It won’t exactly be straightforward, but the Orioles can take many paths to strengthening their relief group.
The Orioles have a fine bullpen. The group is third in the AL in fWAR (2.7) and fourth in FIP (3.70). They have one of the league’s better closers in Craig Kimbrel, a 36-year-old Hall-of-Fame hopeful that has rediscovered his glory in Baltimore. And the organization has a knack for spinning up steady relief arms out of nowhere. There’s a lot to like. But besides Kimbrel—especially with Danny Coulombe on the IL—things can often feel shaky in the late innings for the O’s. Solidifying that area of the team should be the front office’s top priority this month.
Depth is a strength of this Orioles team. That includes the bullpen. But unlike the lineup, where that depth represents an abundance of all-star quality bats that could start on most teams in the league, the bullpen’s options are less exciting.
Instead, the O’s simply have a whole bunch of decent, major league quality pitchers. Jacob Webb was a nice find off the scrap heap last summer and currently owns a 2.98 FIP this season. Cionel Pérez, another waiver claim, is in this third season with the Birds and still going strong. Yennier Cano was an afterthought in the Jorgé López trade two years ago, but is now a former all-star serving as the team’s set-up man. These guys are good. They just aren’t lockdown arms that you trust implicitly come October.
This is not an earth-shattering take, of course. It’s reality, something that Mike Elias and his lieutenants are well aware of. These Orioles have has good a chance as anybody to win the World Series. Heck, they might even be the favorites. They can’t let a bullpen with clear weaknesses be their downfall.
So, how do they do it?
It is almost a guarantee that the Orioles will be busy at this year’s trade deadline. Although we said that a season ago as well, and they ended up with Shintaro Fujinami and a version of Jack Flaherty that is far less than what he is today. A repeat in 2024 would be a disappointment.
The problem with this year’s deadline is that very few teams are “out” of the playoff race. As of this writing, the only clubs with no real shot at a postseason run are the White Sox, Athletics, Marlins, Rockies, Angels, and probably the Blue Jays. Six sellers and a league of buyers is tough to navigate.
Now, some of those teams that look like buyers right now will fade between now and the deadline. Others will take an honest look in the mirror—like the 2022 Orioles—and trade off some pieces despite the mathematical possibilities of making the postseason telling them otherwise. But even if that number creeps up to double digits, it might still be an expensive and limited market.
But the Orioles should still be shopping. They have the pieces to land any arm they want, although the cost of someone like a Mason Miller does not seem like something they will do. Instead, the rental market could make more sense, where they can add Tanner Scott or Kirby Yates. If they want some years of control then Michael Kopech or Tyler Rogers could make sense.
There are plenty of other bullpen arms in consideration of being moved by their respective teams. The Athletic has a good list that includes pretty much every intriguing relief arm on the various mediocre to bad teams in the league, so it’s tough to nail down specific names that fit the Orioles. In all likelihood, they will weigh total value rather than narrowing their list of targets too much.
The other thing that is relevant at the deadline is how the Orioles address their starting rotation. The duo of Corbin Burnes and Grayson Rodriguez feels plenty good enough for a postseason team, but the options beyond them are less of a guarantee. Elias probably wants to upgrade the middle of the his rotation at least, and he might even go after a big fish. In either event, adding an arm to the rotation would, in turn, improve the bullpen.
Any one of Dean Kremer, Albert Suárez, or Cade Povich could be bumped to the ‘pen if another starter enters the picture. Suárez, in particular, feels like he would be an upgrade for the relief corps. His skillset fits in late innings, and he has done well out of the bullpen this season. But he has been so effective in the rotation that the Orioles cannot risk moving him yet.
Should the Orioles make a move, it seems there are a few tiers of prospects to trade: the top-tier, the fringe, and the depth.
Jackson Holliday is the absolute top prospect in the system, and he appears untouchable, although everyone has a price. Samuel Basallo and Coby Mayo could go if the return is massive (Tarik Skubal or Garrett Crochet are probably the only candidates there). Everyone else seems to be, more of less, available.
Connor Norby has no real fit on the big league roster. He is the current day version of Joey Ortiz, who eventually got moved for Burnes. Norby is not as highly regarded as Ortiz was, but he should still fetch a decent return in the form of a mid-tier starter or reliever. Kyle Stowers is an older version of the same thing, although he would be worth a touch less in a deal. To be honest, most of the names on the Orioles “Top 30” list would fit here.
The other area to look for trade candidates within the Orioles organization is to see who will be Rule 5 eligible in December. At that time the O’s will either have to add them to the 40-man roster or risk losing them in the Rule 5 draft. If they team does not intend to protect them, it makes sense to see if someone else would take them on now. Mayo is one of these players, but he will certainly be added to the 40-man in December if not sooner.
Some interesting names in this category: Billy Cook, Donta’ Williams, Chayce McDermott, Carlos Tavera, Justin Armbruester, John Rhodes, and Alex Pham. The O’s will not have room for all of them in December, so expect some of them to go at the deadline.
Speaking of McDermott, he, along with Seth Johnson in Double-A, represents one final avenue for the Orioles to explore bullpen upgrades. It is common for young pitchers to debut in the bullpen, regardless of how bring their parent organization may believe their future to be in the rotation. That could be the situation here.
McDermott has 13.07 strikeouts per nine innings this year. His 5.40 walks per nine isn’t great, but maybe it would improve in shorter stints. He is a name that will be added to the 40-man in December if he is still in the organization, so why not see how he can help the bullpen now?
Johnson is already on the 40-man. His career has been up-ended by injuries, which has delayed his development and explains why he is a talented 25-year-old still in Double-A. Walks are an issue for him (5.88 walks per nine), and he struggles to go deep into games. He sounds like a reliever-in-waiting, so it could be time to make the transition.
There are many ways for the Orioles to strengthen their bullpen. What they will actually do is unclear, although it will probably be a combination of options mentioned above. Building a major league bullpen is an inexact science, and sometimes it looks like a lot like throwing things at the wall and seeing what sticks. The Orioles owe it to themselves to throw as mnay things against the wall as they can to ensure that their relievers can match up with the rest of a deeply talented roster.