The end of the Cleveland series shows how dangerous the O’s can be on the road. With some tough upcoming road series, they’ll need that resilience down the stretch.
This past weekend’s series in Cleveland felt like it would be a referendum on this entire Orioles season. After a flurry of deadline moves, the new look O’s showed up in Progressive Field and immediately fell flat. New starter Trevor Rogers struggled mightily in his Orioles debut in Game 1, new reliever Gregory Soto didn’t look any better in Game 2 and the Guardians cruised to two wins by a combined score of 18-7.
However, instead of shrinking under pressure and disappointment, this reformed roster rose to the occasion and turned the tables in Games 3 and 4. The bats came alive thanks in large part to the new acquired Eloy Jiménez and the newly promoted Jackson Holliday. Prized pitching acquisition Zach Eflin was once again strong in the Game 3 win and the bats backed up a lackluster start from Corbin Burnes to earn a victory in the series finale.
There was so much doom and gloom surrounding the Orioles after going 12-13. The team had stretches where they looked lost at both the plate and on the mound. While the moves at the deadline were plentiful, there was still plenty of concern around Birdland as to whether the additions were enough. If these revamped Orioles had been swept in Cleveland—against a Guardians team also vying for the top spot in the AL—it would have only amplified the feeling that the 2024 Orioles may never reach their full potential.
After fighting back to earn a split, the Birds showed the mettle necessary to not only win the AL East and earn a first-round bye but make noise in the postseason. It is also this feeling—the satisfaction that comes from grinding out a hard-fought road win—that the Orioles will need to chase during the last two months of the season.
It’s an oversimplification to say that the Orioles’ road record the rest of the way will define their regular season. That being said, the O’s ability to earn wins away from Camden Yards will play a massive role in setting Baltimore up for postseason success.
The Orioles, Guardians and Yankees are teams set to battle it out for the top two seeds in the American League. Both Cleveland and New York still have 28 home games left on their schedule, compared to 22 road games for the Guardians and 21 road contests for the Yankees. The Orioles, meanwhile, will play 27 of their remaining 49 games away from Camden Yards.
On the surface, this may seem like a distinct disadvantage for the Birds and their quest to earn a second consecutive No. 1 seed in the AL. This team is built to take advantage of the unique challenges and advantages presented by Camden Yards, so having to play the majority of their games away from the Warehouse is surely a potential hurdle for this Orioles team.
Except, the O’s have actually been better on the road this year than when they’re in front of the Camden Yards faithful. Heading into this week’s trips to Toronto and St. Petersburg, the Orioles have a .611 winning percentage on the road compared to a .576 mark at home. The O’s offense has also been noticeably better away from Camden Yards, as they average half a run more on this road this season than at home.
This increase in offensive production on the road is evident in the splits up and down the O’s lineup. Of the Orioles Top 5 hitters by OPS+ (Gunnar Henderson, Anthony Santander, Ryan O’Hearn, Colton Cowser and Adley Rutschman), every single player has a higher OPS on the road than at Camden Yards. For most, the difference is glaring.
Adley is hitting .300 on the road compared to only .228 at home while having an OPS that is 107 points higher in away games. O’Hearn has the biggest disparity in power output in his home/away splits, with the veteran slugger slugging 134 points higher on the road than at home. Combined, these five hitters average a 91-point OPS bump on the road, and only Cowser has an OPS improvement of less than 80 points on the road.
The O’s will need their lineup to play like it did over the weekend in Cleveland, as their nine remaining road series features three current playoff teams and six with winning records. The O’s will visit the NL West-leading Dodgers at the end of this month, and their last two series of the season are a three-game set in Yankee Stadium before traveling to Minneapolis for a three-game set against the Twins.
Taking a relatively young team on the road for games with playoff implications is usually not a recipe for success. However, this group has never been a typical bunch of youngsters when it comes to their performance on the road. Dating back to last season, these Baby Birds are 85-50 on the road. Those 85 road wins are the most of any team, with the Braves the only other team to win 80+ road games over the last two seasons.
Given their relatively easy remaining home schedule, the Orioles’ ability to maintain that form on the road should ultimately determine their playoff seeding. With a combined opponent winning percentage of .490, the Orioles have the eighth-easiest remaining strength of schedule. However, the combined winning percentage of their remaining road opponents is .511, compared to a .466 winning percentage for their remaining home opponents.
Although the Yankees and Guardians get more home games on their remaining schedule, that doesn’t necessarily make either the favorite to secure the one seed in the AL. Like the Orioles, the Yankees are a better road team than home team, currently leading MLB with 38 road wins this season. New York has the fourth easiest remaining schedule, but they still welcome playoff teams in Cleveland, Kansas City and Baltimore to the Bronx. If New York drops those series to the Guardians or especially the Orioles, that could prove to be the difference in whether or not the Yankees are playing in the Wild Card round.
The run of home games could prove much more advantageous for the Guardians, who currently lead MLB with a .673 winning percentage at home. And yet, while 28 more games at Progressive Field is a welcome sight for Guardians fans, the quality of their opponents could present a problem for Cleveland. While the Orioles and Yankees’ remaining strengths of schedule are in the bottom 10, the Guardians have the sixth-hardest strength of schedule across the last two months.
The Orioles showed incredible resolve this past weekend in Cleveland—playing in a stadium where they’re 37-73 all-time—to fight back and earn a split. If they can show that same fight on the road for the rest of the season, nothing will be out of reach for this Orioles squad.