The Orioles injury-riddled starting rotation has been a disaster, and a strong bullpen cannot offset the shortcomings.
It’s been a long time since the Orioles featured a dominant starting rotation. Baltimore’s last two division winners (2014, 2023) both possessed units capable of delivering quality starts, but neither bunch struck fear into its opponent.
The Orioles current rotation isn’t scaring anyone right now. The group, already without Kyle Bradish and Tyler Wells, lost its top two pitchers before the middle of April. Now, without Zach Eflin and Grayson Rodriguez, Baltimore has no idea what to expect on a nightly basis.
Dean Kremer and Charlie Morton have both disappointed early in the season. Tomoyuki Sugano has yet to inspire confidence that he can routinely retire big league hitters, and Cade Povich still needs some polish. Baltimore’s depth has been decimated by injuries with Albert Suárez, Trevor Rogers, and Chayce McDermott all ruled out as immediate reinforcements.
Brandon Young could make his major league debut this weekend. The Birds are starved for some positive momentum on the mound, and Young made significant progress at Triple-A dating back to last season. Any bit helps with a rotation this down in the dumps, but Young’s arrival will not significantly alter the current state. Kyle Gibson probably can’t save this bunch either.
The 2014 and 2023 teams possessed dominant bullpens that were capable of keeping the opponent off the scoreboard for three or four innings. Fortunately, early returns on this year’s bullpen are quite favorable. Could the Orioles ride the same strategy this year?
For argument’s sake, let’s assume Seranthony Domínguez and Gregory Soto pitch to their potential for the duration of the season. Yennier Cano and Keegan Akin have a solid track record, Bryan Baker suddenly looks like a difference maker, and everyone not named Cionel Pérez has pitched well so far.
Félix Bautista is the ultimate difference maker. The former All Star returned after missing all of 2024 recovering from Tommy John surgery. Unfortunately, Baltimore’s disappointing start has not yielded many save opportunities for The Mountain.
The lack of late-inning drama has mostly kept Bautista’s early season limitations out of the spotlight, but Sunday’s extra-inning defeat brought the conversation front row center. The Orioles are not asking Bautista to pitch multiple innings or work consecutive days until further notice.
Bautista’s restrictions really prevent Baltimore from carving out a late-inning template or a clearly defined pecking order. It feels unnecessary to name a “backup closer,” but the current picture is cloudier than “O’Day, Miller, Britton.”
The Baltimore bullpen is essentially operating with one hand tied behind its back. Nobody can blame the Orioles for easing Bautista back into things, but the current circumstances will prevent the bullpen from becoming a truly dominant unit, and the Orioles need something special to offset their rotation woes.
There’s really no reason to believe a Baltimore starter will deliver more than five innings right now. Even if the bats do their part, the opponent will likely post a crooked number within that span. A winning recipe would require four relief pitchers to work within a small margin of error on a nightly basis. That’s simply not sustainable for any team.
The 2014 rotation featured Chris Tillman (3.34 ERA), Wei-Yin Chen (3.54 ERA), Miguel González (3.24 ERA), Bud Norris (3.65 ERA) and Kevin Gausman (3.57 ERA). The 2023 squad received a dominant season from Bradish (2.83 ERA), a nice year from Wells (3.64 ERA) and decent years from Kremer, Rodriguez and Gibson.
The Orioles still hold aspirations of winning the AL East, and there’s plenty of factors that could turn in the team’s favor as the temperature rises. Gunnar Henderson should get going, Colton Cowser will return, and Andrew Kittredge could bolster an already strong relief unit.
But at the end of the day, it’s hard to see this team excelling unless Eflin, Rodriguez and Bradish are taking the ball every fifth day. That level of rotation, paired with a strong bullpen, could make a run in October—if the team hasn’t fallen too far out of contention by then.