The outfield is the group that faces the most uncertainty as we near Opening Day, as far as both who will make the roster and what each player’s future holds.
With nine days left to go before Opening Day in Toronto, the Orioles roster seems mostly set. Injuries to Grayson Rodriguez, Andrew Kittredge and Jorge Mateo mean Brandon Hyde and Mike Elias don’t really have any tough decisions in the starting rotation, bullpen or infield. With six spring training games left on the schedule, the only remaining questions surround the Orioles outfield.
Baltimore currently has six outfielders in camp who are already on the 40-man roster. Of those six, three are all but guaranteed to make the trip up to Toronto. Cedric Mullins has been the Opening Day CF each of the last four seasons and should make his fifth straight Opening Day lineup next week.
Colton Cowser, after finishing second in AL ROY voting and being named a Gold Glove finalist, also figures to have his spot in LF nailed down. Finally, after landing a $49M contract as Anthony Santander’s replacement, Tyler O’Neill is also a virtual lock to make the Opening Day 26.
The other three outfielders currently competing for a roster spot are a mixture of a young player looking for his first chance and a pair of veterans looking to reestablish themselves. In 2024, Heston Kjerstad seemed like the next Orioles prospect who was ready to make the leap to everyday player. After being recalled from Norfolk at the end of June, Silent J was hitting .378 with a 1.141 OPS and finally delivering on the potential that saw him drafted No. 2 overall. That progress, and his season as a whole, was derailed on July 12th when the Yankees’ Clay Holmes beaned Kjerstad in the face with a fastball.
The veterans looking to earn a trip to Baltimore are former Athletic Ramón Laureano and ex-Cardinal Dylan Carlson. The two veterans provide different skill sets as potential depth outfielders. Laureano is another lefty masher, like O’Neill, sporting a career .802 OPS against southpaws. Carlson is more similar to Cowser as an outfielder who can provide above-average defense in center and the corners, with the added benefit of being a switch-hitter.
Carlson has been the best of the bunch in the Grapefruit League. The 26-year-old Northern California native leads all O’s with eight walks and has a .459 OBP while slugging .600. Kjerstad has been a middle-of-road performer in Sarasota, going 9-35 (.257) with inconsistent power output. Laureano is bringing up the rear with only six hits in 29 ABs (.207) to go along with 11 Ks.
How Brandon Hyde and Mike Elias choose to round out their group of outfielders may speak not only to their plans for 2025 but beyond. This upcoming season seems like a make-or-break year for Kjerstad. The now 26-year-old only just exhausted his rookie eligibility last season, and despite being drafted in the same class as Jordan Westburg, has just 20% of Westburg’s career ABs.
Despite his limited chances the last two seasons, Kjerstad still has all the tools to be a 30+ HR outfielder. At his best, he’s the player on the roster most capable of replacing the production we saw from Santander the last three seasons. If Kjerstad breaks camp on the roster. and immediately assumes the role of starting RF/DH, that’d be a good indication that Elias, Hyde & Co. envision a bigger role for him moving forward. If Silent J is relegated to a bench role again, the trade speculation will begin to swirl.
Common sense says that Carlson will probably nab the fifth OF spot ahead of Laureano and serve as the Orioles’ primary backup CF. However, it’s not out of the question that Hyde tries to keep Carlson and Laureano so he can bench both Mullins and Cowser against lefties. Hyde has become infamous for over-adjusting his lineups against southpaws. Keeping both Carlson and Laureano would allow him to field a lineup where Gunnar Henderson is the only lefty who plays against LHPs.
Whether both the veteran OFs make the roster, and how big of a role they earn in the regular season, will also speak to the front office’s plans for Mullins. Santander’s departure makes Mullins the franchise’s longest-tenured player, but his exit could only be one season away. Mullins can become a free agent next winter and it’s hard to imagine the Orioles resigning him if he’s only playing against RHPs. Should the O’s keep both Carlson and Laureano, it almost surely condemns the former All-Star to a platoon role.
And as this is still the Mike Elias-led Orioles, we can’t forget about the prospects that will play a big role in the direction of the outfield long-term. Three of the Orioles’ top six prospects are outfielders, and two of them have a chance to begin the 2025 season in Norfolk. Enrique Bradfield Jr. and Vance Honeycutt—the O’s last two first-round picks—also just got done showcasing their electric speed in the Spring Breakout prospect showcase. Should those two or any of the other highly ranked outfield prospects have breakout years in 2025, it could easily push a veteran off the major league roster.
After feeling like Austin Hays, Mullins and Santander would be the Orioles starting outfield for a decade, 2025 officially marks the beginning of a new era on the Camden Yards grass. How the O’s choose to approach their outfield from Game 1 of 162 should tell us a lot about this season and their plans for the future.