The Orioles have a winning record over the last week. Wednesday’s loss only felt like four in one.
By golly, the Orioles have done it again. They’ve won more games than they’ve lost over the previous Thursday-to-Wednesday period. Why are those the dates for my weeks, you may wonder? Opening Day was a Thursday, so that was the start of week one, and I’ve gone from there. This wasn’t their best week – two weeks ago I was writing about an undefeated week – but for the 2025 team this is uncommonly good.
Not that anybody can even feel good about the fact that the Orioles just played a winning week of baseball, since Wednesday’s loss to the Rays was so bad that it felt like it should count for five losses. It was a winning week all the same.
This series looks at each Orioles game, the most crucial play that happened in it and who was involved, and the Oriole who contributed the most positive to a win or negative to a loss. As we all know by now, it’s been much more losing than winning. These determinations are made using the Win Probability Added stat, which you can find in game logs on Baseball Reference or FanGraphs.
Here’s how that looked over the past week:
Game 67
- Result: Orioles lose to Tigers, 4-1
- Orioles record: 27-40
- The biggest play: Dean Kremer gives up three-run home run to Parker Meadows to give Tigers 4-0 lead (-21%)
- The biggest goat: Kremer (-.229 WPA)
This was the game where the reigning AL Cy Young, Tarik Skubal, made the start for the Tigers. Skubal is mounting a good defense of his Cy, and as a tough lefty when the Orioles struggle against lefties, you could have easily predicted this outcome from this game. Skubal’s dominance (.281 WPA) was the biggest factor in the game. He allowed just three hits over seven innings. Two of these three hits were delivered by Dylan Carlson (.086), the only O’s batter to have a net positive contribution.
Also notable in this game was the Orioles choosing to deploy Keegan Akin (.046) as an opener, followed by Dean Kremer. This was a pretty good outing for Kremer, except for one bad inning. In typical 2025 Orioles fashion, the bottom of the Tigers lineup did the damage, capped by the #9 batter Meadows delivering the three-run homer. He pitched seven innings, gave up four runs, and struck out eight batters. If the offense hadn’t been facing Skubal, maybe they’d have had more of a chance.
Game 68
- Result: Orioles beat Angels, 2-0
- Record: 28-40
- The biggest play: Ryan O’Hearn solo homer, Ramón Laureano solo homer (+11% each)
- The biggest hero: Charlie Morton (.278 WPA)
Morton’s improbable quest to dig himself out of the negatives for the season continued with this outing, in which he managed to hit double digits for strikeouts (10) while working only five innings. It wasn’t pitch counts or ineffectiveness that knocked Morton out, but a lengthy rain delay. Shame to see a good outing interrupted like that, but good work for the relievers who held the line.
Orioles hitters were actually out-hit by the Angels in this game by an 8-6 margin, and the O’s batters went 0-5 in RISP situations. Only three Orioles batters made positive WPA contributions to the game. On this occasion, against a not particularly strong offense of the Angels, that was enough.
Game 69
- Result: Orioles beat Angels, 6-5
- Record: 29-40
- The biggest play: Cedric Mullins hits two-run home run to give Orioles 5-4 lead (+31%)
- The biggest hero: Mullins (.317 WPA)
Not much help from the starting pitcher, Tomoyuki Sugano (-.198 WPA) in this one, which typically for the 2025 Orioles has meant defeat. Sugano gave up two first inning runs, so the O’s trailed before they ever even batted, then after the offense gave him a lead, he let the Angels tie it up again. Akin (-.026) was unable to hold the tie score, allowing a home run to freaking Luis Rengifo, then the worst batter in MLB.
Mullins’s big home run swung the Orioles back on top again, and that’s where things were able to stay. Mounting multiple comebacks was all the more impressive for this squad considering that the Angels starting pitcher, Tyler Anderson, was a lefty, and lefties of all kinds have dominated the Orioles this year. In allowing six runs in five innings, Anderson had one of the worst WPAs you can get (-.582), swinging him down into a net negative for his career.
Game 70
- Result: Orioles beat Angels, 11-2
- Record: 30-40
- The biggest play: Ramón Urías two-run home run gives Orioles 2-1 first inning lead (+15%)
- The biggest hero: Seranthony Domínguez (.168 WPA)
The final score turned out to be a satisfying blowout margin for the Orioles, but it could have gone an entirely different way. Starter-after-opener Cade Povich (-.009 WPA) fell apart before he could complete four full innings, allowing two singles and a walk to load the bases in what was, at that point, a 5-2 Orioles lead. Povich got the hook in favor of Domínguez, who escaped the jam by striking out two bottom of the lineup batters.
For a second consecutive game, the Orioles were able to generate some productivity from their offense despite facing a lefty, Yusei Kikuchi (-.296), who had been pretty good so far this season. Kikuchi did strike out 10 batters, but the O’s got to him for five runs (three earned) in 5.2 innings. Between that and Domínguez holding the line, they didn’t even need the garbage time homers from Gary Sánchez and Jordan Westburg that made it a laugher, but it’s nice they dunked on the Angels anyway.
