Things have been improving for the Orioles lineup, but they remain far short of what their expectations were coming into the season.
The Orioles’ recent run has been fun. A pair of series sweeps and a solid road trip have improved the vibes around the team and given fans a chance to dream a little bit. Getting back into playoff contention after their disastrous start would defy the odds in a historical way, but it’s not impossible, and it’s worth chasing until at least the trade deadline.
That said, a lot things would need to go right for the Orioles in order to make that happen. And now that the pitching staff has sorted itself out a little bit, all eyes turn towards what should have been the team’s strength all along: the offense.
In 2024, the Orioles scored the fourth-most runs in baseball. They ranked second in home runs, seventh in batting average (.250), 11th in on-base percentage (.315), third in slugging percentage (.435), and third in wRC+ (115).
This past offseason, it seems the team’s front office expected similar (or better) results in 2025. They swapped out Anthony Santander for Tyler O’Neill, and kept the rest of the lineup almost identical. So far—whether due to injury or general poor performance—it hasn’t worked. The Orioles are 25th in runs scored, 12th in home runs, 22nd in batting average (.238), 26th in on-base percentage (303), 16th in slugging percentage (.388), and 16th in wRC+ (98).
Now, things have been better since May 24, when the Orioles began this recent stretch of improved play. In that time the lineup ranks 13th in runs scored, 14th in home runs, 15th in batting average (.246), 17th in on-base percentage (.312), 16th in slugging percentage (.385), and 15th in wRC+ (99). Progress is nice, but the unit remains a far cry from the elite force they were supposed to be.
The injury excuse is somewhat legitimate. Colton Cowser just got back from a hand fracture that cost him two months. Jordan Westburg is still rehabbing a hamstring injury. O’Neill is on his second IL stint of the season. That’s three hitters you expected to be above-average contributors that you have had to replace for extended periods of time. And don’t forget that Gunnar Henderson essentially missed spring training, which may have led to his slow April (88 wRC+).
But injuries aren’t the only reason that the lineup has struggled. Some of the players simply have not played up to their ability. That includes Henderson producing more like an all-star than an MVP candidate. Adley Rutschman has just gotten out of his May funk, which saw him post a 65 wRC+. Westburg (86 wRC+) and O’Neill (71 wRC+) have both been poor when healthy. Ryan Mountcastle, who is now hurt himself, has just two home runs. And Heston Kjerstad (59 wRC+) and Coby Mayo (26 wRC+) have everyone asking questions about what sort of value the Orioles placed on them in recent trade talks.
No one player is to blame. As a group, the Orioles hitters have failed to live up to their potential. But things are trending in the right direction, and as players like Westburg and O’Neill return and get into form, this offense should get even more dangerous. But if this team is going to get anywhere near playoff contention, they cannot simply be good. The lineup has to be among the game’s best between now and the deadline.
That is because the pitching staff has a pretty clear ceiling on it. They can have moments of brilliance. This recent winning streak was largely a result of their dominance. But it’s not a group you can count on to win too many games on their own. We witnessed it this weekend in Sacramento.
Dean Kremer fell back to earth with five runs over 5.1 innings in Game 1. He had allowed just one run over his previous 11.1 innings. Charlie Morton looked like the April version of himself, lasting just 2.1 innings and coughing up four runs in Game 2. He had won his last two starts in rather dominant fashion. And Tomoyuki Sugano turned in one of his worst starts of the year in the finale.
The rotation has improved drastically from April. They no longer look like the worst group in baseball. They have been downright serviceable since the start of May, and it’s been a top five unit since May 24th. The Orioles would probably be happy if the rotation settled into being somewhere between the 15th and 20th best rotation in baseball, provided that the lineup crushes the opposition.
That plan of mediocre pitching and elite offense was always flawed, but it made some sense in the winter. The thinking had to be that the team would tread water, stick around .500, and then get some rotation reinforcements in the second half of the year.
Kyle Bradish is on track for an August return. The same is true for Tyler Wells. Grayson Rodriguez’s rehab is less clear, but whatever the Orioles get out of him this year feels like a bonus. Add in a trade deadline acquisition, and it is reasonable to think an average rotation in July could level up as the playoffs draw near.
The team’s poor start has upended that plan to a drastic degree. Being .500 or so by the deadline would require the Orioles win over 60% of their games between now and then. It’s possible, but with series against the Tigers, Yankees, and Mets in that stretch it will be a tall task.
Ultimately, the Orioles need to figure out what their lineup is in the season’s final four months. If injuries were the problem, this unit should bounce back and be a juggernaut through the finish line. If the overall construction of the group is flawed, they will continue to scuffle, and that will call into question the entire process by which it was built.
The latter outcome could result in sweeping changes. Those wouldn’t be limited to the field, but also up in the warehouse too, where fresh eyes could do a world of good for a team that has talent but may lack something else.