The unrelenting Rays can never be counted out, but have they done enough to keep pace in baseball’s toughest division?
Count on it: it is never wise to count out the Rays. Despite their consistent lack of spending, they are basically always playing meaningful games in September. They’ve won 95-plus games in three of the last five seasons, have made the playoffs five years running and haven’t had a losing record since 2017.
Last season, the Tampa Bays started with a brilliant 27-6 record but wilted in the heat, slinking to an 8-16 July. That’s the month when the Orioles overtook them at the top of the AL East leaderboard, a place they kept for good. But the Rays didn’t exactly go quietly into the night. No, as late as Sept. 23, they remained 1.5 games back of the Orioles, and it was only a pivotal four-game split that preserved the Orioles’ hold on the East in place.
It’s cracking the deeper rounds of the playoffs that’s proved a challenge for Tampa Bay. They haven’t won a pennant since 2020, the year they came up just short in the World Series to the Dodgers (remember Kevin Cash giving Blake Snell the hook that broke up a 73-pitch shutout in Game 6? Why, Kevin Cash, why?). Despite finishing a very respectable 99-63 in 2023, Tampa Bay was erased in the Wild Card series by the Texas Rangers. (Well, the Rangers erased the Orioles, too, in the AL Division Series, so maybe this fact doesn’t tell us much.)
Have they done enough this offseason to get over the hump? This is far from clear. They lost arguably their three best starting pitchers to major surgeries, traded another (Tyler Glasnow), and saw their best position player knocked out of eligibility due to his myriad off-field legal troubles. This team is amazing at spinning straw into gold, but this might be too much, even for them.
Additions & Subtractions
Let’s start with the subtractions. Lots of turnover for the Rays here, much of it due to bad luck. Wander Franco, their 5.5-WAR star shortstop last season, showed massive heaps of bad judgment in his private life, and won’t be back with the team anytime soon. Left-handed outfielder Luke Raley was traded to Seattle.
Four starting pitchers are out with injuries right now. Drew Rasmussen (internal brace surgery, elbow), Jeffrey Springs (Tommy John) and Taj Bradley (pectoral) will miss extended time but should be back later in the season. Shane McClanahan (Tommy John, August) will not be back on the mound any time soon.
In December, the Rays traded Tyler Glasnow to the Dodgers for right-hander Ryan Pepiot. The loss of the 6’8” fireballer Glasnow, one of the best pitchers in the game when he’s healthy, feels hard to swallow. Then again, Tampa Bay has doing this for years: they unsentimentally moved on from their Cy Young winner, David Price, in 2014. Same with Blake Snell in in 2020. Now Glasnow. Each time, the front office has managed to field a competitive starting rotation without missing a beat.
As to the “additions” side, trusted utility player Amed Rosario came over from LAD to help play the matchups. First base bat Jonathan Aranda hasn’t gotten much big-league time, but he carved up Triple-A pitching last year (1.062 OPS). Also, trio of prospects Junior Caminero, Curtis Mead and Carson Williams are all knocking at the door.
Starting Rotation (projected)
1. RHP Zach Eflin
2. RHP Aaron Civale
3. RHP Zack Littell
4. RHP Ryan Pepiot
5. RHP Taj Bradley
Despite all the injuries, this is a rotation with lots of upside. 29-year-old righty Zach Eflin signed a three-year, $40 million deal in 2022 before pitching to a 3.50 ERA and 1.024 WHIP in 31 starts last season. He’s been a high-value signing for Tampa Bay thus far. Connecticut-born Aaron Civale gave the team a 3.46 ERA in 23 starts last season and has room to grow. Littell, a midseason pickup from Boston last year, finished the season 3-6 with a 3.93 ERA as a starter/reliever.
Perhaps the real wild card in the rotation is Ryan Pepiot, the key return in the Glasnow trade. The 26-year-old Pepiot, a Dodgers’ third-round pick in 2019, went 3-0 for LA with a 3.47 ERA for in nine games in 2022, and in an injury-shortened 2023, he finished 2-1 with a 2.14 ERA and a stellar 0.72 WHIP. He is reputed to have a great fastball-changeup combination and is working on a slider.
Also worth keeping an eye on is Shane Baz. A top-10 MLB prospect before his 2022 season ended with him having Tommy John surgery, the expectation is that he’ll return at some point toward the middle of the season. Assuming Baz comes back healthy, he has ace upside.
Tampa Bay has a track record at this, but it’s a real question whether this rotation can absorb all the shocks it’s been through in the last year or so.
Bullpen
The bullpen in Tampa hasn’t undergone much turnover, and it shouldn’t be the team’s weakest link. Righty Pete Fairbanks had 25 saves last year and will likely shoulder the closer role in 2024, despite the fact that the Rays aren’t much for fixed roles.
In the setup role, you have RHP Jason Adam (2.98 ERA in 56 appearances last year), LHP Colin Poche (2.23 ERA in 66 outings) and RHP Phil Maton (brother of Nick, 3.00 ERA in 68 appearances).
For the middle, there’s RHP Shawn Armstrong (1.38 ERA across 52 innings in 2023), LHP Garrett Cleavinger (3.00 ERA in 15 games) and RHP Chris Devenski (4.46 ERA in 38 games). Drew Rasmussen, when he returns from injury, will join what is a solid outfit.
Starting Lineup (projected)
1. Yandy Díaz, 1B
2. Brandon Lowe, 2B
3. Randy Arozarena, LF
4. Josh Lowe, RF
5. Isaac Paredes, 3B
6. Jonathan Aranda, DH
7. José Siri, CF
8. José Caballero, SS
9. René Pinto, C
Not much change here, other than José Caballero, acquired from Seattle in the Luke Raley trade, and the predicted rise of prospect Jonathan Aranda, who’s fighting for a spot on the roster after a .339 average in Triple-A last season.
Back are three of the Rays’ top-four WAR producers, All-Star Yandy Díaz (5.2 WAR), Isaac Paredes (4.2 WAR) and Josh Lowe (3.7 WAR). 2023 All-Star Randy Arozarena will look to build on a 120 OPS+ season—a down year for him, but not for most people.
The rest of the lineup seems solid as well: infielder Brandon Lowe (no relation to Josh, projected by ZiPS to post a .785 OPS), infielder/DH Harold Ramírez (a projected .765 OPS), CF José Siri (.722), and catcher René Pinto (.723).
Finally, there’s Rays No. 1 prospect Junior Caminero, who’s expected to make more appearances with the big club in 2024 after a seven-game tryout last season. The 20-year-old is currently ranked at No. 4 in MLB Pipeline’s prospect rankings, where he’s been given a whopping 70 grade in Power on the 20-80 scale.
Projections
PECOTA: 87-75
USA Today: 93-69
FanGraphs: 86-76
DraftKings Sportsbook: Over/Under 85.5 Wins, +550 to win the AL East, +1500 to win the AL Pennant, +3500 to win the World Series
The projections have Tampa Bay winning anything from 86 to 93 wins, all of them, it’s worth noting, calling for something of a regression from 2023’s 99-win effort. This seems fair, but then again, it’s hard to know with this team: they’re a perennial playoff regular and they’re masters in roster construction, as their consistent pitching year-in, year-out proves.
I think it’d be foolish to count out the Rays this year. They’ll be on the short list of Wild Card contenders, with a chance to do more, depending on how their new rotation plays out.