If the Mountain looks like the dominant closer of old, the O’s will party like it’s 2023. If he doesn’t, things could get really dicey.
It seems strange to think that any team’s season could hinge substantially on their closer. I mean, the guy doesn’t play in the first 8/9ths of the game. For him to even have a chance to pitch in a big spot, a whole lot of things have to go right, long before he shows up. A closer is almost never a team’s most pivotal player.
That said…it sure feels like Félix Bautista could make or break the 2025 Orioles.
The impact that the Mountain had on the Birds two years ago, en route to winning AL Reliever of the Year, was undeniable. Bautista put up a herculean effort, posting 33 saves, a 1.48 ERA, and a ridiculous 16.2 K/9 before his season came to a premature end in late August. He not only locked down the ninth, but on multiple occasions he worked two innings, helping the O’s steal some road wins in extras. When the Birds were ahead or tied in the late innings and Bautista was available, Orioles fans could always feel good about their chances.
Last year, without Bautista’s services as he recovered from Tommy John surgery, finishing off games became a lot dicier for the Orioles. They tried Craig Kimbrel until Father Time took him out of commission, then rotated through Yennier Cano and Seranthony Dominguez, with inconsistent results. The loss of Bautista wasn’t the only reason the O’s fell from 101 to 91 wins last year, but it sure didn’t help.
Now the Mountain is back, and — with all due respect to Tyler O’Neill, Charlie Morton, and Tomoyuki Sugano — he’s the most impactful addition to the 2025 Orioles. He is also, though, one of the biggest wild cards. Exactly what version of Félix Bautista are we going to see? There’s often an adjustment process for pitchers coming back from Tommy John as they work their way back to their previous velocity and command. We’ve seen that in spring training with Bautista, whose fastball hasn’t yet reached the triple-digit mark he hit so often in 2023.
Bautista’s presence changes the entire complexion of the bullpen. You can live with the likes of Cano, Dominguez, Gregory Soto, and Keegan Akin as seventh- or eighth-inning guys when you know you’ve got Félix to lock it down in the end. But if he has a health setback and you’ve got to sift through that group for a replacement closer, the Birds’ relief crew falls from solid to scattershot in a hurry.
Nothing is more demoralizing for a team than working hard for eight innings to build up a lead, only to blow it in the ninth. When Bautista is available, fans rarely have to worry. Without him, well, look out.
No pressure, big fella. But we really, really need you to be good. And if you could be the lights-out, dominant Félix Bautista of old, even better.
ZiPS projections: 50 G, 52.2 IP, 26 SV, 2.56 ERA, 12.5 K/9
The case for the over
With a full, healthy season, 26 saves seems like an easily reachable goal for Bautista if he’s back to his former self. He had 33 in 2023 despite missing the entire month of September. The year before, he had 15 saves even though he wasn’t the closer until August. Assuming the Orioles have a similarly successful year as the previous three, they’ll carry plenty of leads into the ninth inning and will have plenty of save opportunities for a closer who almost always locks them down.
The case for the under
Even if the Orioles do have plenty of ninth-inning leads, it won’t always be Bautista who gets the call. The O’s have stated that they’re going to be very careful with Félix in his return, and early on he might not pitch on back-to-back days. It’s possible he won’t even be on the Opening Day roster as he continues to build up, as Brandon Hyde acknowledged yesterday. Even if he is, there’s always the unsettling but very real possibility that Bautista could suffer a setback or another health issue during the season that lands him back on the IL, which could put the 26-save mark out of reach.