Some of the deadline moves have worked out, others haven’t. The Orioles’ postseason hopes may hinge on whether or not they can sort out the bullpen by October.
One of Mike Elias’ top objectives during last month’s trade deadline was to improve the Orioles’ bullpen. While the big, franchise-altering move never came, Elias was certainly busy. The additions of Sernathony Domínguez and Gregory Soto were meant to directly address the middle innings, while bringing on starters Zach Eflin and Trevor Rogers helped the organization’s pitching depth as a whole, including the bullpen.
Just two weeks on from many of those moves, the jury is still out on whether or not the bullpen will be any better. However, the early results have not been encouraging.
Since July 26 (the day of the Domínguez addition), the Orioles are 29th in reliever ERA (6.26), 22nd in FIP (4.85), 23rd in xFIP (4.53), and 26th in home runs per nine innings (1.81). That’s not what you want.
Soto has had a particularly rough introduction to Birdland. Over just 2.1 innings, the southpaw has a 30.86 ERA (not a typo) and is walking 11.57 per nine (again, not a typo!). The incredibly small sample size makes the numbers look cartoonish, but it does paint an accurate picture of how horrible those few appearances have felt to watch.
Soto isn’t alone in his struggles. Cionel Pérez is walking and striking out batters at the same pace (4.76 per nine innings), Keegan Akin can’t keep the ball in the park, and the once-dependable Jacob Webb was lagging prior to being placed on the IL with elbow discomfort.
Craig Kimbrel has been notably poor as well. The team’s supposed “closer” has not earned a save since July 7, and manager Brandon Hyde has not used him any later than the eighth inning since July 29. Kimbrel’s poor performance (one inning, one run, three walks) in Sunday’s 2-1 loss to the Rays won’t do much to change his trajectory. A re-shuffling of roles could be happening, or perhaps a brief, concerted effort to “protect” Kimbrel while he sorts things out.
The only Orioles pitchers to record saves this month are Domínguez (one) and Yennier Cano (two). Domínguez has arguably been the team’s best reliever since being acquired. Across eight innings he has a 1.13 ERA, 10.13 strikeouts per nine, and 2.25 walks per nine. Cano has had some bad batted ball luck (.381 BABIP since July 26), but has otherwise been quite good, and at this point feels like the most proven commodity in the unit.
Burch Smith has been a crucial under-the-radar addition. Added on a minor league deal at the end of June, the 34-year-old has been a revelation. Over 12 appearances Smith has a 2.84 ERA with the O’s, a product of his 31.33% strikeout rate and minuscule 4.2% walk rate. The walks have ticked up in August, but many of Smith’s peripherals remain impressive. He should be an arm the Orioles can count on the rest of the way. Good enough to be your go-to in high-leverage situations? The O’s may not have a choice.
The situation the Orioles find themselves in is no surprise. Kimbrel is no longer the lockdown arm that he was early in his career. He is still competent, but the drop off from Félix Bautista has been as extreme as expected. The rest of the unit is duct-taped together with arms that greatly oscillate in performance. That isn’t exactly rare in MLB, but it is a weakness that opponents can expose.
Elias is surely aware of this. He knew the bullpen needed to be better, and so he made trades. But those trades were on the margins rather than being seismic changes, and so far there is little reason to think this version of the bullpen is better in any demonstrable way than it was earlier in the season.
Now, that does not mean things won’t work out by season’s end. Relievers may be the most volatile thing in professional sports. Domínguez has looked good so far, and once upon a time was an impact reliever in Philly. Soto could still reclaim his former glory as well. There are enough intriguing pieces here to make things work. But this is an approach with sizable variance, and it relies more on hope than you might like.
Thankfully, once the postseason arrives, the makeup of the bullpen will change. Danny Coulombe and Webb should both be healthy, which would improve Hyde’s options against left-handed batters. That might keep Soto off the roster completely. A starter might get pushed to the ‘pen when Grayson Rodriguez is back, again helping the depth. And the baked in off-days of October will allow Hyde to stick with the hot hand rather than distributing the workload to keep everyone fresh. It’s almost a different sport at that point.
Despite what has clearly been an uneven “second half,” the Orioles may still be the best team in baseball. Barring a catastrophic collapse, they will be going to the postseason with hopes of a deep run. The bullpen will play a crucial role, one way or another.
Over the next month-and-a-half there may be nothing more important than the Orioles sorting out that bullpen. They need clarity in the closer role. They need to peek in the minors to see if there are any viable options down there. They need to head into October with more confidence in the late innings than they have right now.
It’s a work in progress, as it has been all season long. That’s fine as long as everything falls into place by the time that first postseason series rolls around.