It’s been an extremely frustrating second half of baseball, but there are upward trends that can be seen with several hitters.
On Thursday night, the O’s found a new way to lose, as Keegan Akin surrendered a game-winning home run in the tenth to rack up his first L of the season. It’s frustrating. The team is mired in inconsistency. For every good pitching performance lately, it feels like there’s a corresponding one when the starter or the bullpen completely lays an egg.
This is true of the offense, as well. June was the Orioles’ best month, when they slashed .273/.333/.513/.847. But August was their worst, at .231/.299/.393/.691, and so far, September has been only slightly better, at .239/.336/.371/.707. Over the last month, the team has gotten negative value at the plate from Adley Rutschman, Colton Cowser, Ryan O’Hearn, James McCann and Coby Mayo. That’s a not-insignificant number of at-bats.
It’d be wrong to sugarcoat it. This is a lot of negative production. But the team can weather several individual player slumps if other bats in the lineup wake up and start carrying them.
It’s saying something that by my count only two Orioles have offensive splits that improved between the first and the second half of the season. The two are Cedric Mullins, who with a .323/.457/.569 slashline in his last 26 games, is far and away the Orioles’ best hitter over the last month, and Anthony Santander, who’s OPS’ing .870 in the second half and hitting for a .303 average in September.
What’s working for these two? Well, Santander hasn’t hit for average this year, but he sure has hit for power. So while his .237 first-half batting average doesn’t look great, a corresponding .804 OPS doesn’t seem too bad. But September has been even better for Tony Taters. Not only did he reach the 40-home run threshold, in the last two weeks he’s hitting .327 with a .924 OPS, eight extra-base hits, and 14 RBI.
What’s defining September at the plate, so far, for Santander? Fastballs, apparently. He’s crushing them, with a season-high .333 average against and .500 slugging. But he’s keeping pace with offspeed pitches, too, so pitchers can’t try to fool him with change-ups.
Meanwhile, after a dreadful first half at the plate, Cedric Mullins’ season has turned around in a hurry. Back in May, Mullins hit .136 in 23 games and struggled to an abysmal .344 OPS. He also struck out in a third of his plate appearances.
What a turnaround since. Over his last 46 games, Mullins’ OPS is .939 and his 196 wRC+ is by far the team’s best. Good swing decisions are helping a lot: Mullins’ chase percentage versus fastballs and breaking balls is the lowest of the season for him. He’s pounding both of these pitches, with a .947 slugging off fastballs and .833 rate off breaking balls.
A less-spectacular turnaround—because he’s been consistently so good—is that of Gunnar Henderson, who is still the team’s clear frontrunner for Most Valuable Oriole, with 8.3 bWAR to his name. Gunnar rode the struggle bus in the heat of summer, his power drying up and his average dropping to .234.
But September has been a different story for the Orioles shortstop. In nine games, he’s averaging .389 with a 1.160 OPS. Last week, he posted a .417 average, 3 home runs, and 5 RBI to bag AL Player of the Week honors.
What’s working for Gunnar right now? Choosiness, for one. He’s swinging at significantly fewer pitches, which is helping him not chase pitches outside the zone. He’s also having his best month hitting offspeed pitches since a hot April. His whiff rate is the lowest it’s been all season, and his exit velocity is the best it’s been since a scalding June.
You’ll remember that June was also the Orioles’ best-hitting month. Henderson is that rare player who can single-handedly carry the offense, with his combination of power and speed. June was also a good month for Santander, whose power can also pick up the team.
The Orioles’ herky-jerky offense has certainly been a test of fans’ patience this fall. But the bright side is, this still looks like a playoff team. And if we squint and envision the Santander-Henderson-Mullins trio staying hot down the stretch, and that Ramón Urías and Jordan Westburg return sometime this month to supply missing power at third and second base, respectively, it looks more like a playoff team that could do something.