The injury bug bit just about everyone on the Rays roster a season ago. After a quiet offseason, they will be hoping that a clean bill of health and improvement from their homegrown players leads them to a playoff spot.
This week, Camden Chat is previewing the rest of the division and other expected AL contenders. We’ve already covered the Yankees, Red Sox, and Blue Jays.
The 2024 Rays were not a very good team. Opponents outscored them by 59 runs. The only team in baseball that scored less was the historically bad Chicago White Sox. The Rays’ best pitcher missed the entire season, and they traded away their best position player.
Despite all of that, they still managed to win 80 games and stay (somewhat) in the hunt for a wild card spot deep into September. That’s a credit to the management of Kevin Cash, the depth within the organization, and probably a little bit of luck.
The biggest offseason news for the Rays was in regards to their stadium situation. In October, Hurricane Milton damaged Tropicana Field so badly that the park will be out of commission until 2026. As a result, the Rays will be playing their 2025 home games at Steinbrenner Field in Tampa, the spring home of the New York Yankees.
Tropicana Field will be repaired, but it is unclear how long the Rays will remain at their current home. Their existing lease of the park runs through 2028. The team had tentative plans for a new $1.3 billion stadium in St. Petersburg in the near future, but that seems to have been shelved for the time being. The newest proposed plan from Rays ownership is to make major renovations to Tropicana Field and extend the Rays lease for 10 years, but it does not sound like city and county were on board with that idea.
Stadium drama is one of the more repellent aspects of professional sports. The Orioles just wrapped up their own episode in 2023. Let’s not talk about it again for another 30 years, OK?
Additions and Subtractions
- Notable additions: INF Ha-Seong Kim, C Danny Jansen, RHP Alex Faedo, DH Eloy Jiménez (MiLB deal)
- Notable subtractions: OF José Siri, LHP Jeffrey Springs, OF Dylan Carlson, LHP Tyler Alexander
It was a very Rays offseason. Arguably their most significant move came this month, when they exercised a 2026 option on first baseman Yandy Díaz and added a 2027 option that vests on 500 plate appearances, a mark he has reached in four straight seasons.
But in terms of dollar amount, the signing of Ha-Seong Kim was far and away their largest commitment. At $13 million, he will be the highest paid player on the roster, and could make $16 million in 2026 if he does not opt out. The caveat is that Kim is recovering from a labrum tear in his right shoulder that will put him on the IL to begin the season. It’s unclear when he will return, but when he does he should be the everyday shortstop.
Starting Rotation
- Shane McClanahan
- Drew Rasmussen
- Zack Littell
- Ryan Pepiot
- Taj Bradley
- Shane Baz
This is where the Rays will hope to earn their wins in 2025, but only if they get better injury luck. All six of these players missed some amount of time due to injury last year, and in some cases those injuries were significant.
Shane McClanahan missed all of 2024 with Tommy John surgery. He’s back for 2025, and has been named the Opening Day starter. It’s for good reason too. McClanahan had been an All-Star in 2022 and ‘23, and was a top 10 finisher in Cy Young voting in ‘22. If healthy, he should be one of the game’s top starters again.
Drew Rasmussen is another big talent who has had arm issues. He has already had two Tommy John surgeries and just came back from an internal brace procedure last year. The Rays are using him as a starter this spring, but they are expected to be cautious with the hard-throwing 29-year-old.
Zack Littell doesn’t overwhelm you with his stuff, but he was the team’s most productive starter a season ago and threw the most innings. His presence feels like a requirement in a group with plenty of injury concerns. His IL stint was brief, and simply attributed to “right shoulder fatigue” late in the season.
Pepiot, Bradley, and Baz all have “Top Prospect” pedigree and pitched to varying levels of success in 2024. Pepiot was limited by two injuries: a leg contusion in May and then a knee infection in July that cost him a month. Bradley has scuffled a bit in his first two seasons (5.59 ERA in ‘23, 4.11 ERA in ‘24), and missed a month last year with a strained pectoral. Baz led the starters with a 131 ERA+ but tossed only 79.1 innings after recovering from Tommy John and spending a month in Triple-A after some early struggles.
Bullpen
Pete Fairbanks is expected to be the closer, and he is hoping to be healthier and more productive in 2025. Are we sensing a theme here? His strikeout numbers were down significantly last season from 13.50 K/9 in ‘23 to just 8.74 K/9 in ‘24. The fastball was down from an average of 98.9 mph in ‘23 to 97.3 mph in ‘24. Perhaps that is related to the two IL stints he made in relation to his arm and shoulder, or maybe he is slowing down.
Other names to watch in the bullpen are Kevin Kelly, former Orioles draft pick Garrett Cleavinger, and recently-signed Alex Faedo. Cleavinger is the most experienced member of the ‘pen outside of Fairbanks, but Kelly was their top relief arm a season ago, pitching to a 150 ERA+ over 70.2 innings.
Starting Lineup (projected)
- Yandy Díaz, 1B
- Brandon Lowe, 2B
- Junior Caminero, 3B
- Josh Lowe, RF
- Christopher Morel, LF
- Jonathan Aranda, DH
- Danny Jansen, C
- Jonny DeLuca, CF
- Taylor Walls, SS
Kim’s eventual return from the labrum tear will help, but this is a light-hitting crew no matter how you slice it. They really need a full, healthy season from Brandon Lowe if they are going to scare anyone. The second baseman was limited to 107 games a season ago, but has looked good this spring. Lowe, Yandy Díaz, and Josh Lowe are the veterans that the rest of the lineup will look to for consistency.
Junior Caminero has a chance to be the breakout star of this team. He was a top-five prospect going into 2024 and did a nice job over 43 games with the Rays last year. The team has handed the 21-year-old the third base job and will expect a lot from him.
Fortunately, the Rays do feature some bench pieces that are interesting. José Caballero led the league with 44 stolen bases a season ago, and Towson University product Richie Palacios is a capable fill-in all over the field.
Projections
PECOTA: 82-80
FanGraphs: 82-80
This would be a slight improvement from their 80 wins in 2024, although it would be a bigger step forward if you consider their 74-88 Pythagorean win-loss projection from last year.
On one hand, you would have to assume they get a bit luckier on the injury front in 2025. It was just brutal last year. If that does happen, their pitching staff is good enough to keep them competitive, and there is upside to their lineup.
But pitchers that struggle with injuries do not tend to just put those things behind them. It lingers. So the Rays will need to be cautious and watch workloads for nearly all of their top arms. That puts more pressure on an unproven bullpen and a lineup with limited pop.
You can never write the Rays off. They’re the Rays. All they do is win in exceedingly annoying ways with anonymous rosters. Why would 2025 be any different?