The Orioles nearly went this entire week without winning a game.
What a long, strange week it’s been. The Orioles changed managers, they chucked one underperforming starting pitcher, they keep shuffling relievers and juggling injured players and returning players, and through it all they won exactly one game since the last edition of this article – and that one was only yesterday. That eight-game losing streak was brutal. The last six of those eight are the week we’re covering now.
This series looks at each Orioles game, the most crucial play that happened in it and who was involved, and the Oriole who contributed the most positive to a win or negative to a loss. As we all know by now, it’s been much more losing than winning. These determinations are made using the Win Probability Added stat, which you can find in game logs on Baseball Reference or FanGraphs.
Here’s how that looked over the past week:
Game 42
- Result: Orioles lose to Twins, 4-0
- Orioles record: 15-27
- The biggest play: Tomoyuki Sugano gives up two-run home run to DaShawn Keirsey, Jr., giving Twins 2-0 third inning lead (-21%)
- The biggest goat: Sugano (-.164 WPA)
This was the game that prompted the MASN broadcast to highlight just how much the Orioles have struggled against bottom of the lineup hitters, which I also discussed in my recap of this game. Keirsey was the Twins #9 hitter in the game and that was his first home run of the year in his 34th game. Giving up a home run to that guy is tough. The 2025 O’s specialize in getting burned by the 7-8-9 hitters, relative to how the rest of the league is doing. It’s one of many dumb things about this team.
It is, of course, hard to win a game when scoring zero runs. There were a handful of chances with RISP in this game and the Orioles blew them all, going 0-6. Ryan Mountcastle (-.106) and Tyler O’Neill (-.104) were the players with the biggest opportunities to do something good, and they did not take advantage of those chances.
Game 43
- Result: Orioles lose to Nationals, 4-3
- Record: 15-28
- The biggest play: José Tena scores go-ahead run from second base on an infield single in a ninth inning play that also featured a Félix Bautista throwing error (-37%)
- The biggest goat: Bautista (-.315 WPA)
It may be fairly said that this is the game that got Brandon Hyde fired. It was not just any loss. It was a highly-embarrassing loss on the crucial play, the kind of thing where you almost can’t believe it happened. Or so I gather from people’s reactions. I was fortunately out of town and not watching.
Not to be lost beneath Bautista blowing it should be Cedric Mullins watching a third strike practically right down the middle as Jackson Holliday, the tying run, was running to second base with nobody out (-28%) – or Keegan Akin blowing a 3-2 Orioles lead by giving up a homer to Nats lefty batter James Wood (-27%). Get out the lefties, ya loser.
Ramón Laureano went 4-4 in this game and deserved to be remembered as the hero (.281 WPA) if only his teammates didn’t let himself, and the manager, and all of us, down.
Game 44
- Result: Orioles lose to Nationals, 10-6
- Record: 15-29
- The biggest play: Kyle Gibson gives up RBI double to Keibert Ruiz, giving Nationals 2-0 lead with no one out in the first inning (-12%)
- The biggest goat: Gibson (-.428 WPA)
New interim manager, same 2025 Orioles results. Gibson allowed six runs while not even finishing the first inning of the game, an outing that ultimately got him designated for assignment. Mike Elias’s late spring training desperation signing cashed about $1.3 million per major league start this season. It was bad to end up in a position where the Orioles thought they needed Gibson and bad to decide that he was their least bad option.
In WPA terms, the fact that Yennier Cano and Seranthony Domínguez combined to give up three runs in the ninth doesn’t matter all that much, though it did end up being lamentable since the Orioles rallied for four runs in the ninth to get within grand slam territory. Only after Jackson Holliday’s three-run home run to make it 10-6 with one out did the Orioles have at least a 1% chance of winning the game.
Game 45
- Result: Orioles lose to Nationals, 10-4
- Record: 15-30
- The biggest play: Zach Eflin gives up three-run home run to Dylan Crews to give Nationals a 5-0 second inning lead (-16%)
- The biggest goat: Eflin (-.409 WPA)
Eflin essentially did his best Charlie Morton impersonation for one day, except that he was actually able to pitch into the sixth inning while allowing eight runs. Seven of these eight runs crossed in the first two innings.
As with the previous day’s game, in WPA terms, no one took an at-bat or faced a batter with much of any consequence after this point, so although three different Orioles had multi-hit games, no one had any WPA number higher than Ryan O’Hearn’s 0.014. When the starting pitcher is bad early, nothing else matters. This is an unfortunately common theme for the 2025 Orioles.
