The Orioles are facing an intriguing decision on Ryan Mountcastle. Their 27-year-old first baseman, who was the 36th overall pick in the 2015 draft, will soon become, along with centerfielder Cedric Mullins, the longest tenured members of the organization.
Starting pitcher John Means is the player who’s been in the Orioles’ organization the longest, but he’ll be filing for free agency after the World Series ends, and because of June’s Tommy John surgery, his future is uncertain.
Mountcastle, who earned $4,137,000 this season, could get a bump to $6.5 million in arbitration for 2025, according to MLBTradeRumors.com.
He’s just two seasons away from free agency, and the Orioles have a host of candidates for extensions. He might not be high on their priority list.
Mountcastle missed a crucial month with a sprained left wrist he sustained on August 22nd. Three weeks before, the Orioles lost infielder Jordan Westburg to a fractured right hand. Without the right-hand hitting Mountcastle and Westburg, their offense sagged and lost some of its balance.
Mountcastle did come back for the last two series of the regular season, hitting .381 (8-for-21). He was hitless in seven at-bats in the Wild Card Series and chased a number of pitches outside the strike zone.
For all of 2024, Mountcastle hit .271 with a .733 OPS, 13 home runs and 63 RBIs. The Orioles were 74-50 with him in the lineup and 17-21 without him. His absence put left-hand hitting Ryan O’Hearn in the everyday lineup, weakening the defense and taking away an effective platoon option.
In 2023, Mountcastle missed time with vertigo and an AC joint inflammation.
This past season, Mountcastle hit 271 in the first and second halves, but he had 12 homers and 43 RBIs before the All-Star break and just one home run, which came on July 29th and 20 RBIs, in the second half.
They are worrisome statistics. Mountcastle walked in 5.5 percent of his at-bats, a career low, and his percentage of barrels fell from 15 percent in 2022 to 12.1 percent in 2023 and only 8.8 percent this past season.
Mountcastle’s ground-ball percentage (44.4 percent) was a career high and his fly ball percentage (34 percent) a career low.
He’s also pulling the ball less than ever (27.9 percent) and going to the opposite field (33.4 percent) more than ever, although he’s not driving the ball the way he once did.
Like Trey Mancini, there’s been talk that Mountcastle has been unnerved by the changed dimensions of Oriole Park, where the left-field wall is nearly 30 feet deeper and 6 feet higher.
While I don’t have figures on how many fly balls that would have been home runs in pre-2022 Camden Yards, Mountcastle has still managed to hit balls out to left field in the last three seasons as well as use his ability to hit the ball the other way.
In 2024, things seemed to change. After hitting his first three home runs to left field at home, his other 10 homers were hit either on the road or to center and right field in Baltimore.
Despite those statistics, there’s another real value to Mountcastle whose WAR (Wins Above Replacement) was a healthy 2.6, the best of his career. His outstanding play at first base contributed to a .2 Defensive WAR, also a career best.
Mountcastle was drafted as a shortstop, and also played third base in his first four seasons in the Orioles’ organization. He moved to first base at Triple-A Norfolk in 2019 and was tried in the outfield until the team decided to abandon that experiment midway through the 2021 season.
He’s worked hard to make himself an asset at first base, and if the Orioles decide to trade him, they would be left without an accomplished right-handed hitting first baseman. O’Hearn, who isn’t nearly as good at first, has a $7.5 million option, and he hits left-handed.
The Orioles don’t have a major league ready first baseman in the minors, though 20-year-old Samuel Basallo, who could be ready for prime time late next season, has often played first in the minors, though he’s primarily a catcher.
Moving on from Mountcastle could open a spot for 22-year-old Coby Mayo. At executive vice president/general manager Mike Elias’ end-of-season press conference, he said that Mayo was more accomplished at first base than third, where he’s played more often in the minor leagues. In the minors, Mayo has played nearly six times more often at third (288 games) than first (51).
Mayo is the eighth-ranked prospect in baseball and hit .287 with a .926 OPS for Norfolk in 2024, hitting 22 home runs with 67 RBIs in 89 games, but his initiation to the major leagues was rough.
In two late-season stints with the Orioles, Mayo hit .092 (4-for-41) with 22 strikeouts, playing mostly third base. He started two games at first.
Mountcastle could be a finalist for the Gold Glove at first, and despite his struggles with the left-field wall and missing substantial time the last two seasons, he’s still an asset at first base and at bat.
Notes: Ken Guthrie, who scouted first-round draft choices Jackson Holliday and Heston Kjerstad, has left the organization for the New York Mets. The news was first reported by the Baltimore Banner. … The Orioles have released minor league right-handers Hugo Beltran and Nelvis Ochoa.
Call for questions: I answer Orioles questions most weekdays. Please send yours to: Rich@BaltimoreBaseball.com.