Last year, the lefty was basically the rock in a bullpen that went through a lot of shocks. Can he do it again?
Man, it was only 2017, but it feels like a lifetime ago that Keegan Akin was a top O’s prospect (No. 6)—as a starting pitcher. Steer our time-traveling craft back to those days, and you’ll find MLB Pipeline touting the Western Michigan alum as “one of the hardest-throwing lefty starters in his class,” equipped with a 91-94 mph fastball, an above-average slider, and an average changeup. He profiled, they thought, as “a No. 3 or 4 starter at maturity.”
Considering that list also included Chance Sisco, Cody Sedlock, Chris Lee, and Jomar Reyes, the return on investment could have been worse! Akin did not become an MLB starter, nor has he been an All-Star. But last year, arguably, he was the rock of the Orioles bullpen, and he got his deserved kudos, at least from us here at Camden Chat.
Akin was extremely solid in 2024, posting a 3.32 ERA/2.99 FIP and 113 ERA+ in 66 games. Impressively, he hit a career high in strikeouts as a relief pitcher, with 97 K’s in 78.2 innings, good for an 11.1 rate. He kept his walk rate to a manageable 2.2 per nine innings, too. He also topped the 99th percentile, according to BaseballSavant, in expected ERA and expected batting average—the swings and quality of contact against him were bad, in other words. And Akin himself was very good.
Akin did this while performing a difficult Swiss Army knife role as the Orioles fumbled around looking for help at closer. Recall, the Orioles were missing Félix Bautista for all of last year, Yennier Cano went through bouts of ineffectiveness, and Craig Kimbrel generally turned into a pumpkin in the back half of the season. Akin led the bullpen in innings pitched (78.2), while making 25 appearances in the seventh inning, 24 in the eighth, and fully 14 in the closer spot.
Zooming out to the career level, over five seasons, Akin been good in really two of them: last year and 2022, when he put up a 3.20 ERA/3.59 FIP and 122 ERA+ in 45 games. He was flawed in 2021 as a starter, finishing 2-10 with a 6.63 ERA (ouch) and also in 2023, when he was hurt, posting a 6.85 ERA in 24 games.
The data doesn’t lie, people: Akin can’t pitch in odd years. #analysis
Fortunately, that would be a stupid rule to apply in a baseball projection, and FanGraphs isn’t a stupid publication. In fact, they’re actually pretty optimistic about Akin’s prospects this year.
FanGraph’s ZIPS has Akin projected to finish tenth among Orioles pitchers with 0.9 WAR in 50 games in 2025. That WAR total would put him behind swingman types like Cade Povich, Trevor Rodgers and newcomer Brandon Young, but among pure relievers, the Orioles’ second-most valuable arm after Félix Bautista.
The rest of his projected stats are as follows:
70.0 IP, 10.41 K/9, 2.31 BB/9, 1.16 HR/9, 3.47 ERA, 3.34 FIP
This sounds pretty Akin-like, consistent with his good years, out of line with his bad ones. The totals are all about in line with what he put up last year, rightly considered a success. Akin’s ERA was a shade lower than this projection (3.32), he pitched a few more innings than they expect (78.2 to 70), and his walks were lower (2.17 versus a predicted 2.31), his FIP was better (2.99 versus 3.34).
The case for the over
I told you: he can’t pitch in odd years! JK, let’s try a little harder. Akin’s strikeout rate increased across the board for all three of his pitches, but especially for his ruthless slider, which posted a 35.7% whiff rate, as he upped the spin rate significantly on the pitch. Can he sustain this? If the whiff rates were a mirage, then his numbers will look worse.
There’s also injury luck, too. Akin had good health last year, but in 2021 he had a groin injury and a back injury in 2023. His health of course could turn.
We don’t have quite enough data on the lefty to know what “the real Akin” looks like. Between the injury-marred years and the very good ones, the truth could be in the middle?
The case for the under
Not every prediction is right just because it’s “in the middle.” Akin might be hitting his stride.
Besides, as noted before, he had to deal with considerable instability around him in ’24, what with injuries and ineffectiveness plaguing the Orioles staff all year, from starters to relievers. Brandon Hyde loves to preach—if not always to practice—the virtues of consistent roles in the bullpen. Things happen, especially to pitchers. But if the bullpen roles are more fixed in 2025, it’s possible Akin will post a second consecutive strong season.
Akin may not have turned into a hotshot starting pitcher. But he was the anchor of the Orioles bullpen last year, and if he’s close to equalizing those totals in 2025, he’ll do it again.