It was never part of the plan for Irvin to be a rotation fixture for half of a season.
Don’t cry because it’s over, smile because it happened. It’s the sort of unhelpful advice that applies to both high school graduation and, apparently, the era of Cole Irvin as an effective big league starter.
Irvin got knocked around yet again on Sunday night, coughing up five runs over 3.2 innings to the Texas Rangers. It was his third straight outing in which he threw fewer than five innings. During that time he has allowed 18 runs (14 earned) over 12.1 innings while striking out five, walking four, and allowing four home runs. He has seen his season-long ERA rise from 2.87 heading into June 13 to 4.13 at the end of the month.
This is not the first tough stretch of the season for Irvin. His first three starts of the year were pretty bad too, as he allowed 11 runs (all earned) on 20 hits, five walks, and 11 strikeouts over 14.2 innings
In between these two dips in form, Irvin was a savior of sorts for the Orioles’ rotation. From April 21 through June 7, the southpaw tossed 48 innings and allowed just nine earned runs. He struck out 32, walked seven, and allowed only four homers. Opponents OPS’d .615 against him and he had an ERA of 1.69 and a FIP of 3.41.
That run of performances came at a crucial time for the Orioles. They needed someone to eat innings while the team dealt with a rash of pitching injuries. Irvin stepped up and, although he may have been pitching over his head for a portion of that time, it’s not as if he entirely lucked into his success.
In May, Irvin had a whiff rate of 21.1% and his typically solid walk rate of just 4.5%. These are both good, competitive numbers. He also had a lower-than-expected BABIP of .246. In a way, that explains the discrepancy between his 2.01 ERA and 3.25 FIP. He was pitching well, but not quite as well as his top-line stats might indicate.
In June, all of that came crashing down. He actually walked hitters at a lower rate (4.2%), but they stopped whiffing (16.8%) and the contact they made was extremely hard (47% hard hit rate). After allowing four home runs through the season’s first two months, Irvin allowed six this past month. It was ugly.
Irvin lives on the thin line that separates a starter from a swingman. He has a starter’s repertoire, possessing a handful of offerings capable of getting out big league hitters. But none of the individual pitches standout, a reality that is exploited as the game goes on and hitters face Irvin multiple times. This fact is not unique to Irvin, but when hitters have a .936 OPS against you in the third time through the order, you are basically non-viable at that juncture of the game.
This is not news to anyone. The 2024 Orioles were not built around the plan of having Irvin take the ball every fifth day. He was supposed to be a long-man/swingman that could gobble up innings, make a few spot starts, and keep blow outs from getting out of hand. That is the role he took on in the second half of 2023, and it went quite well (3.40 ERA over 39.2 innings)! But when you have three other starters suffer season-ending injuries and experience IL stints from two other arms, you play with the hand you’re dealt. For the Orioles, that has required an extended run in the rotation for Irvin.
And if we are honest, it has gone quite well all things considered! Through half of a major league season, Irvin has been essentially a replacement level starting pitcher. While that may not feel great against the backdrop of a team vying for a World Series title, it’s important to understand that those sorts of pitchers do not grow on trees.
Think back to the Orioles of 2019 through 2021. This version of Irvin would have been the easy number two behind John Means at the time, when the organization was simply looking for someone with a pulse and an ability to survive five innings every night. Times have certainly changed in Baltimore, and that level is no longer acceptable week-to-week, but that has not made the skillset irrelevant. Irvin has done his job. It might just be time to re-think things.
The Orioles do have some immediate alternatives.
Dean Kremer is due back from the IL sometime soon. He last pitched in Triple-A on Thursday and threw 75 pitches. The results weren’t great (4.1 innings, four runs, six hits, two walks, five strikeouts, two home runs), but it will be more about velocity, control, and how he bounces back physically.
The combination of upcoming off days (including the all star break) plus a bullpen that suddenly has a number of optionable arms could allow the Orioles to be more aggressive with pitching moves over the next two weeks. Irvin could still start once or twice, but there would be no need to let him face a lineup three times. Instead, Brandon Hyde could mix-and-match with guys like Matt Krook and Bryan Baker knowing that they can be sent back to the minors with no repercussion. They could also do the inverse and use the opener approach to save Irvin from facing the top of an opposing order at least once.
But all of this simply feels like buying time until the trade deadline arrives and the Orioles can more appropriately address their rotation. Mike Elias hoped to enter the playoffs with Corbin Burnes, Kyle Bradish, and Grayson Rodriguez has his top three arms. That won’t be possible, and it’s foolish to think the club could adequately replace Bradish—a Cy Young-level pitcher—during the season. But they should do something to bring in another arm that is capable of starting a playoff game.
Irvin has been a good solider for the Orioles this season. At times, he has been productive and helped the team get to where they are today. Ultimately, he isn’t a long-term rotation piece. He belongs in the bullpen. But his struggles recently have confirmed what has been clear since Bradish was placed on the IL a few weeks ago. Elias needs to go and get another legitimate arm for this rotation.