The swingman returned to the big leagues after spending the majority of his career overseas. Can Suárez stretch his feel-good story into 2025?
After a grueling 2024, the Orioles understand the need for pitching depth throughout a 162-game season. Corbin Burnes provided a sense of stability last year when Kyle Bradish, John Means, Tyler Wells, and Grayson Rodriguez all missed significant time due to injury.
Burnes left Baltimore over the offseason, but the Birds strengthened the back of their rotation by adding Charlie Morton and Tomoyuki Sugano. Rodriguez and Zach Eflin returned return to lead a rotation that will likely include Dean Kremer.
Cade Povich, Chayce McDermott, and Trevor Rogers all planned to arrive in Sarasota hoping to steal a job. With Bradish and Wells likely to return at some point during the season, Albert Suárez appeared destined for the bullpen in 2025.
The optics changed quickly after pitchers and catchers reported to Florida. The Orioles announced that both Rogers and McDermott suffered injuries that would delay their ramp up this spring. On the same day, Brandon Hyde announced that Suárez would be stretched out as a starter.
Suárez fits the bill of a traditional swingman. However, his path to Baltimore was hardly routine. The 35-year-old spent several years pitching in Japan and South Korea before joining Baltimore as a non-roster invite to spring training in 2024. Suárez was quickly called into action after the aforementioned injuries, and the journeyman delivered with back-to-back scoreless outings of 5.2 innings.
Suárez spent a month working as the longman in the bullpen, but the injuries kept on coming. He rejoined the staff at the end of May and made 24 starts over the course of the season.
The Venezuelan native immediately emerged as one of the best feel-good stories in recent memory, but everyone kept waiting for his right arm to turn back into a pumpkin. It never happened. Suárez finished the season with a 9-7 record, 3.70 ERA, 1.294 WHIP, 4.24 FIP and 101 ERA+.
The season felt like a fairy tale run, but Suárez only performed like a league-average pitcher. He gave Baltimore everything it could have asked for, but can he do it again?
- ZiPS: 106 IP, 4.58 ERA, 4.70 FIP, 0.5 WAR
- Steamer: 80.2 IP, 4.10 ERA, 4.14 FIP, 0.4 WAR
Both projections expect Suárez to provide less value compared to his 1.4 fWAR over 133 innings last year. They both predicted .500 records at 5-5 and 4-4, but projected wins hold even less weight than actual wins in the year 2025.
It’s difficult to project stats for a pitcher that could serve as a starter or a reliever. Suárez will have every opportunity to make the team again in 2025, but his role throughout the season will largely be determined by the health of his teammates.
The case for the over
McDermott and Rogers have already suffered injuries, and more will likely follow at some point. Charlie Morton has found a way to stay healthy over the last several seasons, but Father Time could come the 41-year-old at any point. Sugano will make his MLB debut at age 35 after working in a six-man rotation for the duration of his career.
Suárez ate 133 innings last year. The righty just experienced the closest thing he’s had to a normal offseason in almost a decade, and that time should pay dividends.
“I’m really impressed with how he looks and the work he put in this offseason,” Hyde said on Tuesday. “He’s throwing the ball really, really well right now. He’s a smart guy who’s been around.”
The case for the under
Suárez had an early advantage against hitters last season, but the tape was out by the All Star break. He posted a 2.82 ERA in the first half, but that number jumped to 4.69 after the Midsummer Classic.
The Birds turned to Suárez out of necessity last season, but his leash could grow shorter if he struggles out of the gate in 2025. Both Povich and McDermott have less to prove in Triple-A than they did last April. The Orioles are determined to see if Rogers holds any value after acquiring the lefty last summer, and the O’s hope to have Bradish and Wells back in the second half.
Suárez overcame significant odds by returning to the big leagues after a seven-year hiatus. Now that he’s back, there seems to be little point in doubting him.