to steal 24 bases in 2023. That could be more of a weapon now than a season ago.
Boston’s lineup is, in general, inexperienced. It includes a lot of players that were in their first or second full MLB seasons in 2023. Despite that, their production was decent. It’s reasonable to think they could take a collective step forward. But even that probably won’t be enough to overcome a thin starting rotation.
Projections
PECOTA: 78.5-83.5
USA Today: 77-85
FanGraphs: 81-81
DraftKings Sportsbook: Over/Under 77.5 Wins, +1700 to win the AL East, +4500 to win the AL Pennant, +6500 to win the World Series
Unsurprisingly, the Red Sox are expected to finish last in the East by just about everyone. FanGraphs has them at least finishing .500, but that’s still a fifth place result in baseball’s best division.
It’s hard to argue against the projections here. The Red Sox did not go out and acquire anyone that makes them clearly better than the version that finished in the cellar a season ago. Any improvement that comes will be a result of internal talent developing more and putting up bigger numbers.
That sounds like a reasonable plan for long-term success, but it’s unlikely to help much in 2024. Especially not when the youthful Orioles are also ascending, the Yankees are adding a player like Juan Soto, and both the Blue Jays and Rays appear to be superior in overall talent.