The Blue Jays are an annual threat in the AL East, but can they make up last year’s 12-game gap between themselves and the Orioles?
A decade ago, if you asked Orioles fans which team was their most hated division rival, the Yankees and Red Sox would have been popular choices. The two high-payroll behemoths spent years beating up on the Birds as legions of their most obnoxious fans swarmed Camden Yards.
Yet, since the mid-2010s, another team has emerged as perhaps the biggest irritant for O’s fans. The Toronto Blue Jays have been squarely in the middle of some tense moments with the Orioles, from José Bautista’s weird grudge against Darren O’Day to a Blue Jays fan throwing a beer can at Hyun Soo Kim to recent squabbles between Robbie Ray and Brandon Hyde as well as Bryan Baker against various Blue Jays sluggers. These teams don’t like each other very much, folks. And that doesn’t figure to change as they continue to duke it out for division dominance.
The Blue Jays have emerged as an annual contender in the tough AL East, making the playoffs in three of the last four seasons (and missing by just one game in the other). They have not, however, won any postseason games in that stretch, getting swept 2-0 in the Wild Card Series in 2020, 2022, and 2023. Last year, the Blue Jays claimed the third wild card spot with an 89-73 record but lost twice in Minnesota to take an early exit, scoring just one run in the series.
The Jays have their sights set on a better showing this time around, and their talented roster should put them in the thick of the division race once again.
Additions and subtractions
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Additions: DH Justin Turner, DH Daniel Vogelbach, IF Isiah Kiner-Falefa, 1B/DH Joey Votto, RHP Yariel Rodríguez,
DH Shohei Ohtani(lol, jk) - Subtractions: 3B Matt Chapman, IF/OF Whit Merrifield, 1B/DH Brandon Belt, RHP Jordan Hicks, LHP Hyun Jin Ryu
While the Blue Jays weren’t totally dormant this winter, the biggest story was who they didn’t sign. Once rumored to be on the verge of landing the generational superstar and two-time MVP Ohtani — close enough that fans, media, and even Blue Jays players breathlessly tracked a supposed Ohtani flight from Orange County to Toronto that turned out to belong to a Shark Tank judge — the Blue Jays fell short to the Dodgers in the Shohei sweepstakes. The rest of the AL East breathed a collective sigh of relief. Sorry, not sorry, Blue Jays fans.
The handful of players the Jays did acquire won’t come close to making the impact that Ohtani would have. Toronto signed designated hitter and long-ago Oriole Justin Turner away from the AL East rival Red Sox. He’ll get the bulk of the playing time that last year belonged to Belt, who was productive but remains unsigned.
Still, the Jays added a couple of other DH candidates to the pile, none more prominent than future Hall of Famer Joey Votto, a Toronto native who was let go by the Reds after 17 seasons. (Votto, one of MLB’s truly delightful personalities, made the official announcement by posting his baby picture in Blue Jays gear.) It’s always an internal struggle as a fan when one of your favorite players signs with a team that you normally wish only bad things for. Votto is on a minor league contract and isn’t guaranteed to make the team, but I hope that he does and that he excels while the Blue Jays otherwise fall apart.
The Blue Jays downgraded at third base, with four-time Gold Glover Matt Chapman leaving after two seasons to sign with San Francisco. Toronto’s primary replacement is Kiner-Falefa, a former Yankees utility man who will likely be overexposed as a regular starter. Elsewhere, southpaw Hyun-Jin Ryu left the majors after 10 seasons to return to his homeland, signing with the Korea Baseball Organization’s Hanwha Eagles, for whom he pitched from 2006-12.
Starting rotation
- RHP Kevin Gausman
- RHP José Berríos
- RHP Chris Bassitt
- LHP Yusei Kikuchi
- RHP Bowden Francis
On paper, the Blue Jays’ rotation is one of the strongest in the league. They’ll return their four best starters from last season — Gausman, Berríos, Bassitt, and Kikuchi — each of whom started more than 30 games, posted a sub-4.00, and had an fWAR of 2.6 or better. That quality quartet is fronted by the former Oriole Gausman, who finished third in the AL Cy Young vote last year and led the AL with 237 strikeouts and 11.5 K/9. Gausman has dealt with some right shoulder fatigue in camp that has put his status for the Opening Day roster in doubt, but he’s expected to miss very little time, if any. He’s still the betting favorite to win this year’s AL Cy Young.
