Hear me out.
As of today, the trade deadline is eight days away. The Orioles have not pulled off the post-All-Star break winning streak miracle that might have kept them out of selling territory. Mike Elias is going to close some trades between now and then to move the veteran players who aren’t signed for next year.
Over the course of this week, I’m looking at one Oriole who’s likely to be traded and teams who are probably going to be in the market for somebody at that player’s position. On Monday, I started with Ryan O’Hearn. Yesterday, I continued with Cedric Mullins. Up today is Charlie Morton.
On the most basic level, it is absurd to contemplate the idea that a guy who is rocking a 5.58 ERA for the season is going to have any kind of trade value. That’s where Morton sits through 21 games pitched, with some of those games being in relief since he was so bad that he got kicked into the bullpen for most of a month. He is 41 years old, making a $15 million salary, and the easy response to that is, “Of course that’s what happened. He’s old and time finally caught up to him.”
Dig a little deeper and there is a clear dividing line in Morton’s season between his April struggles, when he could not find the strike zone, and the way he’s been pitching ever since he seemed to address those problems. Taking out his first six games, Morton has pitched to a 3.78 ERA this season. There was an even more clear narrative of ongoing improvement up until Morton gave up seven runs in 5.1 innings in his most recent start. He could start twice more before the deadline. We’ll see which way his pitching pushes the narrative.
There are some contenders out there who are having problems with their starting pitching. Even good teams are beset by injuries, by guys who’ve been good in the past and have suddenly fallen apart, and by speculative signings that just aren’t working out.
Teams who feel their postseason position is secure and don’t see Morton as at least a #3 starter probably don’t want him. Teams who need to improve their #4 or #5 in order to get into the postseason at all probably should. If that latter group of teams is particularly interested in getting a pitcher who isn’t going to cost much in the way of prospects – you know, kind of like an Elias-as-buyer “sorta trying to improve a little, but not really” mentality – then Morton, who comes with no commitment beyond this year, will have even more appeal.
The Orioles can and hopefully will absorb some of Morton’s remaining roughly $5 million to either help facilitate a deal happening in the first place or possibly increase the quality of prospect they can fetch in a trade.
Depth chart assessments made using RosterResource at FanGraphs.
Astros
- Guys better than Morton: Hunter Brown (2.57 ERA), Framber Valdez (2.75 ERA), Brandon Walter (3.66 ERA)
- Guys worse than Morton: Colton Gordon (4.46 ERA), Lance McCullers Jr. (6.90 ERA)
With a five game lead in the AL West, the Astros probably don’t feel much need to improve on their rotation to upgrade there. Walter, a rookie, has made all of eight starts at the major league level, and while Houston might want to get a more steady hand for its #3 spot in an eventual postseason series – assuming they get to a best-of-five series – I think it’s safe to say they’re probably not going to view Morton as the guy who they should get to do that.
Yankees
- Guys better than Morton: Max Fried (2.43 ERA), Carlos Rodón (3.10 ERA)
- Guys worse than Morton: Will Warren (4.91 ERA), Marcus Stroman (5.64 ERA)
- Too early to say: Cam Schlittler (prospect, one MLB game)
The Yankees have a $290 million payroll and they might need Charlie Morton as a trade deadline addition. Writing that sentence gave me some schadenfreude. This Schlittler character is a 24-year-old righty who began the season in Double-A, was promoted to Triple-A, and made all of five starts there before being rushed in to fill an MLB-level need. He struck out 35 batters in 23.2 innings for the Yankees AAA affiliate. His first MLB start wasn’t good.
Whether or not Schlittler amounts to much of anything, Morton represents a decently-probable upgrade over Warren (though Warren is underperforming his FIP and may be due to bounce back) and a definite upgrade over Stroman. I’m not sure whether the Yankees will look to drop Stroman, though he has been bad, because he’s got a player option for $18 million for 2026 and even the big-budget Yankees can succumb to the sunk cost fallacy when there’s another year of money still owed to the player.
