Since last week’s update, the Orioles won three and lost three. It won’t be enough to stop the selloff.
Over the last week, the Orioles won two against the Rays at home and lost two to the Rangers on the road, coming out to a .500 week. They’re now 22-20 over interim manager Tony Mansolino’s tenure. Though many of the losses have been so bad that they felt like more, and they plainly still have plenty of problems, the O’s have stopped the bleeding. It’s just they’re running out of time to start a miracle run that might send their trade deadline in a direction of “trade everyone who’s a free agent after this season.”
This series looks at each Orioles game, the most crucial play that happened in it and who was involved, and the Oriole who contributed the most positive to a win or negative to a loss. As we all know by now, it’s been much more losing than winning. These determinations are made using the Win Probability Added stat, which you can find in game logs on Baseball Reference or FanGraphs.
Here’s how that looked over the past week:
Game 81
- Result: Orioles beat Rays, 22-8
- Record: 35-46
- The biggest play: Gary Sánchez hits two-run home run to give Orioles 8-7 fifth inning lead (+22%)
- The biggest hero: Sánchez (.389 WPA)
It wasn’t exactly complete revenge for the Orioles blowing the eight-run lead against the Rays in the previous week, but this was a pretty good clawback towards even as the Orioles came back from 6-0 to turn this game into a blowout where it was the Rays getting embarrassed. The rulers for baseball scorers dictate that Tomoyuki Sugano got the win since he pitched five innings and left with his team leading, even though he gave up seven runs in five innings (-.381 WPA).
Four different Orioles batters swung the game at least 15% towards an O’s victory. This was not a one-man effort, though Sánchez certainly did a lot with four hits, including the go-ahead home run. Colton Cowser (.274) and Ramón Laureano (.233) came through at key moments, as did Ramón Urías (.158). Urías’s contribution is all the more notable since he wasn’t even in the starting lineup. (Jordan Westburg, who Urías replaced, has not been in the starting lineup since, yet the Orioles persist in not placing him on the IL.
Game 82
- Result: Orioles lose to Rays, 11-3
- Record: 35-47
- The biggest play: Zach Eflin allows two-run home run to Jonathan Aranda in first inning (-14%)
- The biggest goat: Eflin (-.320 WPA)
I’ve written this before about the 2025 Orioles and will probably have occasion to say it again: Their most consistent talent is their absolute inability to sustain any kind of positive momentum. If they had been able to have a good game following the big comeback and blowout the previous day, maybe they could have strung some good feelings together.
Instead, Eflin lasted just one inning, giving up four runs before he left due to an injury that’s landed him on the injured list. Summoned for emergency long relief, Scott Blewett (-.055) wasn’t up to the task of keeping the game close, but as far as WPA is concerned, there wasn’t much left to lose at that point. Jackson Holliday had three hits and it didn’t even matter (.024).
Game 83
- Result: Orioles beat Rays, 5-1
- Record: 36-47
- The biggest play: Coby Mayo gives Orioles 2-0 lead with fifth inning RBI single / Colton Cowser gives Orioles 1-0 lead with second inning RBI single (+8% each)
- The biggest hero: Dean Kremer (.340 WPA)
It’s easy to forget after he goes on a stretch of bad starts that Dean Kremer at his best can be really darn good. With just three hits and one walk allowed to the Rays over seven innings where he allowed only one run, he was the kind of dominant that has not been often seen from the Orioles rotation this year. After this outing, Kremer is only a slight negative WPA for the season (-.07). In the aggregate, that’s about what he deserves.
Gary Sánchez’s redemption tour, at least when he’s batting rather than catching, continued in this game, as he had two hits, a run driven in, and run scored. We don’t need to talk about his defense. The batting is rounding into what Mike Elias surely signed up for, though: .247/.316/.447. If he stays around that pace, which obviously isn’t a given, this would be his best hitting season since 2019.
Game 84
- Result: Orioles beat Rangers, 10-6
- Record: 37-47
- The biggest play: Keegan Akin allows three-run game-tying homer in 10th inning to Adolis García (-47%)
- The biggest hero: Gunnar Henderson (.396 WPA)
This was the wild rollercoaster from Monday night that played out like this: The Orioles had a 3-0 lead and eventually lost it by the seventh inning, they scored three runs in the top of the tenth, then Akin absolutely blew it by allowing the game-tying dinger in the bottom of the inning, so the offense put the team on its back and scored four more in the eleventh. That was finally enough to win it.
