Will Mike Elias be ready to step up for a big move for a quality starting pitcher with team control remaining?
The trade deadline is just five days, and the needs are clear: some help for the starting rotation, plus a competent eighth-inning bridge guy who can occasionally play closer. Two losses to the last-place Marlins in a row (coming on shoddy outings by Albert Suárez and Chayce McDermott, respectively) aren’t changing that impression at all.
All that being said, the Orioles have done a good job with pitching upgrades this year: consider Burch Smith, with a 0.00 ERA and 6 strikeouts in four outings. Or Vinny Nittoli, also unblemished after four innings, with 3 strikeouts, zero walks, and two hits allowed. Or fixing Keegan Akin, who had a rocky start to the season but has 16 strikeouts in his last 10 innings.
For several years now, the Orioles have demonstrated excellence at producing quick and cheap patches. But this season’s ask is greater because the team is more talented—the team is finally appearing on these “Teams that should be buyers at the trade deadline” lists—but also because the starting pitching needs are more acute.
The tricky thing is, we don’t know what the Orioles are likely to do here, despite all the pressure to buy, because under the current administration they have no history at all of doing so.
Take last season. At the deadline the Orioles were 66-41, the very first season they’d exploded as AL East contenders, and they made two trade deadline acquisitions: Shintaro Fujinami and Jack Flaherty. Fujinami was cheap, a half-season rental that cost the team pitching prospect Easton Lucas, who, now a member of the Tigers organization, has been highly ineffective. Flaherty turned out to be a costly bust: for a 1-3 record and 6.75 ERA in nine games Baltimore gave up infield César Prieto (their No. 16 prospect at the time), Drew Rom (No. 18) and Zack Showalter.
Ironically, the Orioles’ best midsummer signing ended up being a waiver wire pickup: they acquired Jacob Webb on August 7, and he’s clearly offered the most value of the Fuji/Flaherty/Webb trio. Of course, Flaherty clearly was a rehabbable talent, as he’s showing this year, with a 0.964 WHIP in 100 innings pitched. Maybe he’ll come back to the Orioles as a lower-cost starter option. Who knows.
Past offseason deals are of little help in comparing, either, because the former tend to be better value (since selling teams can’t squeeze buyers in urgent need, and also because many winter contracts go out to free agents not under team control). Even so, these Orioles have not yet made the big winter signing, either. Instead, with their farm system depth, they’ve signed mostly backups like James McCann or bullpen depth you’ve never heard of, like Tucker Davidson.
Corbin Burnes, acquired in a winter trade with Milwaukee, was essentially the first indication we’ve had that the current Orioles are in “win-now” mode and would spend to prove it. Despite that, it’s a slightly less showy deal because he’s only here on a one-year, sort of “prove it” contract (not “prove it or we’re sending you to the minors,” but “prove how big a long-term contract you deserve as a rotation No. 1”). For him, the Orioles gave up pitcher DL Hall and infielder Joey Ortiz. Hall has been on the shelf with a knee injury, but Ortiz is showing promise over in Milwaukee.
After that, we can’t compare the present dilemma with any other years of Elias’s tenure, because the Orioles weren’t competing then.
However, to the extent that the Houston Astros represent a bust-to-boom playbook we know Baltimore has imitated (and again, recall that current O’s GM Mike Elias served as the Astros’ director of scouting and assistant GM in the crucial years), let’s see if we can learn something from their approach to midseason trades:
A couple of things emerge from this data. One, it’s mostly pitching that’s being purchased in the dog days of summer. So the Astros, too, were not in the business of drafting throwers high, or drafting them well.
Second, the pitchers in question are often stars, and so while they’re not cheap, the deals were not necessarily long ones. For instance, the Astros acquired ace Justin Verlander for the first time in August 2017, taking on $20 million of his $28 million salary through 2019 (the Detroit Tigers agreed to pay the rest). They’d end up signing him to a two-year extension after that.
Third, for the most part the trades panned out. True, there were non-legendary moves: Jake Odorizzi was an unremarkable addition to the eventual 2022 World Champions; Yimi García, a half-season rental; Aaron Sanchez had a 6.59 FIP in his one season with Houston; Scott Kazmir’s ERA jumped two runs after coming over from Oakland; and Mike Fiers pitched to a 4.59 as an Astro and also helped leak the trash can banging scandal. Too bad, so sad.
But the Astros did pull off stunning success in nabbing All-Star closers Roberto Ozuna from Toronto and Josh Hader from Milwaukee at the deadline. Another pickup, Ryan Pressly had a 0.77 ERA for them in 26 games down the stretch in 2018. Veteran right hander Zack Greinke delivered good work in three seasons in Houston, going 22-10 with a 3.89 ERA. And Yordan Alvarez, acquired in 2016 as a prospect in a little-noticed deal, ended up being an absolute steal and a franchise cornerstone, Rookie of the Year in 2019 and a three-time All Star.
Fourth and finally, the verdict is more mixed as to whether these acquisitions pushed the Astros over the edge. The 2017 World Series win, after Houston famously nabbed Verlander at the last possible minute, suggests that the deal made a difference. But in 2022, Jake Odorizzi gave them little in the postseason, and sadly, it can’t be said that well-liked former Oriole Trey Mancini or backup catcher Christian Vazquez were difference-makers.
So what does history tell us will happen for Baltimore at the trade deadline? If we use the Astros’ dynastic rise as a model, it tells us that “overpaying” for pitching at the deadline is common practice, not a bug; that often you get what you pay for; and that despite that, you still need loads of talent and a little luck to win the whole thing. The Orioles will swing some sort of a deal, that much is almost certain. After that, we’ll have to see.