The first of what will be a weekly check-in on who’s played well and who hasn’t for the Orioles.
Whether you were alive and old enough to have any memories of the 1979 Orioles team that spawned “Orioles Magic” or not, the song that went along with it has probably sunk into your bones. What’s fun about Orioles Magic as a song and as a concept is that it is perfectly in tune with an essential aspect of any successful baseball team: You really do never know who is going to hear the call, and every game does have a different star.
Future events are beyond our knowledge, so there is no way to look ahead to the Orioles game later today and know whether any O’s player will deliver or which one will do it. We can look back and see who’s heard the call in games that have already happened. In this weekly feature this season on Camden Chat, I’ll be endeavoring to do just that.
On sites like FanGraphs and Baseball Reference, you can find among the assorted statistics one that is called Wins Probability Added, or WPA. It’s interesting to at least look in on it because WPA drills into the idea of what people mean when they talk about “clutch” by identifying how much each specific play moves the needle towards expected victory or defeat for a particular team. The biggest ones that happen late in games are the ones that get stats queen Sarah Langs to say, “Wheeeeee!”
Walkoff wins are pretty big swings. A year ago, the Orioles were losing 2-1 in the ninth inning on May 15 until Adley Rutschman hit a two-run homer and sent everyone home. That was a +68% swing towards the Orioles winning the game. Less fun: Keegan Akin turning a 3-2 lead into a walkoff 5-3 loss when now-Oriole Tyler O’Neill hit a three-run hom erun in the 10th inning on September 11. That was -54% just in that one play.
Over the first week of baseball, here’s who has been making the big difference each game, for good or bad:
Game 1
- Result: Orioles beat Blue Jays, 12-2 (Record: 1-0)
- The biggest play: Tyler O’Neill three-run homer to give a 5-0 Orioles lead (+19% in expectancy)
- The biggest contributor: O’Neill (.234 WPA)
You could hardly have scripted a better “first Opening Day in his home country” for the Canadian O’Neill than the one that he had, with three hits and two walks for a perfect day at the plate. As it turned out, his home run was the biggest mover, sending the game from “The Orioles have a solid chance of winning” to “The O’s are almost certainly going to win.” And so they did.
Game 2
- Result: Orioles lose to Blue Jays, 8-2 (Record: 1-1)
- The biggest play: Charlie Morton bases loaded walk to cut 2-0 Orioles lead to 2-1 (-12%)
- The biggest goat: Albert Suárez (-.213 WPA)
With the Orioles bringing a 2-0 lead into the bottom of the fourth, an already-shaky Morton fell apart. Three straight singles with no one out set the table and Morton could not escape the jam, forcing in a run by walking Jays center fielder Nathan Lukes. The O’s still led the game at this point, but the bases were still loaded with no one out and it got worse from there.
As WPA measures it, Suárez takes the biggest negative since he allowed inherited runners to score plus runs of his own to really put the game out of reach. He won’t be improving on this negative soon since he promptly went on the injured list with shoulder inflammation.
Game 3
- Result: Orioles beat Blue Jays, 9-5 (Record: 2-1)
- The biggest play: Ramón Urías clears the loaded bases with a fourth inning double, flipping a 4-3 deficit to a 6-4 lead (+32%)
- The biggest contributor: Urías (.309 WPA)
There were two outs when Urías came to the plate with the bases loaded and the Orioles trailing by a run. He fell into an 0-2 hole. Urías delivered anyway and the O’s never looked back. The Jays reliever who gave up this big hit, Richard Lovelady, was designated for assignment before the end of the series.
Game 4
- Result: Orioles lose to Blue Jays, 3-1 (Record: 2-2)
- The biggest play: George Springer hits two-run single off Tomoyuki Sugano in first inning, giving Jays a 2-1 lead (-17%)
- The biggest goat: Jorge Mateo (-.184 WPA)
Although Sugano really labored through that first inning and eventually left before the fifth due to hand cramps, he avoids being the biggest goat since he settled down and kept the Orioles in the game. The goat goes to Mateo, who took an 0-3 in the game including an inning-ending double play that snuffed a possible rally in the fourth. The O’s set a record with just 71 GIDP a year ago. Early on, their luck is evening out.
Game 5
- Result: Orioles beat Red Sox, 8-5 (Record: 3-2)
- The biggest play: Jarren Duran hits a two-run triple off Cade Povich in the second inning to cut a 4-0 Orioles lead to 4-2 (-14%)
- The biggest contributor: Ryan Mountcastle (.180 WPA)
The Orioles had 15 hits in this game, so as it worked out, none of their hits individually was worth as much as the “biggest” Red Sox hit. The O’s came out on top in the end. The biggest single positive Orioles play was Cedric Mullins hitting a two-run double that gave the O’s a 4-0 first inning lead. It was a fun first inning.
Game 6
- Result: Orioles lose to Red Sox, 3-0 (Record: 3-3)
- The biggest play: Trevor Story breaks 0-0 with second inning solo home run off of Zach Eflin (-12%)
- The biggest contributor/goat: Mateo (-.105 WPA)
Similar to two games previous, we have a starting pitcher who was not great, who takes the loss in the game but does not come out as the biggest WPA negative. Eflin allowed three runs over six innings. The bare minimum quality start, but a quality start all the same. Mateo, on the other hand, came up to the plate with two men on once and another time with one man on, and he went 0-3 for the night. In a close game, he had chances to put the Orioles closer and he blew them. That gets him another big negative.
The best Orioles so far
In 2024, the best Oriole by WPA was Gunnar Henderson. His season-long total was 3.09 WPA. The year before, it was Félix Bautista at 4.45. Closers have a lot of potential to accumulate WPA since they pitch in high-leverage situations. If they do well, they can rack it up.
- WPA (hitters): Ramón Urías (0.35), Ryan O’Hearn (0.23), Tyler O’Neill (0.17)
- WPA (pitchers): Yennier Cano (0.15), Seranthony Domínguez (0.14), Keegan Akin (0.12)
- fWAR: Jordan Westburg (0.6), Tyler O’Neill (0.4), three Orioles tied with 0.3
With his 0.6 fWAR, Westburg is one of the top ten players in all of MLB through this point in the season.
The worst Orioles so far
The Orioles with the worst WPA a year ago were Colton Cowser (-2.51) and Craig Kimbrel (-2.29). Failed closers can also accumulate a lot of WPA. Theirs just goes into the negative for blowing close games in a late inning.
- WPA (hitters): Jorge Mateo (-0.33), Ramón Laureano (-0.18), Gary Sánchez (0.13)
- WPA (pitchers): Dean Kremer (-0.22), Albert Suárez (-0.21), Charlie Morton (-0.19)
- fWAR: Mateo (-0.3), Sánchez (-0.2), Cionel Pérez (-0.2)