The veterans Berríos, Bassitt, and Kikuchi are all capable of spinning a strong outing on any given night, although the Orioles weren’t intimidated by any of them last year. They hounded Bassitt for 12 runs in two starts, and chased Kikuchi in the fifth inning in three of his four starts. And they finally solved Berríos, defeating him on Aug. 25 after he had been a perfect 10-0 in his career against the Birds.
The fifth starter’s job was expected to belong to Alek Manoah, hoping to bounce back from a disastrous 2023 season in which he struggled to a 5.87 ERA and 1.74 WHIP and was banished to Rookie Ball to figure things out. Manoah’s shoulder soreness this spring, though, will sideline him indefinitely, opening the door for right-hander Bowden Francis, who has pitched 21 MLB games in relief with a 1.70 ERA. A dark horse is 27-year-old Cuban right-hander Yariel Rodriguez, signed to a five-year deal this offseason, who has electric stuff but was delayed by a back injury this spring.
Bullpen
Nearly every key reliever from the 2023 Blue Jays remains on the roster, anchored by closer and native Canadian Jordan Romano, who had his second straight 36-save, All-Star campaign and is as reliable as they come. After blowing a save against the Orioles on May 20 on a Ryan O’Hearn home run, Romano converted 23 consecutive save chances, posting a 1.93 ERA in that stretch, before a late-September stumble.
Romano will be joined by veteran setup guys Erik Swanson, Tim Mayza, and Yimi García, as well as middle man Trevor Richards, who had the best strikeout rate among Jays relievers (13.0 K/9) but was a little too homer-prone (1.6 HR/9). Midseason acquisition Génesis Cabrera, who posted a sub-1.00 WHIP in 29 games after coming over from the Cardinals, will begin his first full season in Toronto, as will veteran righty Chad Green, who returned from Tommy John surgery late last year. There are no obvious weak links in the Toronto bullpen, but of course relievers tend to be volatile from one year to the next.
Starting lineup (projected)
- George Springer, RF
- Bo Bichette, SS
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr., 1B
- Justin Turner, DH
- Daulton Varsho, LF
- Alejandro Kirk, C
- Kevin Kiermaier, CF
- Isiah Kiner-Falefa, 3B
- Cavan Biggio, 2B
The Blue Jays’ offense was middle-of-the-road last year, ranking 14th in MLB in runs scored (746) and 16th in homers (188), though their .329 team OBP was tied for seventh. It feels like there’s the potential for more. The Jays will be hoping for bouncebacks from guys like Kirk, who went from an All-Star season in 2022 to a sub-.700 OPS in 2023, and Varsho, who OPS’d just .674 in his Toronto debut last year. And if Guerrero could recapture his 2021 magic, when he was MVP runner-up with a league-leading 48 homers, 363 total bases, .401 OBP, and .601 SLG, he’d transform the lineup. He’s still just 24 years old, so it’s not out of the question. Even if he doesn’t reach those levels again, Guerrero and fellow second-generation big leaguer Bichette make for a dynamic duo.
Yet another baseball son, Biggio, mans second base, though he’s more of a role player than an everyday starter. He could split time with the expertly mustachioed Davis Schneider, who came out of nowhere in 2023 to post a 1.008 OPS in 35 big league games. In the outfield, Varsho and the looking-to-rebound George Springer will sandwich Kiermaier, a brilliant defender who re-signed with the Jays to man center field again.
Toronto’s lineup will get a boost when catcher Danny Jansen returns from the wrist fracture that will sideline him for several weeks. Jansen is one of the better hitting backstops in the league, popping a career-best 17 homers last season — including four against the Orioles — and posting an .855 OPS the year before.
Projections
PECOTA: 88-74
USA Today: 86-76
FanGraphs: 84-78
DraftKings Sportsbook: Over/under 86.5 wins, +400 to win AL East, +950 to win AL pennant, +2000 to win World Series
The prognosticators all peg the Jays as a good if not great team, each projecting them for a winning season that nonetheless might not earn them a wild card spot. It wouldn’t be outlandish for the Blue Jays to win the division, just as it wouldn’t be ridiculous for them to finish near the cellar. In a division where every win counts, the Jays’ 13 games against the Orioles should be pressure-packed affairs, adding more tension for two teams that already aren’t on the best terms.