The Orioles actually won three games in a row over this past week. That was fun.
It finally happened! The 2025 Orioles won three straight games. The feat is all the more unexpected considering that the starting pitchers for those three games were Trevor Rogers, Dean Kremer, and Charlie Morton, three guys who’ve struggled a lot this year. It can be done. As the saying goes, you’re not as bad as you are when you’re losing. Though these Orioles, unfortunately, have a whole lot of room to be “not as bad” and still be pretty bad.
This series looks at each Orioles game, the most crucial play that happened in it and who was involved, and the Oriole who contributed the most positive to a win or negative to a loss. As we all know by now, it’s been much more losing than winning. These determinations are made using the Win Probability Added stat, which you can find in game logs on Baseball Reference or FanGraphs.
Here’s how that looked over the past week:
Game 49
- Result: Orioles lose to Red Sox, 19-5
- Orioles record: 16-33
- The biggest play: Seranthony Domínguez allows game-tying single to Ceddanne Rafaela in the sixth inning (-21%)
- The biggest goat: Domínguez (-.278 WPA)
Many of the blowouts the Orioles have suffered this year involved a bad game by the starting pitcher and nothing ever being close. This was not one of those games. Cade Povich (.183 WPA) allowed just one run through five innings and left the game with a 2-1 lead.
Domínguez lit the game on fire as the O’s allowed five runs to Boston in the sixth inning, with Gregory Soto (-.265) adding to the inferno when he gave up a three-run dinger to lefty batter Rafael Devers. Cionel Pérez (-.002) marched towards the DFA line by allowing five runs in one inning of work, but by that point the game was close to a lost cause so his negative contribution barely measures by WPA.
Game 50
- Result: Orioles lose to Red Sox, 6-5
- Record: 16-34
- The biggest play: Soto allows walkoff single in tenth inning to Devers (-30%)
- The biggest goat: Zach Eflin (-.385 WPA)
The Orioles had a 5-2 lead going into the bottom of the fifth inning, in part thanks to big hits collected by Gunnar Henderson (0.015 WPA) and Ramón Urías (-0.097 even with a 2 RBI game). Unfortunately, Eflin was not up to the task of holding the lead, allowing a run in the fifth and two more in the sixth, where he failed to record an out after facing three batters. An error meant this was not all his fault. Still: The O’s need better than five runs in five innings from Eflin.
This was another game where the Orioles repeatedly blew opportunities with runners in scoring position, going 3-13 over the contest. Ryan Mountcastle’s hitless game hurt the cause (-.148). Heston Kjerstad grounding into an eighth inning double play (-18%) was also crucial. The O’s could not score their Manfred Man in the tenth. Soto promptly allowed Boston’s guy to score even though he was, again, facing a lefty.
Game 51
- Result: Orioles beat Red Sox, 2-1
- Record: 17-34
- The biggest play: Ryan O’Hearn breaks scoreless tie with RBI single in eighth inning (+26%)
- The biggest hero: Seranthony Domínguez (.338 WPA)
This was a solid redemption game for semi-permanent punching bag Trevor Rogers (.304 WPA), who served as the extra man for the doubleheader, started the second game with me having absolutely no expectations that he would do anything good, and tossed off 6.1 scoreless innings – all the while being matched for zeroes by Boston’s Lucas Giolito. And also a nice bit of redemption for Domínguez, who logged a five out save to close out the win.
Game 52
- Result: Orioles beat Red Sox, 5-1
- Record: 18-34
- The biggest play: Dylan Carlson’s solo home run in fifth inning gives Orioles 2-0 lead (+11%)
- The biggest hero: Dean Kremer (.287 WPA)
It really helps if your starting pitcher is able to put up zeroes. Kremer bent a little bit, scattering seven hits and a walk, but he did not allow any runs over 5.2 innings. If he’d been pitching like that some more, we’d all be less grumpy about the 2025 Orioles season.
Notable in this game is that the Orioles offense scored in four different innings, rather than just getting a few runs in one inning and then going to sleep for most of the rest of the game. Ryan O’Hearn (.261) played a large part of the offense, with a 3-3 game that included an eighth inning home run, a walk, and two runs scored.
