It’s been a long road back for John Means, but the left hander is finally back in the rotation and making his season debut against Reds left hander Andrew Abbott.
There’s reason for excitement and also caution as John Means makes his first start of the season, and his first start as a regular member of the Orioles rotation since April 2022, when he was shut down for Tommy John surgery. The 31-year-old’s return to the rotation was delayed a few extra weeks this spring, and the month of April saw him make six rehab starts in Triple-A. Let’s say he started slow but got better: he allowed a total 18 runs in 18.2 innings but his last start for Norfolk a was a seven-inning shutout. He threw 95 pitches that day to give this team confidence that he needs no innings limitations.
It’ll be interesting to see whether Means’s stuff and pitch mix look different than they did pre-injury. In ’19 and ’20, Means was a fastball-first pitcher, but in recent years, it’s been below 50% of his offerings. Partly that’s because it’s a low-velocity pitch, but also because of growing confidence in his changeup, which pairs fearsomely with his heater. Over ’22 and ’23, Means’ pitch ratio looked similar, about 42% fastball, 32% changeup, 15% slider, and 11% knuckle curve.
It’s southpaw vs. southpaw as Cincinnati counters with 24-year-old Andrew Abbott. A second-round pick in 2021, Abbott had a strong rookie year, finishing 8-6 with a 3.87 ERA and 120 strikeouts in 100 innings and earning a nod from Baseball America for its MLB All-Rookie team, along with teammates Matt McLain and Spencer Steer. Abbott is 1-3 so far in 2024 with a 3.27 ERA. He’s allowing fewer hits and walks than he did in ’23 but also striking out fewer batters (a 7.36 K/9 rate).
The UVA product relies heavily on his fastball, which he’s throwing 53% of the time. However, it’s his changeup that’s considered his best pitch in terms of run value (+2), whiffs (32.5% rate) and opponent average against (.095). Seven Oriole hitters have faced Abbott, none more than three times; none has a hit against him except Jordan Westburg (1-for-2). Let’s hope that changes tonight.
Orioles lineup
- Gunnar Henderson (L) SS
- Adley Rutschman (S) C
- Ryan Mountcastle (R) 1B
- Anthony Santander (S) RF
- Jordan Westburg (R) 3B
- Jorge Mateo (R) 2B
- Cedric Mullins (L) CF
- James McCann (R) C
- Ryan McKenna (R) LF
LHP John Means (season debut)
Reds lineup
- Jonathan India (R) DH
- Elly De La Cruz (S) SS
- Spencer Steer (R) LF
- Tyler Stephenson (R) C
- Christian Encarnacion-Strand (R) 1B
- Jeimer Candelario (S) 3B
- Santiago Espinal (R) 2B
- Will Benson (L) RF
- Stuart Fairchild (R) CF
LHP Andrew Abbott (1-3, 3.27 ERA, 27 K)