Another losing week for a team of whom much better than this was expected.
For a game, the Orioles can fool you. They can play in a way that matches what was hoped for from this team before the season began, and in that moment it’s easy to believe that maybe they’ll be able to do it again tomorrow and the next day too. Sometimes they even do it a second time in a row, or at least twice in the span of three games, as they did against the Angels this past weekend. Reality quickly returns. The O’s are 2-4 since our last weekly update.
This series looks at each Orioles game, the most crucial play that happened in it and who was involved, and the Oriole who contributed the most positive to a win or negative to a loss. As we all know by now, it’s been much more losing than winning. These determinations are made using the Win Probability Added stat, which you can find in game logs on Baseball Reference or FanGraphs.
Here’s how that looked over the past week:
Game 36
- Result: Orioles lose to Twins, 5-2
- Orioles record: 13-23
- The biggest play: Gregory Soto gives up two-run double to Brooks Lee in 8th inning, putting O’s in 4-2 hole (-35%)
- The biggest goat: Soto (-.297 WPA)
It is a shame to waste any start where Good Dean Kremer makes an appearance. The Orioles had something of a whole team effort in managing to waste this game where Kremer (.176 WPA) only gave up two runs in seven innings. That’s in part thanks to an offense that went 2-13 with RISP – and one of those two hits resulted in an out at home plate rather than a run – and in part thanks to relievers Soto and Yennier Cano combining to blow it.
Cano (-.063) was the one who set the table, so to speak, by walking two of the three batters he faced in a 2-2 tied game in the eighth inning. This was supposed to be his inning to pass the baton and he stunk it up. So too did Soto in relief of him, as Soto allowed both of those inherited runners to score on the big double, then gave up one of his own just for good measure.
Game 37
- Result: Orioles beat Angels, 4-1
- Record: 14-23
- The biggest play: Jackson Holliday delivers RBI single to give Orioles 2-0 second inning lead (+11%)
- The biggest hero: Tomoyuki Sugano (.334 WPA)
This was an excellent outing from Sugano, with just one run allowed on three hits in seven innings. WPA is not concerned that he only struck out five guys, because strikeouts are the same as any other out to WPA. Well, that’s not quite true, since double plays are two outs at once, but let’s not get bogged down in minutiae.
Sugano was staked a lead by Gunnar Henderson’s first inning homer (+10% for Henderson), had a 3-0 lead by the time the O’s had batted in the second inning, and he kept rolling from there. Henderson (.139) and Jackson Holliday (.120) each made solid positive contributions here as the O’s won the game even though, just as in the previous game, the team was only 2-13 with RISP.
Game 38
- Result: Orioles lose to Angels, 5-2
- Record: 14-24
- The biggest play: Cedric Mullins grounds into inning-ending double play in fourth inning (-10%)
- The biggest goat: Kyle Gibson (-.233 WPA)
Five runs allowed in four innings for Gibson, another unambiguous disaster of a start. Not only did he do terribly, he didn’t even record an out in the fifth inning, so he wasn’t even eating innings. The “he didn’t have a spring training” excuse is expired after this start. Gibson has now thrown more innings (counting Norfolk and the Orioles) than any O’s pitcher did in spring training.
The only reason Gibson’s WPA number isn’t worse is because the offense never did much to come back, so Gibson wasn’t constantly blowing the game. He just did it once. Mullins’s GIDP was the most-impactful play by an Oriole, and the next-most was Adley Rutschman doing a GIDP with one on and no one out in the first inning (-7%). In a game started by the mighty Jack Kochanowicz (.207 WPA), the O’s mustered just six total hits.
Game 39
- Result: Orioles beat Angels, 7-3
- Record: 15-24
- The biggest play: Cedric Mullins doubles to put men on second and third with none out, O’s trailing 2-1 in fourth inning (+15%)
- The biggest hero: Mullins (.229 WPA)
This is the game that marked the return of Zach Eflin from the injured list. Allowing two runs in five innings, he had a decent start that was fairly unremarkable in WPA terms (.047) but good enough that you could foolishly believe that maybe things would stabilize for the Orioles. The only problem with this thinking is the entire rest of the Orioles.