As a result of all the late back-and-forth, there were three different O’s batters who contributed 27% or more towards an Orioles victory. Surely the most surprising of these was Luis Vázquez (.273 WPA), who entered the game with zero Orioles hits and who ended up delivering the go-ahead hit that stuck in the top of the eleventh inning. Gunnar Henderson’s two-run homer in the tenth was big (.396 WPA for the game). Ramón Laureano made a big impact with four hits as well (.309).
Game 85
- Result: Orioles lose to Rangers, 10-2
- Record: 37-48
- The biggest play: Matt Bowman allows two-run home run to Alejandro Osuna, giving Rangers 5-2 fifth inning lead (-18%)
- The biggest goat: Bowman (-.217 WPA)
Probably not a coincidence that Bowman was designated for assignment after this latest poor outing. Starting pitcher Brandon Young wasn’t very good himself, allowing three runs over four innings, but as far as WPA is concerned, it’s Bowman allowing four runs to turn a 3-2 deficit into a 7-2 deficit that really put things out of reach for the Orioles.
This game was always going to be an uphill battle with the Orioles going up against Jacob deGrom. Getting to him for two runs over six innings is a lot better than the last time they saw him, when he shut them out over seven innings. It still wasn’t enough, partly because of the pitching and partly because the offense was once again stymied by any random lefty pitcher, in this case Jacob Latz. That problem continues. The O’s batting line against lefties for the season: .224/.296/.315. They have the worst slugging percentage when facing lefties of any MLB team.
Game 86
- Result: Orioles lose to Rangers, 6-0
- Record: 37-49
- The biggest play: Tomoyuki allows three-run homer to Marcus Semien, giving Rangers 3-0 third inning lead (-26%)
- The biggest goat: Sugano (-.262 WPA)
The rough run for Sugano continues. It seems like this party might be over. Sugano’s last six starts have seen him in the negatives for WPA, during which time he’s accumulated -1.4 WPA. His ERA has inflated to 4.44 and peripheral statistics like xERA and FIP remain above 5. It would be nice if this signing continued on its early fun trajectory, but this is 2025: We don’t get nice things.
As for the offense, five players had one hit apiece and one player drew two walks. That was it for the offense. The Orioles could have signed the opposing starting pitcher, Nathan Eovaldi, this past offseason; he is on a three-year, $75 million deal with the Rangers and now has a 1.75 ERA through 14 starts of year 1. This is the ninth time that the Orioles have been shut out this year. That already exceeds the eight shutouts over the full season last year.
The best Orioles so far
This time last week, the best Orioles hitter by WPA was Ryan O’Hearn (2.10) and the best pitcher was Seranthony Domínguez (1.41). Updated numbers through this week:
- WPA (hitters): O’Hearn (2.02), Gunnar Henderson (1.07), Colton Cowser (0.96)
- WPA (pitchers): Domínguez (1.39), Félix Bautista (1.31), Trevor Rogers (0.67)
- fWAR: Henderson (2.2), O’Hearn (2.1); top pitcher is Dean Kremer (1.5)
The Orioles offense improved a lot in June, posting a .753 OPS for the month. Many of those hits have come in moments that cashed in big with WPA. If they can keep this going in July, that will probably be enough to help people start to feel better about next year. Or at least assuming such offense comes largely from players who will be here next year.
The worst Orioles so far
In last week’s update, the worst active hitter was Jackson Holliday (-0.51) and the worst pitcher was Charlie Morton (-1.39). Players who are not currently on the active roster are listed separately. Here’s how things stand now:
- WPA (hitters): Holliday (-0.74), Jordan Westburg (-0.40), Coby Mayo (-0.29)
- WPA (pitchers): Morton (-1.39), Yennier Cano (-0.88), Tomoyuki Sugano (-0.66)
- WPA (not here now): Heston Kjerstad (-1.94), Cade Povich (-1.36), Kyle Gibson (-1.25)
- fWAR (active): Coby Mayo (-0.2), Luis Vázquez (-0.1)
There are a whole lot of players in the negatives who are right now on the injured list, in the minor leagues, or exiled from the organization entirely.