CLEVELAND—The trade deadline is less than a week away, and there are many questions and unknowns involving the Orioles. Let’s take a look:
When could the deals begin? The trades could begin at any time, but the guess here is that most will happen in the hours preceding the 6 p.m. deadline on July 31st.
In 2019, Mike Elias’ first trade deadline, he traded his most attractive piece at the time, right-handed starter Andrew Cashner, to the Boston Red Sox on July 13th. In return, the Orioles received two teenaged Latin American prospects, outfielder Elio Prado, who’s no longer in the organization, and infielder Noelberth Romero, who remains but has never approached prospect status.
Who’s most likely to be traded? After his excellent two months, 41-year-old Charlie Morton has vaulted past Ryan O’Hearn as the most likely Oriole to be sought after.
In his 10 starts since May 26th, Morton is 6-1 with a 3.81 ERA. If he can duplicate that for a contender, he would be a solid addition.
O’Hearn, the starting designated hitter for the American League, is hitting .281 with an .827 OPS. But in his last 30 games, O’Hearn is batting just .221 with two home runs and 10 RBIs.
He’s a streak hitter who can carry a team if he gets hot, and he’s certainly worth a look, though he’s best as a DH since his defense at first base isn’t great.
Does Bautista’s injury change the bullpen dynamic? The feeling here is that it doesn’t. Seranthony Domínguez, with a 3.32 ERA and 53 strikeouts in 40 2/3 innings, could be coveted in the coming days. So could left-hander Gregory Soto, who has a 3.96 ERA and is also averaging more than a strikeout per inning (44 strikeouts in 36 1/3 innings).
I didn’t think the Orioles were serious about trading Bautista, who has two years of club control remaining. If they want to contend next season, a top-tier closer is a necessity. When healthy, that’s what Bautista is.
I think both Domínguez and Soto will be leaving between now and the deadline.
That leaves Andrew Kittredge, who has a $9 million option for next season. The option complicates a possible deal, and it would be easier to trade for Domínguez or Soto, who are free agents after this year.
If Bautista’s out, and Domínguez and Soto are gone, where does that leave the Orioles’ bullpen?
It would leave them with Kittredge, Yennier Cano and Keegan Akin, who should return soon to the active roster. There would be opportunities for Corbin Martin, Colin Selby, Kade Strowd and Grant Wolfram, all currently on the roster, to prove they belong in the big leagues.
It might also present chances for prospects Keagan Gillies, who pitched in the Futures Game, and Houston Roth.
What about Cedric Mullins?
Mullins is hitting only .214 and has 13 home runs and 42 RBIs. In the last 30 games, Mullins is batting just .168 with two homers and eight RBIs.
He probably profiles as a fourth outfielder, and he’s unlikely to be highly sought after.
Are Zach Eflin and Tomoyuki Sugano going to stay with the team?
Eflin had a strong start on Wednesday night, giving up two runs on five hits in five innings after being on the injured list with a sore back. He’s had some excellent starts this season, and some awful ones.
Overall, he has a 5.78 ERA in 13 starts. He’s had two stints on the injured list for a lat strain and the back injury. Last season, Eflin had a 2.60 ERA in nine starts after he was traded to the Orioles at the deadline.
If a contender trades for him, they’d probably be satisfied with an ERA somewhere between last year’s and this year’s.
As for Sugano, his ERA has risen to 4.54, and he hasn’t been the dependable starter he was in the first two months of the season.
The Orioles might have to pay some of what remains of his $13 million to find a taker.
Is Laureano on the market?
He shouldn’t be. The Orioles have struggled to find competent outfielders this season with Mullins and Colton Cowser underperforming, and Tyler O’Neill missing so much time for injuries.
Laureano has 14 home runs, 43 RBIs, a .277 average and .858 OPS. In his last 30 games, he’s hitting .295 with six home runs and 26 RBIs and an .886 OPS.
He has a $6.5 million option for next season, and the Orioles could use outfield help. They should hold on to him.
What can they expect in return?
The last time the Orioles sold at the trade deadline was in 2022 when Elias traded closer Jórge López and slugger Trey Mancini. It was the perfect time to trade them both.
López had just been an All-Star a few weeks before, and the popular Mancini hit a clumsy inside-the-park home run in what turned out to be his last home game.
The Orioles received a package from the Twins that included Cano, who became an All-Star in 2023, and left-handed prospect Cade Povich along with two minor leaguers.
Starting prospects Seth Johnson and Chayce McDermott came for Mancini. Johnson was sent to the Phillies in the Soto trade last year. McDermott, who’s currently injured, has pitched in three games for the Orioles in 2024 and 2025.
Notes: In his first game since having Tommy John surgery last June, Kyle Bradish allowed one run on two hits in two innings for High-A Aberdeen. Bradish struck out four and walked one, throwing 37 pitches. …Ryan Mountcastle hit a two-run home run in his first rehab game for Triple-A Norfolk. He was 1-for-3 and played first base. Mountcastle is on the 60-day injured list with a right hamstring injury…Cade Povich, who is rehabbing a left hip injury threw five innings, allowed two runs, one unearned on two hits. He walked two and struck out six, throwing 70 pitches. He could start one of the games in Tuesday’s doubleheader.
Call for questions: I answer Orioles questions most weekdays. Please send yours to: Rich@BaltimoreBaseball.com.