I find it interesting that it wasn’t even a run-scoring play that made the biggest impact. Getting second and third with nobody out and you’re trailing by one run is crucial. Not that the Orioles have done much to prove this through this season, but that’s a favorable run-scoring situation. You could tie the game without even getting a hit, as the O’s did with Maverick Handley hitting a sacrifice fly (actually -4% because it reduced the chances of the O’s scoring multiple runs). Mullins, after stealing third base, scored on a Ryan Mountcastle single (+13%).
Game 40
- Result: Orioles lose to Twins, 6-3
- Record: 15-25
- The biggest play: Christian Vázquez hits three-run homer off Dean Kremer to give Twins 4-3 lead in fourth inning
- The biggest goat: Ryan O’Hearn (-.200 WPA)
O’Hearn’s negative WPA only exceeds Kremer’s by literally -.001 (-.199 for Kremer). The otherwise-reliable lefty batter took an 0-5 in the contest, taking substantial negatives as he made outs with two men on base to end each of the fifth and seventh innings. The O’s had the tying run in scoring position in each of those cases and O’Hearn couldn’t do anything with the opportunity. Ramón Urías, fresh off the injured list, took a sizable negative, as did Holliday, Mullins, and Ramón Laureano. Getting only four hits in a game where you were trailing a lot of it by only one run will come off badly for the batters in WPA.
Kremer was also bad, of course, blowing the 3-0 lead that his offense staked him in the very next half-inning. One of the many signs of malaise for this team is that Kremer is its third-best starting pitcher.
Game 41
- Result: Orioles lose to Twins, 8-6
- Record: 15-26
- The biggest play: Cedric Mullins hits grand slam to give Orioles 5-4 lead in third inning
- The biggest goat: Yennier Cano (-.608 WPA)
The Orioles got a go-ahead grand slam from a player who’s been slumping recently and they still ended up losing the game. That’s one sign of just how cursed this season has been and continues to be. Mullins picked up the team after a poor emergency start made by Chayce McDermott (-.260 WPA) as the O’s exploded for six runs in one inning. It ended up being a problem that this was the only inning they scored after Cano blew it all apart in the eighth.
It’s about as bad of an outing as any reliever can have. Really, it would only be worse if it happened in the ninth inning while protecting a larger lead. Cano entered, protecting a one-run lead, and had the following happen: Single, stolen base, balk, walk, three-run home run. The O’s trailed before Cano got anyone out. He retired the next three after it no longer mattered.
The best Orioles so far
This time last week, the best hitter by WPA was O’Hearn (1.11) and the best pitcher was Félix Bautista (0.81). Updated numbers through this week:
- WPA (hitters): O’Hearn (1.01), Cedric Mullins (0.71), Emmanuel Rivera (0.20)
- WPA (pitchers): Bautista (0.86), Tomoyuki Sugano (0.69), Seranthony Domínguez (0.37)
- fWAR: Gunnar Henderson and Cedric Mullins (1.0)
In bWAR, Sugano leads all Orioles (1.3) with Henderson leading batters (1.2).
The worst Orioles so far
In last week’s update, the worst hitter by WPA was Heston Kjerstad (-1.15) and the worst pitcher was Charlie Morton (-1.88). Here’s how things stand now:
- WPA (hitters): Kjerstad (-1.31), Ramón Laureano (-0.52), Adley Rutschman (-0.49) (ouch)
- WPA (pitchers): Morton (-1.86), Kyle Gibson (-0.84), Cade Povich (-0.71)
- fWAR: Morton and Gibson (-0.6)
In bWAR, the worst Orioles are Morton (-1.2) for pitchers and Jorge Mateo (-0.8) for hitters.