Red Sox
- Guys better than Morton: Garrett Crochet (2.19 ERA), Brayan Bello (3.23 ERA), Lucas Giolito (3.59 ERA)
- Guys worse than Morton: Richard Fitts (4.86 ERA), Walker Buehler (5.72 ERA)
There were more than a few people over this past offseason who wanted to see the Orioles take a shot at signing Buehler, who went in for a one-year contract with Boston for the amount he would have gotten if he’d been a qualifying offer guy, $21.05 million. Many of those were disappointed in if not angry at Mike Elias for not signing Buehler, who after a 5.38 ERA a year ago would have been an expensive reclamation project. Here at the end of July, it does not look bad for the Orioles to have not signed him.
Boston is a team that’s right on the bubble and a marginal improvement in its #4 or #5 starter spot for the next two months could make a real difference for them. Entering Tuesday’s games, the Red Sox were in the third wild card spot, for which several teams (if not the Orioles) remain in striking distance. They can’t just give away 20% of their remaining games. Although having said that, the Red Sox are actually 9-8 in games started by Buehler thanks to the accident of run support.
I would say they should do better than Fitts too, but, as Kermit says in the meme where he’s sipping the tea, that’s none of my business.
Cubs
- Guys better than Morton: Matthew Boyd (2.34 ERA), Shota Imanaga (2.40 ERA)
- Guys about on Morton’s level: Colin Rea (3.80 ERA), Cade Horton (4.06 ERA)
- Fifth starter: They don’t even have a steady one right now
The Cubs led the NL Central by four games as recently as July 6, a lead that melted away thanks to the Brewers winning 11 games in a row. Whether or not they would want Morton probably has something to do with how long they think Jameson Taillon will be on the injured list due to a calf strain. Cubs manager Craig Counsell said “he’s going to miss a significant amount of time” when Taillon was placed on the IL on July 4.
Chicago is likely to be safe to at least make the postseason, since it has a 7.5 game lead on any of the teams chasing an NL wild card spot. There’s value for them in winning the division and possibly getting a bye through the best-of-three wild card round. Adding Morton might be a low-risk kind of move to help solidify that as long as Taillon’s out. They don’t need to count on him in October. They just need some cheap help to get there in the best spot they can.
Giants
- Guys better than Morton: Robbie Ray (2.92 ERA), Logan Webb (3.08 ERA), Landen Roupp (3.27 ERA)
- Guys worse than Morton: Hayden Birdsong (4.80 ERA), Justin Verlander (4.99 ERA)
I will just go ahead and guess that the Giants are not going to supplant one child of 1983 (Verlander) with another (Morton), and they are probably also not going to have two of the three remaining 1983-born MLBers – Jesse Chavez of the Braves is the third – in their rotation as they try to rally from a recent rough patch to get into a wild card spot. Birdsong, who is only 23, was great through May, bad in June, and worse still so far in July.
Cardinals
- Guys better than Morton: Nobody
- Guys about on Morton’s level: Michael McGreevy (3.81 ERA in 4 starts), Sonny Gray (4.04 ERA), Matthew Liberatore (4.13 ERA)
- Guys worse than Morton: Andre Pallante (4.71 ERA) Erick Fedde (4.83 ERA), Miles Mikolas (5.20 ERA)
The “Nobody” next to guys better than Morton speaks for itself. The only pitcher they can say they’ve got with an ERA under 4 is a rookie who’s pitched in nine games in his career. The Cardinals are not likely to ask me, but with both Fedde and Mikolas in the final year of their contracts, they’ve got to get those guys out of there if they’re serious about trying to push for the postseason.
At 3.5 games back headed into Tuesday’s games, plus two other teams at 3.5 games back, the Cardinals are in the 20-25% range for making the postseason. In a way, I think this makes them ideal for Morton or somebody like him, because he’s not going to cost that much. Pony up a rookie-level lottery ticket like Branneli Franco with confidence that the Orioles will not develop a pitching prospect and make you regret this four years later.
**
You could maybe squint and see a case for Morton for a couple of the teams I haven’t listed, but I think the above list is the contenders who should be looking for starting pitchers and even a high-3 ERA Morton would be an improvement.
This does depend on some team viewing Morton as being likely to perform at a high-3 or even low-4 ERA level for the rest of the season. How he pitches in his last two starts before the deadline will probably influence who thinks that. Orioles fans who want to see Morton moved will be particularly hoping for a good outing from him tomorrow.