Game 71
- Result: Rays beat Orioles, 7-1
- Record: 30-41
- The biggest play: Ryan O’Hearn grounds into double play in fourth inning (-13%)
- The biggest goat: Zach Eflin (-.331 WPA)
Eflin gave up all seven of the Runs that the Rays scored over a five inning start, which is a tough day at the office. Twelve hits allowed, two free passes issued. The Rays scored in every inning in which Eflin pitched. It wasn’t even a one bad inning thing. It was an every inning bad thing.
To be sure, the Orioles offense was also bad here, getting dominated by Rays starter Ryan Pepiot (.171 WPA), who struck out 11 batters over eight innings. The only blemish in the runs column was Adley Rutschman hitting a moonshot that may have been wind-aided into a short porch in right field. Following that Rutschman homer, the next two batters reached and the O’s had a chance to keep getting closer (trailing 3-1 at that point). That’s when O’Hearn snuffed the no-out rally with his double play. No Oriole reached base for the rest of the game.
Game 72
- Result: Orioles beat Rays, 5-1
- Record: 31-41
- The biggest play: Colton Cowser breaks 1-1 tie with solo homer in fifth inning (+16%)
- The biggest hero: Ramón Laureano (.151 WPA)
Five innings, you go through the lineup twice, and then you’re out. That’s a modern baseball starting pitching thing. Dean Kremer was only at 81 pitches after retiring Josh Lowe (leadoff man, third time through the order). He didn’t look like he was on the ropes in the fifth, retiring the side in order. The Orioles chose the bullpen over the times through the order penalty and it paid off. Over the last 14 days, the O’s bullpen has a 2.48 ERA. Pretty much everyone was doing well until the next game after this one.
Two different Orioles, Westburg and Carlson, had three hits in the game, but it was Laureano with two hits who got the biggest WPA of the bunch because each of his hits drove in a run. Laureano gave the O’s a 1-0 lead in the second inning and added to what was a one-run lead with a sixth inning RBI single. Getting clutch hits is good. In all, the O’s batted 5-10 with RISP in this game.
Game 73
- Result: Orioles lose, 12-8
- Record: 31-42
- The biggest play: Yennier Cano allows two-run game-tying home run to Brandon Lowe (-28%)
- The biggest goat: Cano (-.423 WPA)
One could argue, quite reasonably, that a chain reaction of failure was set in motion by the fact that starting pitcher Trevor Rogers, despite being staked to an 8-0 lead by his offense, was unable to harness a sufficient level of command to even get through the third inning. Had Rogers been even up to the task of going something like five innings pitched with four runs allowed, that would have been a bad outing but acceptable under the circumstances. In WPA terms, though, giving back three runs of an eight run lead doesn’t make him the biggest guy to blame (-.019 WPA).
I was curious who would end up worse: Cano, the guy who took it from 8-4 to 8-8, or Andrew Kittredge, the guy who took it from 8-8 to a 12-8 loss? The answer is Cano, because when he entered the game the Orioles were 89% to win and when he was yanked, the Orioles were 47%. Kittredge’s outing was also quite bad (-.384) and the fact that both of these guys fell apart with two outs just made it all the more frustrating.
For an Orioles offense that didn’t score after their outburst in the second inning, or even get a hit or walk, the biggest positive contributor was Colton Cowser (.261), who hit a three-run home run to open the game’s scoring.
The best Orioles so far
This time last week, the best Orioles hitter by WPA was Ryan O’Hearn (1.86) and the best pitcher was Seranthony Domínguez (0.99). Updated numbers through this week:
- WPA (hitters): O’Hearn (1.77), Cedric Mullins (0.87), Gunnar Henderson (0.52)
- WPA (pitchers): Domínguez (1.32), Bryan Baker (1.09), Félix Bautista (0.92)
- fWAR: O’Hearn and Henderson (1.8), Adley Rutschman (1.2); Dean Kremer leads pitchers (0.9)
O’Hearn is in the midst of a “last 14 days” split that has generated a .496 OPS, which has sent his WPA down quite a way from its peak. Hopefully the All-Star voters haven’t noticed yet.
For bWAR, the top Orioles are Henderson (2.3), O’Hearn (1.6), Ramón Laureano and Tomoyuki Sugano (1.5).
The worst Orioles so far
In last week’s update, the worst hitter by WPA was Heston Kjerstad (-1.94) and the worst pitcher was Charlie Morton (-1.72). Going forward, I’m going to note players who are no longer on the active MLB roster separately. Here’s how things stand now:
- WPA (hitters): Adley Rutschman (-0.58), Jackson Holliday (-0.44), Coby Mayo (-0.43)
- WPA (pitchers): Morton (-1.45), Yennier Cano (-0.96), Dean Kremer (-0.59)
- WPA (not here now): Kjerstad (-1.94), Cade Povich (-1.37), Kyle Gibson (-1.26)
- fWAR (active): Gary Sánchez, Coby Mayo (-0.2)
In bWAR, the worst active Orioles are Morton (-0.9) and Mayo (-0.5).