Cedric Mullins, Austin Hays, and Anthony Santander have been crucial to the Orioles throughout their rebuild and into their current era of success. But the veterans have struggled this season, and times they are a-changing.
The Orioles’ outfield trio of Austin Hays, Cedric Mullins, and Anthony Santander have each had long, accomplished careers in the organization. Mullins and Hays were draft picks that climbed the minor league ladder and turned into homegrown all-stars. Santander was a Rule 5 pick that became one of the game’s better switch hitters. It’s been a great run for all three of them. And now, with the club in honest pursuit of a World Series title, all three of them are struggling at the plate.
Hays has experienced the most extreme scuffling. As of this posting, he owns a .179/.243/.224 batting line and a 34 wRC+. He has also dealt with an IL stint for a calf injury, and it was revealed in mid-April that he was so sick during spring training that he lost 10 pounds and missed a decent chunk of camp as a result.
Since getting off the IL on May 15, the results have been better for Hays. He is 7-for-26 with three doubles, which translates to a .269/.286/.385 line. That is improvement, although still not great. However, his average exit velocity is up four mph as well from a poor 87.1 in April to an above-average 91.4 so far in May. Hays is still searching for that first home run, but there are seeds for growth.
Mullins began the season looking like a power hitter. In the first month, he hit six bombs and although he had a meager .219 batting average he balanced it with a .427 slugging. But May has been tough. He is 8-for-54 with one extra-base hit (a double), two walks, and 19 strikeouts. He owns a .345 OPS this month.
Of course, Mullins is a multi-dimensional player, and he can be extremely valuable even when his bat is lagging. He still has 11 steals (on 13 attempts) this year, and he remains one of the rangiest outfielders in the game. But that does not mean the Orioles are OK with his current work at the plate. Mullins has been starting less this month, often coming in late as a pinch runner or defensive replacement. Perhaps this is just a brief break for Mullins in an attempt to reset him a bit, or maybe it’s something else.
Santander is the one member of the old guard that has not seen his place in the Orioles’ lineup waver much. And that’s because while his output (.201/.284/.425) is below his standard, the reality is that it is not atrocious in the grand scheme of things. He still has a 105 wRC+, and he is third on the team (behind Gunnar Henderson and Adley Rutschman) with nine home runs.
The only number that really jumps out to explain Santander’s modest struggles are his fly ball rates. He is hitting the ball in the air a lot; his 56.4% fly ball rate is by far the highest of his career, and it is the second-highest in all of baseball behind Cody Bellinger (57.1%) this season. That is not necessarily a problem by itself, but he is pairing it with below-average exit velocities (from 90.6 mph last year to 87.2 mph this year). That means a lot of can-of-corn fly outs and fewer doubles than we saw in 2023.
Meanwhile, there is internal pressure to perform. Colton Cowser has cemented himself into the outfield picture. While his white hot April (1.004 OPS) has subsided and a more modest May (.600 OPS) has taken its place, he has still been more productive than Mullins and Hays day-to-day. His Baseball Savant page is full of red numbers, including on defense and the base paths. Oh, to be young! Mullins still feels a bit better in center when it comes to tracking balls down, but there is no doubt that Cowser has the strongest outfield throwing arm on the roster, is a clear upgrade in either corner position, and he might even be the odds on favorite to take the center field job full-time by season’s end.
Not just that, but down in Norfolk there are two outfield bats that could warrant extended looks sometime soon.
Heston Kjerstad has demolished Triple-A pitching to the tune of a .352/.432/.734 line this season. His 91.7 mph average exit velocity trails only Coby Mayo on the Tides roster, and his 48% hard hit rate is second behind only Jackson Holliday. Kjerstad has gotten a taste of big league action this season, but is yet to get two consecutive starts. His defense may not be great, but that sort of production at the plate is tantalizing.
Connor Norby is a name that a contingent of Orioles’ fans have been clamoring for since last summer. He spent all of 2023 in Norfolk, where he hit .290/.359/.483 with a 109 wRC+. He has leveled up this year with a .293/.377/.527 line and 131 wRC+ through 44 games. Norby lacks the huge power upside of Kjerstad, but he offers more positional flexibility as an infield option, the potential to steal a bag, and is right-handed, which could help to balance the lineup a bit.
Ken Rosenthal reported earlier in the month that the Orioles could be interested in a right-handed hitting outfield at the trade deadline. He named Luis Robert Jr. as a potential stretch option and Kevin Pillar as a far less exciting consideration. Either way, wouldn’t it make sense to be sure that your internal options don’t fit the bill first?
And let’s not forget that Kyle Stowers exists. He’s even on the major league roster. Although the Orioles don’t seem interested in giving him much real playing time. The 26-year-old has gotten three starts this season, but more often comes on late as a substitute. They seem more inclined to give Kjerstad a long-term look rather than Stowers, which explains why one is playing everyday in Norfolk while the other is languishing on the bench in Baltimore.
So, where do they go from here? Well, those hoping for a DFA of Hays or any other veteran may be waiting a while. The Orioles tend to push big decisions like that as far into the future as possible, or avoid them altogether. If they really want to give someone like Kjerstad or Norby a long look in Baltimore they would sooner demote Stowers to clear room in Baltimore or lose a fringy reliever to make space on the 40-man roster.
But what does feel clear is that a changing of the guard is happening in Baltimore. Cowser already seems locked into an everyday role somewhere in the outfield moving forward. Extended struggles for Mullins or Hays could make a lengthy audition for Kjerstad undeniable. And with Santander set to hit free agency after this season anyway it is almost guaranteed that the long-predicted shakeup in the Baltimore outfield is on the horizon. And they didn’t even have to trade anyone away to make it happen.