Elias is shifting into sell mode, and the Orioles have plenty of pieces to move.
This past weekend was not a great development for anyone that still hoped the Orioles would be buyers at the upcoming trade deadline. The Birds lost two of three to the Rays, one of the many teams that they are chasing for a wild card spot, and they fell to 8.5 games outside of the playoff picture altogether.
O’s GM Mike Elias had already leaned towards selling with his trade of Bryan Baker earlier in the month, but left the door open for the team to rebound. It’s been 10 days since then, and the Orioles have lost consecutive series. While it is still mathematically possible for them to make the playoffs, their odds are only getting worse.
Elias clarified his position over the weekend. He told MLB Network Radio “We’re not interested in changing the foundation of the team, but to the degree that we have players that interest other clubs, who are coming towards the end of their contracts, we’ve got to listen to that. That’s what we’re spending our time on now.”
“Changing the foundation of the team” never seemed to be on the table anyway. There have been rumors of the Orioles considering a trade of Félix Bautista, but that is a far cry from moving someone like Gunnar Henderson or Jordan Westburg, core players that are under team control for years to come.
On the flip side, most teams that deem themselves out of contention choose to sell off their expiring contracts. This is not a revelatory position to have. There’s no good reason to hold onto players like that unless you believe the player could be worth a qualifying offer, and you would rather have the draft pick over the potential prospect return.
All of this information coming together seemed like a good time to set a baseline of expectations heading into the deadline. Who’s going, who’s staying, and who could be somewhere in between.
You will notice that not every single player on the 40-man roster is listed here. While fringy relievers and backup catchers are important to have around, teams aren’t planning around them. Their value on the trade market doesn’t merit too much consideration here.
Untouchable
Gunnar Henderson, Jackson Holliday, Jordan Westburg, Colton Cowser, Adley Rutschman, Coby Mayo
This is the core of the organization. If the Orioles are going to be good again next year, they will need to lean on this group of six heavily.
Yes, that includes Rutschman, who has had a tough 12 months but remains one of the league’s better overall catchers. Samuel Basallo could end up as a star, but there are enough questions about his defense that the Orioles cannot assume he will be able to be a full-time catcher anytime soon.
Mayo is an odd fit here since he has not performed well at the major league level yet. But it wasn’t so long ago that he was a top prospect, and he is likely to get oodles of playing time in the season’s final two months. The Orioles aren’t in the business of trading away talents like that.
Would need to be blown away by an offer
Trevor Rogers, Félix Bautista, Dean Kremer, Kyle Bradish
Pitching is likely to be a theme for the Orioles this coming offseason. The team needed a lot more of it early in 2025, and they cannot go into 2026 with similar issues. So it would make little sense to trade away many of the names here. Between Rogers, Kremer, and Bradish the O’s have the makings of a solid rotation, and Bautista looks like a lockdown closer once again. Keep the stable together unless someone turns your head.
No reason to move right now
Yennier Cano, Cade Povich, Grayson Rodriguez, Ryan Mountcastle, Albert Suárez, Tyler Wells
If things were going well for these players, you might consider trading them for a hefty return. They aren’t going to be the tip of the spear on a playoff run, but they sure can be helpful. The unfortunate reality is that they are all either hurt, underperforming, or some combination of the two.
If healthy, Mountcastle could be the most likely Oriole to get traded this winter. He is going through arbitration one last time, and it is possible that Mayo takes first base for himself in August and September. But for now, it would be better for him and the Orioles to prove that he is healthy.
Moving on out
Seranthony Domínguez, Gregory Soto, Charlie Morton, Ryan O’Hearn, Cedric Mullins
While nothing is guaranteed, it would be a surprise to see the Orioles hold onto any of these players. Each of them is in the final year of team control, and would seem to be attractive additions to any contender.
Domínguez and Soto will be easy to move. Everyone needs middle relief help. Morton should have a similarly large market given his experience and improvement since April.
Position players are always tougher fits. O’Hearn brings modest positional versatility and a bat at the top of its game, so there should be several offers. Mullins is a bit squishier. His range and base-running remain impressive, but his bat has fallen off. He may only be viewed as a fourth outfielder/pinch runner at this point. Any sort of trade return is likely to be minimal. Maybe he could be packaged with one of the relievers to maximize the offer.
Could go either way
Zach Eflin, Tomoyuki Sugano, Ramón Urías, Ramón Laureano, Andrew Kittredge, Jorge Mateo, Keegan Akin
This is a grab bag of players that could find themselves somewhere other than Baltimore to begin August.
Eflin and Sugano both seem like intriguing trade options, but it’s complicated. Eflin has not been good this year, and he has also been hurt a few times. Plus, he could be a QO candidate that makes sense to hold on to and see if you can improve rather than accepting what is likely to be a minuscule return at the point. Sugano has struggled since early June, and the league may prefer more proven options. On top of that, someone has to pitch for the Orioles in August and September. It could more valuable to have Sugano do that rather than over-extending a young pitcher.
Urías, Laureno, and Kittredge can be back with the Orioles in 2026. Urías would be in his final year of arbitration while Laureano and Kittredge have team options. All of them have filled their roles admirably, so it tracks that the Orioles would be happy to have them all back next year. Conversely, that added control gives more value to the players.
Mateo and Akin are included because both could help a playoff team. But they are also hurt, which makes a trade difficult. Mateo is a particularly interesting one. He is a free agent at the end of the year, and his baserunning is valuable for a playoff team. But the injury he is dealing with is a hamstring, so it is possible he won’t be truly ready at any point this year.
Bottomline
If the Orioles stick to Elias’ stated goal—trading away expiring contracts, holding onto their foundation—then expectations for the influx of young talent should be relatively muted. But at the very least it should help reinforce the mid-tier of the organization’s farm system. Pair that with a big draft class from this past week, and the Orioles could be sufficiently re-tooled to make future trades and keep that “pipeline” talent moving to Birdland.