Game 46
- Result: Orioles lose to Brewers, 5-4
- Record: 15-31
- The biggest play: Yennier Cano allows RBI single to William Contreras, giving Brewers a 5-4 eighth inning lead (-27%)
- The biggest goat: Cano (-.226)
Such a variety of ways to lose across the eight-game losing streak. This one saw the Orioles storm back from a 4-1 deficit thanks to Mullins hitting a three-run homer in the seventh inning (+26%), injecting some life into a team that, once it has fallen behind, has largely not mounted comebacks. This clutch hit could not fuel a victory because Cano got burned with two outs in the eighth, giving up a walk, a stolen base, and then the go-ahead hit. Mullins walked to lead off the ninth and no one could bring him home.
Much like Laureano from several games above, Mullins deserved to be a hero at game’s end here (.392 WPA) but it was not enough. In addition to Cano, big negatives go to Dean Kremer for giving up four runs over 5.1 innings (-.219) and Jackson Holliday’s 1-5 also took a substantial negative (-.217).
Game 47
- Result: Orioles lose to Brewers, 5-2
- Record: 15-32
- The biggest play: Jackson Holliday hits RBI triple to pull Orioles to 3-2 deficit in seventh inning (+14%)
- The biggest goat: Heston Kjerstad (-.200)
Another game, another day with a lack of clutch hitting (1-7 with RISP). They also got a bad outing from a starting pitcher, or in this case a bulk guy behind an opener, as Chayce McDermott walked five batters while giving up three runs in 4.2 innings. No help from the bullpen in keeping it close, with the Orioles choosing to use Bautista in the eighth inning while training by one run, and he did not succeed at this, failing to pitch the full inning and allowing two runs. If you want to make excuses, it’s true that Bautista should have had a strikeout on the guy who hit a home run, but the umpire inexplicably blew the call.
Kjerstad takes the biggest negative because, as he batted with two men on and no one out in the top of the seventh inning, he grounded into a double play rather than do something productive, or at least less unproductive. He took an 0-4 overall. It’s a disappointing common outcome from him this season.
Game 48
- Result: Orioles beat Brewers, 8-4, in 11 innings
- Record: 16-32
- The biggest play: Bautista allows game-tying single to Caleb Durbin with two outs in ninth inning (-44%)
- The biggest hero: Ryan O’Hearn (.475 WPA)
They finally won a game! The losing streak ended, though the Orioles tried their best to lose another. They’d scored only one run through seven innings. Some redemption to Kjerstad here, who finally got a big hit, putting the Orioles ahead by a 3-2 margin with an eighth inning hit. Not that this was enough on its own for the Orioles to win, since Bautista struggled again and blew the save. He had the Brewers down to their last strike and couldn’t finish off the #8 hitter. It’s not great.
Still: They won! They won even though scoring one run in the tenth didn’t prove to be enough to win, with Bryan Baker allowing the Manfred Man to score (-25%), though fortunately he held the line. The Orioles blew it open in the eleventh, starting with Holliday putting the Orioles back on top with an RBI single (+20%). O’Hearn had four hits in the game, the biggest a double in the eighth inning that put the tying run on third base and the go-ahead run on second for the O’s with one out. Both of these guys did score.
The best Orioles so far
This time last week, the best hitter by WPA was Ryan O’Hearn (1.01) and the best pitcher was Félix Bautista (0.81). Updated numbers through this week:
- WPA (hitters): O’Hearn (1.53), Cedric Mullins (0.75), Ramón Urías (0.07)
- WPA (pitchers): Bryan Baker (0.61), Tomoyuki Sugano (0.54), Seranthony Domínguez (0.45)
- fWAR: Cedric Mullins and Ryan O’Hearn (1.2) lead hitters, Gregory Soto (0.4) for pitchers
In bWAR, Sugano leads all Orioles (1.4), with O’Hearn (1.2) as the top batter.
The worst Orioles so far
In last week’s update, the worst hitter by WPA was Heston Kjerstad (-1.31) and the worst pitcher was Charlie Morton (-1.86). Here’s how things stand now:
- WPA (hitters): Kjerstad (-1.56), Adley Rutschman (-0.61), Jorge Mateo (-0.53)
- WPA (pitchers): Morton (-1.86), Yennier Cano (-0.85), Cade Povich (-0.69)
- WPA (the fallen): Kyle Gibson (-1.26)
- fWAR: Gibson (-0.7) for pitchers, Ryan Mountcastle (-0.5) for hitters
Morton and Gibson are tied for the worst bWAR (-1.1) among all Orioles. Kjerstad sits at the bottom for hitters (-0.8).