The Orioles aren’t the first team to lose a pitcher like Corbin Burnes. In fact, they aren’t the first team to lose Corbin Burnes.
The offseason narrative in Baltimore had some wrinkles to it. The Orioles made a significant payroll increase while still allowing their two high profile free agents to walk. The Birds attempted to compensate for the loss of Anthony Santander with Tyler O’Neill and Heston Kjerstad, but the front office failed to replace Corbin Burnes.
The loss of Burnes could plague the Orioles throughout the season and into the playoffs, but only if the rotation struggles. Zach Eflin and Grayson Rodriguez have the stuff to lead a pitching staff, and the Orioles have several other starters capable of delivering above-average seasons.
It’s never easy to replace a guy like Burnes, but the loss feels more significant due to Baltimore’s lack of pitching talent in the 21st century. Aces are hard to come by, and the Orioles have not shelled out the required coin to land a top arm on the free agent market. That’s life in a salary-cap free league, but it’s a reality that new owner David Rubenstein hopes to change in multiple facets.
Nevertheless, the Orioles were not the first contender to lose a player like Burnes. In fact, they weren’t even the first contender to lose Burnes. The Brewers moved on from Burnes after six seasons and three consecutive All Star appearances in Milwaukee.
Burnes finished 2023 with a 3.39 ERA and a 1.069 WHIP over 32 starts, and the Brewers won the NL Central with a 92-70 record. Unfortunately, the Brewers suffered an early postseason defeat. Burnes allowed four runs in four innings against Arizona, and the Diamondbacks swept Milwaukee 2-0 in the first round of the playoffs.
We all know what happened next. The Brewers shipped Burnes to Baltimore for DL Hall, Joey Ortiz and a competitive balance draft pick. How did the Brewers handle the loss of their homegrown ace? The team won another division title with a 93-69 record.
The Brewers managed to find a way to finish fifth in baseball with a 3.65 team ERA last season. Aaron Civale, Tobias Myers, Freddy Peralta, and Colin Rea led the team back to the postseason where the club ultimately fell to the New York Mets.
The Orioles now find themselves a year removed from a division crown in the more challenging AL East, but there’s some comfort knowing that another team continued to compete without Burnes. In addition, Baltimore’s front office quietly positioned the club to compete without a true ace.
Both Eflin and Rodriguez have the talent to lead a team on a postseason charge, but the Birds need more than that to be successful. Free agent signing Charlie Morton can immediately fill the veteran void. Young pitchers like Chayce McDermott have already expressed a desire to learn from the 41-year-old, and Morton possesses the postseason experience this club continues to need.
While McDermott and Cade Povich look to break through at the major league level, guys like Dean Kremer and Albert Suárez should provide steady depth. Trevor Rogers still holds upside, and the Orioles made a low risk, high reward signing of an international star.
Tomoyuki Sugano will make his MLB debut at age 35. Sugano, one of the best Japanese pitchers of the last decade, immediately announced his desire to win a World Championship with the Orioles. Sugano boasts pinpoint control and a complete understanding of the strike zone.
Sugano will look to adjust to facing MLB talent and taking the ball every fifth day. However, Baltimore’s pitching depth should allow everyone a chance to catch their breath or recover from any potential injuries.
The Orioles expect to return both Kyle Bradish and Tyler Wells at some point this season. Bradish finished fourth in the AL Cy Young voting in 2023 before missing the majority of last season, and Wells has thrived in multiple roles. Brandon Young might pop up at some point, and Baltimore could always add more arms at the deadline.
The O’s suffered several devastating pitching injuries last season, and 12 players made at least one start. However, McDermott and Matt Bowman were limited to only one outing. Bradish, Wells and John Means were all finished early, and Rogers made only four starts before a demotion to Triple-A.
The Brewers had 16 pitchers make at least one start last season. In addition to the four mentioned above, Frankie Montas (11) and Joe Ross (10) both reached double digit starts. Swingman Bryse Wilson made nine starts while eclipsing 100 innings, and our old pal Hall made seven starts before finishing the season in the bullpen.
The Orioles hope to have five healthy players cement their place in the rotation, but that’s just not what happens in a 162-game season. Baltimore, similar to Milwaukee last season, has the pitching depth to navigate uncertainty, replace an inning-eating ace like Burnes, and compete for another division crown in 2025.