The Red Sox acquired Garrett Crochet and Alex Bregman in an effort to reclaim the American League East.
This week, Camden Chat will be previewing the rest of the division and other expected AL contenders. Paul Folkemer covered the Yankees yesterday. Today, we dive into the Boston Red Sox.
The Red Sox last won the American League East in 2018. The Orioles finished 47-115 that season before undergoing a full-scale rebuild. Plenty has changed since that painful season of baseball. Baltimore now features a new ownership group, a forward-thinking front office, and some of the game’s brightest young stars.
Things never turned quite as ugly in Boston as they did in Baltimore, but the Red Sox finished last in the division three times during that span. Now, after a few top-tier acquisitions, the Red Sox appear positioned for a legitimate chance to compete for a division crown.
Additions and subtractions
- Notable additions: SP Garrett Crochet, INF Alex Bregman, RP Aroldis Chapman, SP Walker Buehler
- Notable departures: OF Tyler O’Neill, RP Kenley Jansen, SP Nick Pivetta, RP Chris Martin
Starting rotation
The Red Sox sent four prospects to Chicago in exchange for a lefty with top-of-the-rotation stuff. Garrett Crochet debuted in 2020 and made 54 appearances as a reliever in 2021. He missed all of 2022 after undergoing Tommy John surgery, but he managed to make 13 relief appearances in 2023.
Crochet broke out for a dreadful White Sox team last season. In his first year as a starter, the lefty posted a 3.58 ERA, 2.69 FIP, and 1.068 WHIP over 32 games. Chicago dangled Crochet at the trade deadline, but any potential deal was clouded by a lack of track record and potential contract demands stemming from his camp.
Boston dealt two Top 100 prospects and a pair of young players ranked in the farm system’s Top 15. They expect a healthy Crochet to anchor a rotation featuring Tanner Houck, Brayan Bello, and free-agent acquisition Walker Buehler. Kutter Crawford will begin the season on the injured list, as will Bello and Lucas Giolito.
The Orioles experienced plenty of adversity in their rotation last season. The Red Sox have the depth to tread water at the beginning of the season, but the task will become significantly easier if Crochet pitches to his potential. Another injury, or a regression under the bright lights at Fenway Park, could lead to early season struggles on the mound.
Bullpen
The Sox bullpen struggled last year as the team limped to an 81-81 record. Kenley Jansen made the All-Star team in 2023 and posted another respectable season in 2024, but the 37-year-old signed with the Angels for $10 million. Boston lost another talented veteran when RHP Chris Martin signed with his hometown Rangers.
The front office countered by signing 37-year-old Aroldis Chapman and 36-year-old Liam Hendriks. Chapman pitched to a fine 3.79 ERA with Pittsburgh last season, while Hendriks missed the entire season after Tommy John surgery.
Lineup
The real drama came when Boston acquired one of the better third baseman of the last decade. The Red Sox inked Alex Bregman to a three-year, $120 million deal to help boost the lineup and shore up the defense at third base. The only problem? Incumbent third baseman Rafael Devers quickly announced that he had no interest in moving from the position.
Despite defensive metrics that fell well below average, Devers refused to budge. Recent reports still indicate that Devers could request a trade at any time, and the three-time All Star is not expected to travel with the team for an exhibition series in Mexico. Trevor Story won’t make that trip either while nursing a back issue.
Jarren Duran broke out in a big way last season with a .285/.342/.492 slash line. He topped the AL with 48 doubles and 14 triples while finishing in the Top-10 in MVP voting. Duran should continue to spark the Sox atop the lineup, but the best-case scenario involves Bregman and Devers providing power from the heart of the order.
Projections
PECOTA: 80-82
FanGraphs: 85-77
DraftKings Sportsbook: Over/Under 86.5 wins, +350 to win AL East, +900 to win AL, +2000 to win World Series
FanGraphs projects Boston to finish the season with two more wins than Baltimore, but PECOTA pencils the Sox into last place in the AL East. The division appears more open to all parties after a pair of two-horse races in 2023 and 2024.
Like so many other teams, Boston will be significantly impacted by the health of its rotation. Crochet could lead a talented group to an impressive showing in the AL East. Meanwhile, Bregman marks a significant upgrade on both sides of the plate, but it remains to be seen whether Devers will go along for the ride.