Game 53
- Result: Orioles beat Cardinals, 5-2
- Record: 19-34
- The biggest play: Dylan Carlson hits three-run home run to give Orioles 5-0 lead in fourth inning (+13%)
- The biggest hero: Charlie Morton (.197 WPA)
Charlie Morton pitched a good game for the Orioles! This is the first time this had happened all season, and also, not coincidentally, is the first time that Morton had pitched in a game that the Orioles won. Two runs allowed in six innings of a close game will give the starting pitcher a solid number in the in probability. O’s pitchers limited the Cardinals to just four hits.
Carlson’s big home run came when the Orioles already led by two runs, so although those three runs proved to be the winning margin, they only provided so much of a boost in WPA. If he can do something to show he is worth keeping around as a bench bat, that would be a nice plus.
This marked the first three-game winning streak of the year for the team.
Game 54
- Result: Orioles lose to Cardinals, 7-4
- Record: 19-35
- The biggest play: Ryan O’Hearn hits three-run home run to give Orioles 4-3 lead in fifth inning
- The biggest goat: Bryan Baker (-.378 WPA)
One of the hallmarks of the 2025 Orioles season has been that once they fall behind, they don’t play as well and they don’t make comebacks happen. Tomoyuki Sugano (-.213) allowed three early runs to put the O’s in the hole, but thanks to O’Hearn’s big homer (.362 WPA for the game), they were able to storm back and even take the lead.
Unfortunately, after that, the bullpen got involved. Keegan Akin (-.211) blew the lead, and then just to make sure nobody would end up feeling good by the Orioles winning four games in a row, Baker gave up three runs while not even pitching a full inning.
Game 55
- Result: Orioles lose to Cardinals, 6-4
- Record: 19-36
- The biggest play: Cade Povich allows two-run home run to Brendan Donovan to put Orioles in 5-4 hole in fifth inning (-21%)
- The biggest goat: Povich (-.393 WPA)
Povich got people excited as he cruised through the Cardinals lineup the first time through the order, then hit rockier terrain the second time and did even worse the third time. Five runs allowed in 4.2 innings, capped by a home run that flips your team’s lead into a deficit, is a bad day on the mound.
Here was another game where the offense could not get it done with RISP: 3-17 hitting meant they missed a lot of chances. It’s particularly egregious that Jackson Holliday (.133 WPA) had three hits as the leadoff hitter – including a double to start the Orioles half of the first inning – and did not score any runs. Neither Adley Rutschman (-.208) nor Gunnar Henderson (-.172) could make anything of those opportunities.
The best Orioles so far
This time last week, the best Orioles hitter by WPA was Ryan O’Hearn (1.53) and the best pitcher was Bryan Baker (0.61). Updated numbers through this week:
- WPA (hitters): O’Hearn (2.30), Cedric Mullins (0.58), Ramón Urías (0.15)
- WPA (pitchers): Seranthony Domínguez (0.61), Baker (0.39), Tomoyuki Sugano (0.33)
- fWAR: O’Hearn (2.0), Gunnar Henderson (1.2), Cedric Mullins (1.1), three pitchers tied at 0.4
One more note on the hitter WPA numbers: There are only four Orioles batters total who have a positive WPA for the season. Along with the top three listed, Dylan Carlson is up to 0.07. It seems bad to regularly have at most two hitters getting big hits.
By bWAR, O’Hearn is leading all Orioles (2.1), with Sugano (1.2) as the top pitcher. Henderson (1.8) is between O’Hearn and Sugano; Ramón Laureano is the only other Oriole above 1 bWAR so far.
The worst Orioles so far
In last week’s update, the worst hitter by WPA was Heston Kjerstad (-1.56) and the worst pitcher was Charlie Morton (-1.86). Here’s how things stand now:
- WPA (hitters): Kjerstad (-2.00), Jorge Mateo (-0.77), Adley Rutschman (-0.74)
- WPA (pitchers): Morton (-1.66), Cade Povich (-0.89), Yennier Cano (-0.61)
- WPA (the fallen): Kyle Gibson (-1.26), Cionel Pérez (-0.34)
- fWAR: Kjerstad (-0.9), Morton (-0.5), several players at -0.4
The now-released Gibson has the worst bWAR of any Orioles player this season (-1.2). Morton’s -1.1 is the worst for active Orioles. Kjerstad is at the bottom for hitters (-1.0).