Home runs have dried up, and the lineup isn’t as deep as it used to be. But the Orioles could still win games if they make adjustments.
It’s a trope in professional sports that postseason teams should resist the urge to reinvent themselves during the playoffs, and instead “stick to what got them this far.” Lean into your strengths and hope that it’s good enough to overcome your apparent weaknesses.
That seems to have been the Orioles plan for the last 2-3 months. There was no need to panic. There was plenty of time left in the regular season to sort things out. The talent would show through, and this team would get back on track. But it just is not happening.
The Orioles lost again on Sunday. It was their fifth straight series loss and is the latest in a three-month slide that has seen them go 37-45 and tumble almost entirely out of contention for the AL East crown.
While a spot in the postseason remains almost a guarantee, the team has been unable to officially clinch. A fitting way for them to finally punch their ticket to October would be with the Astros beating the Mariners on Monday while the O’s are idle for the day. No locker room celebration. No satisfaction.
Despite sleepwalking through the second half of the year, this team will still go to the playoffs because they were so darn good through mid-June. But the team we see before us right now is fundamentally different from the one that was on a 110-win pace back in the early summer. That has been evident on the field for some time now, and it should alter the way in which they approach the games in front of them.
During the first half of the year, the Orioles won with power. Through June 15 they led MLB in home runs (110) and slugging percentage (.449). That hid some holes in their game, specifically their high strikeout rate (21.5%), low walk rate (7.1%), and the modest on-base percentage (.309) that resulted.
Since June 15, the power has still been there, but just a touch worse than before. They are seventh in home runs (115) and ninth in slugging percentage (.421). They did see improvement in their walk rate (8.7%), but their strikeouts got even worse (22.4%), and they fell to 12th in MLB in runs scored.
In September, things have gotten dire. The Orioles are 22nd in runs scored this month. But the math on that doesn’t make total sense. They are 14th in on-base (.306), 14th in wRC+ (95), fifth in walk rate (9.7%), and 17th in strikeout rate (24.2%). While those peripheral numbers don’t paint the picture of a dominant offense, it should be one that is slightly more productive than what we have seen to this point in September. So, what’s happening?
Would you believe the Orioles have been unlucky? It’s true, at least a little bit. So far this month, the Orioles have a .276 batting average on balls in play. That is 22nd in the league. They are experiencing that despite posting the fourth-best hard-hit rate in the league and the lowest soft-hit rate. You would expect that combination to lead to better outcomes on balls in play, but alas it has not.
However, another angle of this is that while the Orioles are hitting the ball hard, they are not behaving like a power-hitting team. Instead, they are loading up on ground balls. Their 46% ground ball rate this month is third in MLB, behind the Nationals and Marlins. Meanwhile, they are sixth-worst in fly ball rate and fourth-worst in line drive rate. So it’s no wonder that both their power and overall run production have been muted.
Some fans will point out that the Orioles have been particularly bad with runners in scoring position. That is true. In September they have a .206 batting average with runners in scoring position (25th in MLB), which is 20 points worse than their overall batting average for the month. But neither number is particularly good. The problem is not only with runners on base. It is at all times.
This weekend they did get reinforcements in the form of Jordan Westburg and Ramón Urías. Ryan Mountcastle could be right behind them. That trio will certainly help, but the fact is that there is no magic bullet to make the Orioles productive again. They are already getting MVP-type production from Gunnar Henderson, Cedric Mullins has rediscovered his form, and Colton Cowser has been solid for a while now. It still hasn’t been good enough.
The Orioles are still chasing what they were back in early June. It’s possible that that level or style of production is simply unattainable for this group at this point. Should they continue to bang their head against the wall and hope for better? Or do they alter their approach in any way?
They could think about running more. Their 13 stolen bases this month are 19th in MLB, in line with the rate at which they have stolen bases all season long. Getting runners in motion pairs well with high ground ball rates as it gets fielders out of position and often keeps you out of a double play. Going first-to-third on a single can be just as cool as a home run!
Or they could do the unthinkable and sacrifice from time to time. Sure, it’s conservative and boring, but for a team that consistently struggles to score more than three runs in a game, it could help. The Orioles have zero sacrifice bunts in September and only six all season, the second-least in MLB.
Ideally, none of this would matter. The Orioles offense would be playing at a level where you say “Let’s do our thing and see how it goes.” But that isn’t the case right now. They are struggling throughout the order and it has become too easy for opposing pitchers to slice through the lineup.
Fortunately, the pitching staff has been so much better recently that it doesn’t feel like the Orioles have to out-bang the other team. They can win games 5-3 instead of 10-8, which opens up more strategic options for Brandon Hyde and his staff. Whether they opt for a different approach or not is unclear.