After losing both regular season series to Detroit, the O’s could see the Tigers again in the playoffs. We break down three keys to reversing their fortunes against Detroit.
Two weeks ago, the idea of the Orioles hosting the Detroit Tigers in a best-of-three series would have seemed like an ideal matchup. The Tigers are an incredibly young team with even less playoff experience than the Orioles. However, after the O’s went 2-4 against Detroit in the last 11 days, a potential rematch with the Tigers in October all of a sudden seems like a worrying proposition.
The Orioles currently hold the first wild card, and the Tigers may well push past the Royals for the second wild card. That would put them on a collision course for a best-of-three series in Baltimore. Despite losing both series against Detroit, there are still pros and cons to facing off with the red-hot Tigers in the postseason.
Undoubtedly, it would be a matchup of two teams trending in very different directions. After all, Baltimore was 20 games over .500 at the All-Star break, while Detroit was three games under. Just over two months later, the Tigers are within four games of the O’s. Being the “hot team” is always the position you want to be in heading into October—and no one would mistake this Orioles team for hot.
However, it’s not often that you get six games against a potential first-round opponent just weeks before the start of playoff baseball. Having that air of familiarity could help the Orioles better game plan for their next matchup after A.J. Hinch seemed to outfox Brandon Hyde across the two regular season series.
With October just around the corner, now is the time for the O’s to start preparing for how they’re going improve on last year’s disheartening early exit at the hands of Texas. With that in mind, let’s take a look at the keys to overcoming Detroit in a potential playoff matchup.
Win the Burnes vs. Skubal matchup
If it does end up being Baltimore vs. Detroit in the Wild Card round, baseball fans will be treated to a matchup between the two best pitchers in the American League. After Burnes dominated the Tigers in his two starts, it feels like this matchup might lean toward the O’s.
The Orioles’ ace put up back-to-back outings of seven scoreless innings against Detroit while allowing only one extra-base hit and striking out 15. The two dominant outings extend Burnes’ history of domination against Detroit, as the Tigers franchise has scored only two runs in 29 innings against the former Cy Young winner, putting up a measly .134 average across five appearances.
Working in the Tigers’ favor is the fact that the Orioles didn’t face the presumptive AL Cy Young winner, Skubal, in either of their recent series. The dominant southpaw last faced the O’s back in 2022, when he pitched six scoreless innings while racking up 11 Ks in a 5-1 Tigers win.
Skubal has evolved as a pitcher since then, changing his arsenal from focusing on a slider-fastball combo to his current mix that relies much more on his changeup and sinker. Skubal’s current approach might favor the O’s; Ramón Urías, Ryan Mountcastle and Anthony Santander all hit changeups well, while Urías and Adley Rutschman both crush sinkers.
That being said, the prospect of facing Skubal for the first time is daunting. Pitchers usually have the advantage when facing a hitter for the very first time. The Orioles also won’t have the luxury of taking their time to figure Skubal out when every AB in the postseason is packed with pressure. However, if the O’s can scratch out a run or two off the Tigers ace, that might be enough for Burnes to lead them to a crucial Game 1 victory.
Win the HR battle
The Orioles are a team built to live and die by the long ball. Nothing was more illustrative of that than the recent series against the Tigers in Camden Yards. In Game 1, the O’s hit five home runs and blew out Detroit, 7-1. For the rest of the series, Baltimore got only one home run from Cedric Mullins as they dropped the final two games.
Despite the home run drought in the final two games at the Yard, you’d expect that the Orioles would have a power advantage against the Tigers. After all, the O’s are tied for second in all of baseball with 225 HRs this season. Meanwhile, the kitties from the Motor City are a below-average power team, ranking 25th in MLB with 159 long balls.
That power disparity did not play out in the six matchups between Baltimore and Detroit. The Orioles did out-homer the Tigers eight to six overall, but Detroit out-homered the O’s in three of the six games—all Tiger wins. Baltimore particularly struggled against Detroit’s left-handed sluggers, with Kerry Carpenter and Riley Greene combining for five of the Tigers’ six long balls.
As Camden Chat’s Tyler Young alluded to yesterday, the O’s offense might rediscover their long-ball form with the return of Urías, Mountcastle and Jordan Westburg. What they can’t do is continue to allow the Tigers to beat them at their own game. For Burnes, limiting the long balls shouldn’t be a problem, as he’s given up less than one HR/9 at Camden Yards. Projected Game 2 and 3 starters Zach Eflin and Dean Kremer are different stories, as both have a HR rate close to 2.0 HR/9 in Baltimore. The bullpen will also need to lock in on preventing long balls, as they have the 8th worst HR/9 rate in the MLB since the beginning of August.
Get better production vs. LHPs
Despite not facing Skubal in any of the six games vs. Detroit, the O’s still struggled against the Tigers southpaws. The trio of Tyler Holton, Brant Hurter and Sean Guenther combined for 17.2 innings while posting a 1.53 and holding the Orioles lineup to a .226 average. Swings and misses were a big problem against Detroit’s left-handed pitchers, as Orioles hitters posted a 32% strikeout rate against Holton, Hurter and Guenther.
Often it felt like Hinch forced Baltimore into bad matchups by opening the game with a right-handed pitcher before countering with a left-handed longman out of the bullpen. The return of Urías and Westburg should make the Orioles’ lineup less matchup-dependent. Given how each of the infielders was hitting before going out injured, you’d expect both of them to start against both right-handers and left-handers.
The contingent of Urías, Westburg, and Mountcastle along with Santander and Rutschman provides the Orioles with the personnel they need to dominate opposing southpaws. If Baltimore is going to win a playoff series against the Tigers, the O’s will need them to find a collective measure of consistency that’s often missing from this Orioles lineup.